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A few writeups with some info.......
Been getting a few private requests for game information and am always glad to help. I gave these to a forum member earlier this morning who was looking for information for some SU plays. I don't know how much they will help the guy but thought I would paste them in here in case anyone else wanted the info.
As promised:
Detroit @ Oakland
Might as well give you the toughest one first. These two teams mirror each other in so many ways. To me there are so many variables (penalties and undisciplined play) that can throw all handicapping out the window quickly.
What I could find is that the injury situation for both teams is getting better. Detroit is expected to get CB’s Chris Houston back and Eric Wright will play. The safety position is still a concern and I do not think Louis Delmas is ready. Up front Suh is back of course but Nick Fairley is a game time decision and Lawrence Jackson is out.
Running back Kevin Smith has practiced 3 days in a row which is great news for the Lions.
For the Raiders the wide out positon was a major concern but is a better picture as well. Denarius Moore has practiced the last 3 but is not quite 100% with that nagging foot injury.
I don’t like Oakland’s ability to control the line of scrimmage of late. Michael Bush has produced nothing at all in his last three as teams have had an extra man up front to control the run game. I do not think that teams respect Carson Palmers ability to throw the deep ball. His accuracy has been terrible when going downfield. We all remember his last days in Cincinnati where his arm strength was poor and though it seems better, accuracy is poor.
On defense, everyone the Raiders have played in the last 4 has gouged them on the ground. Even mediocre guys like Marion Barber, Reggie Bush and Ryan Grant posted large Yds/PA rushing. Defensive Tackle Richard Seymour has not been healthy of late with a bum knee and has missed a lot of practice time. In some games of late he has played mainly on passing downs. Now that Kevin Smith seems to be relatively healthy I like the Lions to rush the ball better than Oakland. SS Michael Huff is not likely gonna play and that does not help either.
Raiders at home this year have lost to Denver and KC and let Cleveland hang around and cover. The Lions have won some good road games and are 4-2 away. I think they are better suited to win the line of scrimmage and have a good shot to win in Oakland.
I will not be playing this game in any fashion. Line opened at -1 Raiders. I am seeing Detroit -1.5 in some places as I am putting this together. That extra .5 is telling.
Miami @ Buffalo.
This one is no easy pickings either. It really is not even handicappable until we know whether QB Matt Moore and even more importantly LT Jake Long can play. If Long does not go my guess is Moore will not go either as whoever starts at QB will be at risk of getting killed. Even with All Pro Long in the lineup the Dolphins have given up a ton of sacks (44). RG Vernon Carey is also questionable. He was the likely candidate to slide over to Long’s spot. C Maurkice Pouncey lost almost 20 pounds being ill a few weeks back and is not the same. Marc Columbo who the Cowboys released last year should not be playing in the league. He is that bad.
Even Buffalo, whose pass rush is terrible, should be able to take advantage of this line if Long can’t go. Off the street signee J.P. Losman would replace Moore. In my mind he is the worst QB left in the league still getting a paycheque.
I am not sure how long you have to wait before you have to play these. We should be able to get some information on who travelled to Buffalo with the team. If everyone travels we will have to wait until 11:30 tomorrow to find out who is active.
If those guys play we will have to go back and start over here. That Miami defense is good and can change a game on its own.
Needless to say, there is no line on this game and we probably won’t see one until tomorrow.
NY Jets @ Philly
Neither one of these teams impress me much. The Jets are nowhere near as good as the game scores indicated in the last 3 and two of those wins (Buffalo and Washington) were outright garbage. Philly last week looked better with Vick but that game was decided by the injuries to Moore and Long more than anything else.
What is important to note is the “ground and pound” style of play that the Jets have employed has been effective. Philly is not good against that style of play. Case in point was the Seattle game. Seattle has also recently switched to a run first approach, quite successfully I might add; they ripped Philly apart on the ground. Lynch averaged 6.7 a carry in that one. Reggie Bush had even better numbers than that last week.
That is going to be the game plan again. Shonn Greene and more Shonn Greene. That limits Sanchez’ notion for throwing the ball to the other guys as well.
Conversely I like the Jets run D of late and did not like McCoy’s efforts last week against a very similar 3/4 defensive set of the Dolphins.
Jim Leonhard is a big loss for the Jets here, especially against Vick. That really throws a wrench in this one.
Another I won’t be playing in any form. The line shows some signs of coming off the key number of 3 here, currently heavily oiled to the Jets @ -119. Heritage, the last book able to take heavy American action is already @ -2.5 which is an indicator that those in the know are favoring that side.
The common thought process amongst the serious players is that the Jets may be able to control the line of scrimmage and limit Marck Sanchez to more of a game management role. On defense they will be able to limit McCoy enough to force Vick to attack those corners which is always a risky deal. Brodney Pool is going to have to shadow Vick and leave those corners on an island. They can certainly handle that responsibility.
Pittsburgh @ San Francisco.
Finally a game on which I do have more than an opinion. I am still waiting on the availability of Ben to make my play. He did practice yesterday, was extremely limited but Ben is probably the toughest QB of this era. For him not to play he would have to be run over by a truck............ and a train. Charlie Batch would go instead.
I don’t mind Charlie he has a ton of experience, still has some mobility and has done well in the past as a replacement for Pittsburgh. He has been in the system for years and will show no unfamiliarity with the playbook that is often the case for emergency replacements. Batch has also had more than enough time to prepare here. I am half hoping he plays and puts more money on the Niner side.
Lots to note here. San Francisco has played (by Jeff Sagarin rankings) the easiest schedule in the league this year. I have heard many opinions on this but I do not heed anything but the posted number. I consider Sagarin’s rankings on anything much more accurate than any opinion. The Steelers schedule is ranked 18th. Whenever I encounter a difference of more than 10 in my work I always gravitate to the side with the lower number and go backwards from there. Does not make it a play until the game is handicapped but it is an indication that side may be a play.
Much is going to be made of the Pittsburgh defensive injuries. I am not one to knee jerk when I see injuries to the linebacking corps of this team. The scheme has been in place for so long in Pittsburgh that everyone knows their responsibilities. There has been a ton of game opportunity for the understudies this year that they are not the liability many would have you believe.
The Steelers are going to blitz Mr. Smith in the same manner that the Ravens did. Smith has never performed against the blitz and my guess is that he will not again this week. The Niner’s line is a bit dinky and vulnerable to the blitzing schemes employed against them. Of extreme importance to note that blind side protection will be an issue this week with LT Joe Staley not expected to play with a concussion. Someone is going to have to help on that side. Another important injury that will be overlooked is FB Bruce Miller. His knee is wonky and he is a game time decision. In games that Moran Norris played this year to replace Miller, Frank Gore averaged less than 3 yards a carry. Those were all against similar 3/4 schemes of Dallas, Baltimore and Seattle.
Playing against that Pittsburgh scheme without your starting LT and starting FB is not an ideal situation.
On defense the Niners did not seem to be affected by the absence of Patrick Willis last week. I do not think he will play again on Sunday. I really like Willis but am iffy about factoring too much into his absence again. The Steelers run game is spotty and not much more than what Arizona offered last week. Heath Miller may have a little extra room on the cross. What I am concerned about is that secondary for the Niners. They are suspect and prone to the big play. The speed burners that the Steelers have in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown could expose that secondary weakness.
I am going to more than likely be on the Steelers this coming Monday. As always I will wait to see the inactive reports before making a play on this one. I am not sure what I am gonna get but am hoping the injury situation for Pitt buys me some value on their side.
I usually only play early when I get confirmation on personal available and recommend strongly that anyone else do the same. If you stay on top of these reports you will get in ahead of most moves. I have 5 outs to use and can usually find value somewhere.
Good luck with these and all the rest of your plays.
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Originally Posted by p19101
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