1. #1
    Stanley77
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    Kansas City Chiefs +13.5

    This is the first time I started a thread. Anyway, correct me if I'm wrong, but if the Green Bay Packers cover the point spread against the Kansas City Chiefs next week, then they'll be the first team to sweep straight up and at the spread against a division consecutive times. Back in 2007, the Packers went 4-0 SU and ATS against the AFC West. Right now, they're 3-0 SU and ATS after beating the Oakland Raiders today. I think there's a system here of betting against a team if they sweep straight up and at the spread against a certain division. The same goes for betting on team that got swept straight up and at the spread against a certain division.

    Not only that, but this play also fits under the "50-Point Swing" strategy from Dan Gordon's book, Beat The Sports Books. This is when you bet on the point spread on a team that lost against team that won and when you add up their losing margin and their winning margin and it's at least 50 points, it's a play. So the Packers won by 30 points and the Chiefs lost by 27 points today. So 30 plus 27 equals 57. So the Chiefs are the play here. This strategy wins most of the time, but not all the time. The last time there was a loss under this strategy was in 2007.

    Don't get me wrong, but I think the Chiefs might win straight up here even with this point spread. I don't think the Packers will go undefeated on the road and they'll probably lose sometime here. The Chiefs are coming off getting swept straight up and at the spread against the AFC East (they went 0-4 SU and ATS against the AFC East). Also, the Packers are on a 10-game winning streak SU and ATS against the AFC West. The last time they lost to an AFC West team was in 2003 against the Chiefs. Right now, I say that the play should be +13.5 on the Chiefs.

  2. #2
    rain_e
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    The Chiefs might win straight up? Do you know who their QB is? Lol

  3. #3
    Stanley77
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    I'm just saying. Upsets usually happen. Plus, the key word is "might". I didn't say that they are gonna win straight up.

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