1. 12-04-11 11:56 PM #1
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Packers to NOT go 19-0....-350 on 5dimes

    Seems really low @ -350 odds

    If you do an open parlay, picking Packers to win every game from now till the superbowl you can guarantee yourself money on a hedge, no?
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  2. 12-05-11 12:05 AM #2
    MoneyLineDawg
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    I'm positive your parlay would be EASILY over +350 on the other side......no brainer
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  3. 12-05-11 12:06 AM #3
    Avenger
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    I've been doing that when it was -600 and I've already made a profit.

    True, it's only a $20 profit, but hey, a profit is a profit.

    Since I've already made back my original $100, I might do $100 Packers ML for every game till playoffs.
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  4. 12-05-11 12:06 AM #4
    iifold
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    Bad bet...
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  5. 12-05-11 12:08 AM #5
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by iifold View Post
    Bad bet...
    Did you even read my post??
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  6. 12-05-11 12:09 AM #6
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by Avenger View Post
    I've been doing that when it was -600 and I've already made a profit.

    True, it's only a $20 profit, but hey, a profit is a profit.

    Since I've already made back my original $100, I might do $100 Packers ML for every game till playoffs.
    You should do a parlay starting with Packers ML next week with 6 open slots....and just keep adding Packers ML every week until the superbowl if you think they go 19-0

    The prop bet is at +250 which is a joke compared to the odds you would get on the 7 game parlay

    What am I missing here?
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  7. 12-05-11 12:12 AM #7
    Ernie Mccracken
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    What am I missing here?
    SBR posters can only do math if it involves counting on their fingers?
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  8. 12-05-11 12:18 AM #8
    warriorfan707
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    You still have to hit the other side of the parlay. How is that a guarantee of money?
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  9. 12-05-11 12:18 AM #9
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ernie Mccracken View Post
    SBR posters can only do math if it involves counting on their fingers?


    Seriously.....They will be about -500 on average the next 4 weeks

    Then, say they play Cowboys, Saints, and Ravens in the Superbowl......I would put the ML odds @ around -300, -250, and -200 respectively

    A parlay of these 7 games would give you odds of around +500

    And the prop they're giving you is +250
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  10. 12-05-11 12:19 AM #10
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    Seems really low @ -350 odds

    If you do an open parlay, picking Packers to win every game from now till the superbowl you can guarantee yourself money on a hedge, no?
    No.
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  11. 12-05-11 12:19 AM #11
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    You still have to hit the other side of the parlay. How is that a guarantee of money?
    If you get 2 bets at -350 and +500 for the same money that can only have either outcome, you are guaranteed money
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  12. 12-05-11 12:21 AM #12
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    No.
    How not?
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  13. 12-05-11 12:21 AM #13
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    If you get 2 bets at -350 and +500 for the same money that can only have either outcome, you are guaranteed money
    You don't get +500 if they lose next week!
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  14. 12-05-11 12:22 AM #14
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by FourLengthsClear View Post
    You don't get +500 if they lose next week!
    Then you hit the prop at -350 that they DID NOT go 19-0
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  15. 12-05-11 12:22 AM #15
    warriorfan707
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    Your numbers are way off. Theres no guarantee of anything here.
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  16. 12-05-11 12:26 AM #16
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Small numbers here, but Make a $100 bet on Packers to NOT GO 19-0.......If they lose a game this season, you win $29.00

    Also, bet a $22 parlay on the Packers ML next week, with 6 open slots.....if the packers win, keep adding Packers ML and the odds should come out around to +500 if they end up going 19-0.......

    Either way you make 10 dollars or 7 dollars
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  17. 12-05-11 12:26 AM #17
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    Your numbers are way off. Theres no guarantee of anything here.
    Possibly
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  18. 12-05-11 12:27 AM #18
    warriorfan707
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    I like your way of thinking though, there are good times for hedging but I honestly don't think this is one of them.
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  19. 12-05-11 12:29 AM #19
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by warriorfan707 View Post
    I like your way of thinking though, there are good times for hedging but I honestly don't think this is one of them.
    Probably not worth it just because you're right that we have no idea what the packers ML's will be

    But I think the worst thing you could do is break even......

    -350 just seemed a little low to me, but I guess it's not too bad when I think about it more
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  20. 12-05-11 12:31 AM #20
    gamble
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    is there another side to it or just them to win the bet?
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  21. 12-05-11 12:32 AM #21
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by gamble View Post
    is there another side to it or just them to win the bet?
    I just threw teams out there.....How is Saints/ Packers UNLIKELY though?

    That seems to me to be the LIKELY matchup for the NFCC at this point
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  22. 12-05-11 12:34 AM #22
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Quote Originally Posted by gamble View Post
    is there another side to it or just them to win the bet?
    19-0 is +250, which as I explained earlier is terrible odds, considering 5dimes lets you do open parlays

    If you like Packers to go 19-0 on 5Dimes, just make a 7 game open parlay and take Packers ML each slot as they win......Your odds will work out to be around +500, possibly lower, but definitely not as low as +250
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  23. 12-05-11 12:39 AM #23
    lakerboy
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    I just threw teams out there.....How is Saints/ Packers UNLIKELY though?

    That seems to me to be the LIKELY matchup for the NFCC at this point


    YEah and how often do those likely matchups happen? Was Bears/Packers the likely matchup last year?
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  24. 12-05-11 12:40 AM #24
    FourLengthsClear
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    Then you hit the prop at -350 that they DID NOT go 19-0
    So you are placing a risk amount from the 7-teamer on the assumption that you are going to net compunded ML odds of +500?

    If your assumption is wrong (do you really think they would be favoured by only 7 points at home to Dallas?) then you are not guarenteed anything.

    Fwiw. +350 (your breakeven point) is equivalent to average odds of -416 across all seven matches which looks good but, if an unfavoured team gets through to the Conference championship or the Superbowl it is entirely possible that you don't get that.
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  25. 12-05-11 12:41 AM #25
    gamble
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    I just threw teams out there.....How is Saints/ Packers UNLIKELY though? That seems to me to be the LIKELY matchup for the NFCC at this point
    misread it so i edited, my bad (thought you were saying that those teams were possible SB opponents)
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  26. 12-05-11 12:48 AM #26
    MoneyLineDawg
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    OK guys it was just an idea.....I still maintain that you wouldn't lose money on this (Meaning you would get better than +350 on the other end)

    Obviously when working it out, it's really not worth it unless you were playing with huge money (Which is a moot point with the limits on prop bets)

    Just an idea, carry on
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