If anyone watched the last efforts of both Tampa and Jacksonville on defense, this one does not need a whole lot of explanation.
Jacksonville is quite simply out of players in the defensive secondary and extremely thin up front as well. They have put three CB's on injured reserve in the last few weeks, William Middleton, Rashean Mathis and Derek Cox. They were forced to go with Ashton Youbooty signed a few weeks ago off the street and an undrafted rookie Kevin Rutland. Those guys got lit up like the fourth of July. They have nothing more to offer this week.
To make matters worse the front line is not healthy enough to generate any push inside. Matt Roth is out again, Aaron Kampman is now on IR, DE John Chick is done and Terrance Knighton is not healthy but will play.
It looks like Freeman will go for Tampa, he took all the reps yesterday and looked good according to coach Mathis. He and Mike Williams will probably have big days. LeGarrette will as well.
If anyone say Tampa's debacle against Carolina they saw a team that can't stop the run. Their linebackers are slow as hell and their gap control up front is terrible. Jonathon Stewart averaged 5.7 a carry. Now they face a very rested MJD who was a limited participant in practice this week for rest purposes, with no injury listed.
They are also short in the defensive secondary without Aqib Talib and Larry Assante out. Tampa is going to concentrate on MJD and leave whoever they have healthy in man. My guess is that even Gabbert can muster up some success against that defense.
At 39 I think this one is way short and may be eclipsed by a TD or more.
Over 39 is my play.
9-4-1 posted to date.
Pending wagers
Atlanta -1.5 (-125)
Detroit -9.5 (-124) bought down from -10
TB/Jax over 39 (-107)
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Tampa @ Jacksonville over 39
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I won't be on this play, but I lean over as well. GL 
