[RJ89]

In my opinion this is the best play on the board this weekend. Many people see that the Saints struggle on the road and that the Titans need this game more and feel that Tennessee is a solid play. However, I feel a stronger angle is at play here. Last year, the Saints defense really struggled on the road in cold weather games in grass.

They had 3 games last year in this situation:


NO 34 CIN 30
NO 30 BAL 24
NO 36 SEA 41


Cincinnati and Baltimore both had average offenses last year, but they could both score at will against New Orleans. And who can forget the Seattle game? Matt Hassellback led the team to a season high 41 points. A lot of people felt that the story from the game was just how beastmode Marshawn Lynch was, but I felt the real story was just how inept NO’s defense was even though it was a playoff game. They missed tackles the nearly the whole game. Now the Saints defense faces Hasselback again where the high is predicted to be ~48, and the Saints aren’t in a must win situation. The Titans Offense has also been more effective recently with Chris Johnson finally playing well again. I wouldn’t be surprised if CJ has a game similar to what Marshawn Lynch had.


The Titans Defense looks great based on surface stats since they have the 5th lowest points allowed per game, but I feel their defense is actually really overrated. The Titans have had a pretty weak schedule so far, having faced the Jaguars, Broncos w/ Orton, Browns, Colts, Bucs, and Bills, and Panthers in 7 of their 12 games. If you look at efficiency ratings, which adjust for schedule and # of possessions, their defense rates as just slightly better than average. Now they face the Saints which is by far the best offense they have had to face this season, and I don’t think they have a good chance of stopping Brees. In the games mentioned earlier the Saints were still able to put up a ton of points. They should still be able to do this against a defense I believe is only slightly better than average.



In the end I see both offenses having a clear advantage, and a score being around NO 33- Ten 30 with the game easily going over.

[rwd201]

might hit but id stay away from the saints this game this could turn into a low scoring battle as the titans want a win and wont give up no big back and forth plays

[RJ89]

You could say that about any team that plays the Saints..

" 'they' want a win and wont give up no big back and forth plays"

Their defense just isn't good enough to stop the Saints who have so many weapons..