I disagree with your assessment. You have two teams with rookie quarterbacks squaring off after the 12th game of the season when rookies tend to hit the wall (especially rookie qb's). Those rookies are going to be against two of the best defenses according to the advanced stats. However, each teams' defensive strength is especially successful against each teams' offensive strength. On offense, Houston needs to run the ball with success to take some pressure off of Yates (even if Delhomme plays a bit). However, Cincy's run defense is top 5 in the league in defensive rushing EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Therefore, I don't see Houston finding a ton of success on the ground against Cincy. Similarly, on offense, Cincy will try to get the ball to AJ Green through the air but will face off against Houston's top 3 defense against the pass in EPA, EPA/P, WPA and SR%. Nevertheless, even if Cincy tries to run the ball with Benson, you still have to face Houston's to 10 run defense in the same advanced statistical categories. Bottom line is that I think you see both defenses come after these young qb's, stop the run and this one turns into a defensive struggle. Low total unders are always susceptible to turnover or special teams touchdowns, so I hope those don't happen. Other than those rare types of plays, however, I don't see this one going over the posted total.
Good luck on the rest of your plays