Originally Posted by
Serbone
At this point, Atlanta will be a HUGE bet for me. Hate to lay this many points, ever, but this is a spot to do so.
As earlier stated, people see Jax's 41 pts last week... but TB had 7 (SEVEN) turnovers, 14 pts were direct TD fumble runbacks, and TB overall is a mess, DL is shambles, QB Freeman is banged up and, for that matter, "off" anyway, and TB may have quit on their coach. He might be on his way out. SO, Jax victory at home against a team that is falling apart is not that impressive.
With Jax having a not ready for prime time QB, Gabbert, on artificial turf he will get harrassed, he will be good some day but he is very very tentative back there now, the game will be even faster on AT, and their WR corp is inadequate. If they get behind, a sack, a fumble, an INT or two.
Falcons will be primed for stopping the run, Jax's only hope is to get Maurice Jones Drew 150 yards. He won't.
Jax has banged up "D", 2 DL out, LB out, and several DB's out. Rivers ate them alive despite 3 of his OL out, including 2 Pro Bowlers.
WR Jones is back to full speed, THAT IS A KEY, so QB Ryan will have plenty of targets to air it out, go deep in the nice dome, then run the ball when they have the lead, mix in some throws.
The Falcons will be playing with playoff intensity with 5 losses, fighting for a wild card berth, they cannot take this game lightly, while Jax, on the road, with a lame duck coach, may not play 60 minutes.
They lost some games in tough spots against solid clubs, @ Bears, GB, NO in OT, @ Houston; they lost @ TB, though, earlier in the yr, not good, but that was before TB lost its DT's.
Back door covers are always possible, but Jax is not built for that right now, and, again, unlike Detroit and some teams Falcons can run the ball with a lead and keep the cover, especially against a bottom tier QB.
National TV Thursday night home game, I will wait for updates tomorrow but this looks like another rare HUGE play for me.
Falcons!