This weekend is a great study in public vs. syndicate plays. Take the CIN @ STL game, which has seen an astounding 96% of volume bets placed on Cincy. What has all that volume moved the line? A whopping half point from an open of 6 to 6.5. Similar stories can be seen with a whole slew or big road favorites, including DAL, NO, TEN, GB, and DET. I would be careful with Det and GB this week, although I do like the square overs in both games.

I do believe the syndicate money does have it wrong this week on DAL, NO, and CIN in particular. They see value in the home ugly dogs, with overinflated and biased lines. While that may be true in some "true lines", my home dog ratings system has these three teams as double digit winners in all 3 cases. I take 20 different metrics for each team and compare them against each other to see how each offense matches up against each defense. These 3 games should all go the publics way easily, starting with Dallas tonight. Drew Brees is going to light up the MIN secondary, and convert possessions into TDs. The Cowboys havent been able to cover anything, especially a number like 7 on the road, but TB's awful D plays right into the strength of the Cowboys O, and they will win this game going away. CIN is a bit of a different story, as its domination of STL comes from their D vs. STL's offense. CIN will be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, control Steven Jackson, and force Kellen Clemons to beat them with an awful offensive line. I don't agree at all with the syndicates huge play on STL and will be going against them very strong here. The line is heavily inflated here, but I feel strongly the public can keep betting CIN at any number and they will come away cashing tickets. I am a little more leery of TEN. I did take them at -6, but wouldn't take them at 7. The best play in that game is the Under IMO for the 1st half.

I am also sticking with HOU again this week after being grateful for that last second cover. For the under specials that just keep on winning we have 2 this week, PIT/SF and SEA/CHI. They keep on cashing. Their is a 3rd with Arz/Cle that I will play, just for less units. I do like the over in SD/BAL, GB/KC, and DAL/TB. I also like SEA plus the points over CHI, and think they will pull of the upset to win that game outright. Finally ARZ will dispose of CLE and cover, although I am not thrilled with the inflated price. They will however cover making this a very nice squares weekend.