[Stocks]

Its like extra reduced juice.

[ThaTopMoron]

You should have already been doing this for about 8 of the 11 Colts games this season...

[Grits n' Gravy]

Why would you add such high vig to a parlay?

[Stocks]

Why would you add such high vig to a parlay?

Parlay it with your straight bets so instead of having Team A -7 -110 you would lower the juice to -105 or whatever it would work out to.

[Grits n' Gravy]

A -2300 or so bet just seems like a waste to throw in a parlay. Maybe I'm missing something but you'd have to have a 5 or 6 teamer minimum for it to even make it a worthwhile throw in to offset the huge vig. Sounds like a brahmabull bet. Pats ml, org ml, gb ml.

[KingJD31]

if you bet the ml on the pats game and u win it you owe money practically

[Stocks]

A -2300 or so bet just seems like a waste to throw in a parlay. Maybe I'm missing something but you'd have to have a 5 or 6 teamer minimum for it to even make it a worthwhile throw in to offset the huge vig. Sounds like a brahmabull bet. Pats ml, org ml, gb ml.

You don't understand the concept of what I'm saying. The Pats are I hate to say it but a lock to win the game outright so if you parley them with your regular bets its like getting lower juice.

[bb_skoots]

There are no locks in the NFL. IMO you do this type of bet until it doesn't work one time and you'll never look at them again.

[tad0matic]

There are no locks in the NFL. IMO you do this type of bet until it doesn't work one time and you'll never look at them again.

exactly! nothing like that sick feeling of just needing your ultra safe ML leg to come in just to see your parlay go down in flames on the safest bet on the board.

[ncsubowen]

I put money on the Colts ML for shits and giggles. I would love to see them stun the Pats.

[FourLengthsClear]

You don't understand the concept of what I'm saying. The Pats are I hate to say it but a lock to win the game outright so if you parley them with your regular bets its like getting lower juice.

If that is the case then just put your entire bankroll on the Pats ML. 4% return with no risk in 4 hours sounds good, right?

Alternatively maybe the books have it about right and there is about a 4% chance that the Pats lose.

[jimmyeatworld]

4% with Painter still maybe... Orlovsky is 1%, max. Guy might sack himself a few times or run out of the back of the end zone a dozen times.

[slatter]

Pats are as close to a "lock" as you get in the NFL, and I hate that word. But yeah, it's pretty damn safe. And someone please bump this and make me look like an idiot if the stars align and the Colts somehow get their first win of the season on the arm of Dan f***ing Orlovsky, on the road in New England when the Pats need a win.

[sapidoc]

Saints -900 ML vs. Rams
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-bettin...l-vs-rams.html

Am I crazy to lay $4,500 on the Saints ML to make an easy $500. There is literally no way they can lose to the Rams.

...

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/201110...ghts&tab=recap

[Golokhov]

Absolutely.

[Stocks]

That was Saints on the road. Saints at home would have been a different story.

Do some research and see how often a 20 point favourite wins outright.

[sapidoc]

That was Saints on the road. Saints at home would have been a different story. Do some research and see how often a 20 point favourite wins outright.

From Pinny:
+1300 (7.14%)
-2400 (96%)

In situations modeled by this upcoming game, they win quite often. More than 92.86% of the time in fact, but less than 96% of the time.

[sapidoc]

I was able to fine this data, although I can't comment if it is fully inclusive of all 20+ point favorites in NFL:

Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
SUN 7 1991 BUF IND H 14-0 14-6 7-0 7-0 42-6 -20' +41 36 +15' +7 11.2 -4.2 W W O 0
SUN 3 1992 BUF IND H 7-0 3-0 14-0 14-0 38-0 -20 +41' 38 +18 -3' 7.2 -10.8 W W U 0
SUN 9 1992 BUF NE H 0-0 0-7 9-0 7-0 16-7 -20 +40 9 -11 -17 -14.0 -3.0 W L U 0
SAT 16 1992 SF TB H 7-7 0-0 7-0 7-7 21-14 -20 +40' 7 -13 -5' -9.2 3.8 W L U 0
SUN 14 1993 SF CIN H 7-2 0-6 7-0 7-0 21-8 -23' +43' 13 -10' -14' -12.5 -2.0 W L U 0
SUN 12 2007 NE PHI H 14-7 10-14 0-7 7-0 31-28 -23' +51 3 -20' +8 -6.2 14.2 W L O 0
MON 13 2007 NE BAL A 3-7 7-3 7-7 10-7 27-24 -20 +49' 3 -17 +1' -7.8 9.2 W L O 0
SUN 15 2007 NE NYJ H 7-0 10-7 0-0 3-3 20-10 -21' +44' 10 -11' -14' -13.0 -1.5 W L U 0
SUN 16 2007 NE MIA H 7-0 21-0 0-7 0-0 28-7 -22 +43' 21 -1 -8' -4.8 -3.8 W L U 0
SUN 13 2011 NE IND H -20 +48

It looks like a 20+ point NFL favorite has never lost in the history of the NFL (if I assume this to be a full list).

Now we only have a sample size of 9 games here, and I don't have time to do a proper significance test, but it should be easily seen that with an hypothesis of a ML win between 92% and 96% we probably don't have enough data available to determine the accuracy of Pinny's posted line.

That being said, my money would be on the accuracy of Pinny's line.

Good luck if you decide to use the strategy.

[sapidoc]

Interestingly enough, I wasn't able to find a ML loser all the way down to a -17.5 line favorite in NFL. Again, I'm just using some database I found online so I can't comment on its completeness, but it looks legitimate:

Day Week Season Team Opp Site Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
SUN 7 1991 BUF IND H 14-0 14-6 7-0 7-0 42-6 -20' +41 36 +15' +7 11.2 -4.2 W W O 0
SUN 3 1992 BUF IND H 7-0 3-0 14-0 14-0 38-0 -20 +41' 38 +18 -3' 7.2 -10.8 W W U 0
SUN 9 1992 BUF NE H 0-0 0-7 9-0 7-0 16-7 -20 +40 9 -11 -17 -14.0 -3.0 W L U 0
SAT 16 1992 SF TB H 7-7 0-0 7-0 7-7 21-14 -20 +40' 7 -13 -5' -9.2 3.8 W L U 0
SUN 14 1993 SF CIN H 7-2 0-6 7-0 7-0 21-8 -23' +43' 13 -10' -14' -12.5 -2.0 W L U 0
SUN 14 1995 DAL WAS H 0-0 10-7 0-7 7-10 17-24 -17' +45' -7 -24' -4' -14.5 10.0 L L U 0
SUN 13 1998 GB PHI H 0-0 10-6 7-7 7-3 24-16 -19 +37' 8 -11 +2' -4.2 6.8 W L O 0
SUN 7 1999 STL CLE H 14-3 7-0 3-0 10-0 34-3 -19 +43' 31 +12 -6' 2.8 -9.2 W W U 0
SUN 7 2000 STL ATL H 7-14 22-7 8-0 8-8 45-29 -17' +58 16 -1' +16 7.2 8.8 W L O 0
SUN 5 2001 RAI DAL H 7-0 14-7 7-7 0-7 28-21 -18 +41 7 -11 +8 -1.5 9.5 W L O 0
SUN 10 2001 STL CAR H 21-0 10-7 14-7 3-0 48-14 -19' +47' 34 +14' +14' 14.5 0.0 W W O 0
SUN 4 2002 PHI TEX H 3-7 17-0 8-10 7-0 35-17 -19' +35' 18 -1' +16' 7.5 9.0 W L O 0
SUN 5 2006 IND TEN H 0-7 0-3 7-3 7-0 14-13 -17' +47' 1 -16' -20' -18.5 -2.0 W L U 0
SUN 12 2007 NE PHI H 14-7 10-14 0-7 7-0 31-28 -23' +51 3 -20' +8 -6.2 14.2 W L O 0
MON 13 2007 NE BAL A 3-7 7-3 7-7 10-7 27-24 -20 +49' 3 -17 +1' -7.8 9.2 W L O 0
SUN 15 2007 NE NYJ H 7-0 10-7 0-0 3-3 20-10 -21' +44' 10 -11' -14' -13.0 -1.5 W L U 0
SUN 16 2007 NE MIA H 7-0 21-0 0-7 0-0 28-7 -22 +43' 21 -1 -8' -4.8 -3.8 W L U 0
SUN 13 2011 NE IND H -20 +48

[Reload]

Nice list, sapidoc. I remember so many of those games!

[SASH]

-2500, no thanks. Not worth getting an extra 8 dollars lol

[chopperocker]

-110 reduced to -103