[SteveRyan]

Quick recap...

If any of you had read my posts last week, you may remember that I picked 10 out of 12 spreads correctly last week (Missed only Minnesota +9 and Seattle -3.5). I also had 4 money line picks that were all correct. 87.5%

On the outside chance that I'm on a hot streak, I'm posting my picks for this week with a few write ups. I dont have time to write up every pick, although I may add a couple later this week before Sunday.

BOL to everyone this week.

WEEK 13

Philadelphia vs. Seattle
It’s hard to gauge just how well Philadelphia will play on Sunday. With Michael Vick out, the stats don’t really reflect their current potential, but McCoy and Maclin are likely to sit this one out. When it boils down to it, Vince Young is really no better than Tarvaris Jackson; their percentages are basically even. Desean Jackson is a big disappointment this season with only 664 yds and 2 TD’s. These teams are essentially now equal; the team with the stronger defense will come out ahead. Unfortunately for Philly, that’s the Seahawks with a home field advantage as well.
SEAHAWKS / +3

Buffalo vs. Tennessee
Make no mistake about it; the Bills have lost whatever edge they had (Fred Jackson) during the beginning of the season. After being pounded on the road over the last three weeks, it’s hard to think that they can come back against the Titans who are dead set on the wild card. The Titans have the edge in passing, while Buffalo’s defense appears to get worse week after week. If Tennessee can stop the run, they will have the edge in this game.
TENNESSEE / ML

Kansas City vs. Chicago
Even with Hanie, the Chiefs are simply no match for the Bears. Chiefs have averaged 6 points over the last 4 games! Having one of the worst passing offenses in the league, their only shot is rushing, but the Bears defense is too strong. Hanie will make short plays while Barber and Forte pound their way down the field and across the goal line in the windy city. Easy cover for Chicago.
CHICAGO / - 7

Oakland vs. Miami
I think people are a little mesmerized by Miami lately, thinking that they have somehow solved their issues and turned things around. Look at who they have played over the last few weeks….Buffalo, Washington, and Kansas City. After a so-so performance against Dallas last week, I think it’s pretty apparent that they will end the season the same way it started. Oakland is a strong road team (80%) and they out score Miami at home by at least 1 TD. Pay attention to Oakland’s passing game; it will be big.
OAKLAND / +2.5

Cincinnati / +7
Baltimore / -6.5
Jets / +3
Houston / ML
Carolina / +3
New Orleans / -9
Denver / ML (If Peterson plays I may reconsider)
San Francisco / -13 (Still thinking this one through)
Dallas / -4.5
Green Bay / -7
New England / -20 (Still thinking this one through)
San Diego / -3

[SteveRyan]

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh
These teams faced each other already one time this month in Cincinnati (2 weeks ago). Pittsburgh won the game, but based upon the Steelers performance last week against the Chiefs, I dont suspect that this game will be an easy win for them. If the Bengals want any shot at the wild card, they will need to win this game because Baltimore will beat Cleveland....but I dont think that Cincinnati can get the job done in Pittsburgh this week. Steelers have a better offense and home field advantage. I however cannot count on Pittsburgh to cover with wild card hungry Bengals giving 110%.
Cincinnati / +7

[blaze4g]

our picks are really basically the same lol...i was afraid of that panthers/tampa game so i left it off. Like your write up too, wasnt considering Bears before because i dont like the idea of cutler being out but i might just bet on em now.

[SteveRyan]

WEEK 13

Seahawks / +3 WIN
Tennessee / ML WIN
Chigago / - 7 LOSE
Oakland / +2.5 LOSE
Cincinnati / +7 LOSE
Baltimore / -6.5 WIN
Washington / +3 LOSE
Houston / ML WIN
Carolina / +3 WIN
New Orleans / -9 WIN
Denver / ML WIN
San Francisco / -13 WIN
Dallas / -4.5 LOSE
Green Bay / -7 LOSE
Indianapolis / +20 WIN

San Diego / -3 PENDING

60%

All in all, I am happy with my picks this week as I picked 4 upsets (Tennessee, Houston, Carolina and Denver). I'm very surprised and disappointed by Chicago and Dallas as I thought these picks were among the easiest.

I hope San Diego comes through for me tomorrow night. Jacksonville averages 13 ppg this season and San Diego 22. Although San Diego has been a poor road team, I anticipate they will end their 6 loss streak tomorrow vs the Jags. It looks like Malcolm Floyd and Antonio Gates are good to go.

[SteveRyan]

WEEK 13

Seahawks / +3 WIN
Tennessee / ML WIN
Chigago / - 7 LOSE
Oakland / +2.5 LOSE
Cincinnati / +7 LOSE
Baltimore / -6.5 WIN
Washington / +3 LOSE
Houston / ML WIN
Carolina / +3 WIN
New Orleans / -9 WIN
Denver / ML WIN
San Francisco / -13 WIN
Dallas / -4.5 LOSE
Green Bay / -7 LOSE
Indianapolis / +20 WIN

San Diego / -3 PENDING

60%

Seahawks / +3 WIN
Tennessee / ML WIN
Chigago / - 7 LOSE
Oakland / +2.5 LOSE
Cincinnati / +7 LOSE
Baltimore / -6.5 WIN
Washington / +3 LOSE
Houston / ML WIN
Carolina / +3 WIN
New Orleans / -9 WIN
Denver / ML WIN
San Francisco / -13 WIN
Dallas / -4.5 LOSE
Green Bay / -7 LOSE
Indianapolis / +20 WIN

San Diego / -3 WIN

62.5%

I'll put up my pick for the Thursday game by tomorrow with a small write up. The rest of my picks will probably be up on Friday or Saturday at the latest.

[SteveRyan]

Cleveland vs Pittsburgh

The Steelers injury report is looking very good this week. Basically, everyone is probable, so it's safe to say that the team is healthy and good to go.

Cleveland is relatively healthy as well but their starting Safety is out. Peyton Hillis is probable.

Clevelands run-d is one of the worst in the league. They will not be able to stop Mendenhall who had 16 carries and 2 TD's vs Cincinnati's 6th ranked run-d last week.

Last weeks game should be a pretty strong indication as to what Pittsburgh is capable of....especially having faced a team who is chasing a wild-card with everything they got. Cleveland just does not stack up to Cincinnati, so the outcome here is pretty obvious to me.

Although this is a division Rivalry, and we all know how hard the Browns will fight so their fans can see the Steelers go down, they just dont have any edge in this match-up. Cleveland wont really show up much during the 1st half, while Pittsburgh exploits all the weaknesses in the Browns d throughout the entire game.

Pittsburgh will come pretty damn close to hittin the over all by themselves. Should be no problem to cover -14. I'm expecting a similar outcome to last weeks game vs Cincinnati.

Pittsburgh -14

[Bohemian Aggie]

Steve I like the write up and pick! Keep up the good work

[SteveRyan]

Steve I like the write up and pick! Keep up the good work

Thanks man! I will put up the rest of my picks in the next couple of days. If I have time for write-ups I will add a few.

[Coming Back!]

Hey Steve, I think you do a good job and 60% is impressive. But I don't understand your logic on this one. Why won't the Browns show up in the first half on a National TV game versus the Steelers? If it was a Sunday at 1 against the Seahawks, I would get that. And just because the Steelers beat up on the Bengals and the Bengals are better than the Browns doesn't = Steelers pounding Browns. I'm leaning toward the Steelers, but not sure because they couldn't cover versus the Colts and Chiefs, although they were road games. They could of easily lost to Palko! Woodley is out too, even though the Steelers have a lot on D.

[SteveRyan]

Hey Steve, I think you do a good job and 60% is impressive. But I don't understand your logic on this one. Why won't the Browns show up in the first half on a National TV game versus the Steelers? If it was a Sunday at 1 against the Seahawks, I would get that. And just because the Steelers beat up on the Bengals and the Bengals are better than the Browns doesn't = Steelers pounding Browns. I'm leaning toward the Steelers, but not sure because they couldn't cover versus the Colts and Chiefs, although they were road games. They could of easily lost to Palko! Woodley is out too, even though the Steelers have a lot on D.

Cleveland averages 17 points on the road this season. Over the last 4 games, they have averaged 12. I don't see any reason to suspect anything more than an average performance from the Browns offense. Given that the flight is a short one, it's still a short week road game to Heinz field for a team on a downward trend. The prime-time theory may hold some water, but I don't see any other factors beyond that which gives Cleveland any type of edge.

[Coming Back!]

Cleveland averages 17 points on the road this season. Over the last 4 games, they have averaged 12. I don't see any reason to suspect anything more than an average performance from the Browns offense. Given that the flight is a short one, it's still a short week road game to Heinz field for a team on a downward trend. The prime-time theory may hold some water, but I don't see any other factors beyond that which gives Cleveland any type of edge.

Good points. Also, I just read that Pitt is sticking with "no huddle," which I like. Pittsburgh's offense was stagnant versus the Chiefs, when they were running a more traditional offense. Going with Pitt and hopefully we could avoid a backdoor cover and/or bad luck.

[SteveRyan]

Pittsburgh -14 LOSS

Well...that was an unusual game. Roethlisberger went down early in the 2nd quarter and put the 1st half to a halt. Big Ben cam back after the half, but was hobbling around like an old man. Passing and rushing just got shut down. Wind taken out of the sails.

I think it was right about Cleveland though. They did not show up in the first half. Cant believe they blew the 2nd half so bad. They had numerous opportunities to make something happen.

How did you like the officiating? I was gettin tired of watchin that old man call every single ticky-tack thing against Pittsburgh. Opened the door WIDE open for Cleveland, but they just cant do a damn thing. Cleveland +14 was the call, but it never would have happened if Ben didnt get injured.

[Coming Back!]

Pittsburgh -14 LOSS

Well...that was an unusual game. Roethlisberger went down early in the 2nd quarter and put the 1st half to a halt. Big Ben cam back after the half, but was hobbling around like an old man. Passing and rushing just got shut down. Wind taken out of the sails.

I think it was right about Cleveland though. They did not show up in the first half. Cant believe they blew the 2nd half so bad. They had numerous opportunities to make something happen.

How did you like the officiating? I was gettin tired of watchin that old man call every single ticky-tack thing against Pittsburgh. Opened the door WIDE open for Cleveland, but they just cant do a damn thing. Cleveland +14 was the call, but it never would have happened if Ben didnt get injured.

It took 2 red zone fumbles by Pitt, Ben to get hurt, a drop by Brown on 3rd down to start the second half, a goaline stand. I think Pitt was the right call, but we got bit by bad luck. I mean Cleveland had some drops and didn't score on the goaline as well, but they are terrible. Anyway, that's why the players will never beat the books in the long run. Can't predict if someone is going to fumble or if there will be 2 fumbles or the starting qb gets hurt...

[SteveRyan]

It took 2 red zone fumbles by Pitt, Ben to get hurt, a drop by Brown on 3rd down to start the second half, a goaline stand. I think Pitt was the right call, but we got bit by bad luck. I mean Cleveland had some drops and didn't score on the goaline as well, but they are terrible. Anyway, that's why the players will never beat the books in the long run. Can't predict if someone is going to fumble or if there will be 2 fumbles or the starting qb gets hurt...

Yep! It's the NFL and anything can happen. Hard to come out ahead in the long run, but it's possible.

[SteveRyan]

Picks are comin out late Saturday. Sorry I didn't have time for write ups.

WEEK 14

Indianapolis / +16
Houston / +3
Green Bay / -11.5
Jets / -10
Minnesota / +10
New Orleans / -3.5
Miami / -3
New England / -8
Carolina / +3
Tampa / -2.5
San Fran / -3.5
Denver / -3.5
San Diego / -7
Dallas / +4.5
Seattle / -10

Best of luck to everyone this week.

[SteveRyan]

Week 14

Pittsburgh / -14 LOSS
Indianapolis / +16 WON
Houston / +3 WON
Green Bay / -11.5 WON
Jets / -10 WON
Minnesota / +10 WON
New Orleans / -3.5 WON
Miami / -3 LOSS
New England / -8 LOSS
Carolina / +3 LOSS
Tampa / -2.5 LOSS
San Fran / -3.5 LOSS
Denver / -3.5 LOSS
San Diego / -7 WON
Dallas / +4.5 WON
Seattle / -10 PENDING

Looks like 50/50 for me this week. If Seattle comes through it will be 56%

Definitely underestimated Philadelphia this week. Will the "Dream team" live up to the name for the rest of the season or was it just a fluke?

Aside from week 1, the Redskins had their highest scoring game of the season. Says a lot about NE defense. Still, I thought the Pats were good for more.

Misjudged Carolina with their home-field advantage.

Toss-up game with Tampa and Jacksonville. Should have just bet the home team.

San Fran could take the rest of the regular season off and make the playoffs. Still, did they have to fall asleep in AZ today? Kinda embarrassing for a top team.

We all get Tebowed one way or another....

[SteveRyan]

Week 14

Pittsburgh / -14 LOSS
Indianapolis / +16 WON
Houston / +3 WON
Green Bay / -11.5 WON
Jets / -10 WON
Minnesota / +10 WON
New Orleans / -3.5 WON
Miami / -3 LOSS
New England / -8 LOSS
Carolina / +3 LOSS
Tampa / -2.5 LOSS
San Fran / -3.5 LOSS
Denver / -3.5 LOSS
San Diego / -7 WON
Dallas / +4.5 WON
Seattle / -10 PENDING

Seattle / -10 WON

56%

[PAULYPOKER]

Dallas / +4.5 WON
Dallas -4.5
was a loss

[SteveRyan]

Dallas / +4.5 WON
Dallas -4.5
was a loss

Thanks for pointing that out. I made a mistake on my spreadsheet. I take the spreads from online and manually type them into my spreadsheet. Should have known better and noticed that NY wasn't favored here.

For what its worth (Coming after the fact), I would not have counted on Dallas to cover 4.5 points. I would have taken NY +4.5 or ML. Giants played a hell of a game vs Green Bay last week. Nor would I have expected to see Dallas score so well.

[SteveRyan]

Jacksonville vs Atlanta

Jags dont stand much of a chance on Atlanta home turf Thursday. They have been very poor on the road all season (only a couple wins) and scoring very low. Although Atlanta has a couple injuries, the majority of their key players are good to go. Atlantas run-d is one of the best around this season. Should be business as usual for the Falcons against one of the worst ranked offenses in the league.

Atlanta -12

[SteveRyan]

Jacksonville vs Atlanta


Atlanta -12

Business as usual....

-12, -14, -whatever....

[SteveRyan]

Atlanta -12 / won

Here's the rest of my picks. Didn't have any time for write-ups; been too busy lately and tonight is the company Christmas party.

Was kinda a tough week!! Lines opened with 9 home dogs!! Now 8 because Miami opened at -1.5 but they are now road +1.5.

WEEK 15

Dallas -7
Giants -6.5
Green Bay -13.5
Minnesota +7.5
Chicago -3.5
Miami ML
Houston -6
Tennessee -6.5
Cincinnati -7
Detroit ML
Denver +7.5
Jets +3
Cleveland +6.5
Baltimore -2.5
San Francisco -3

[SteveRyan]

Atlanta -11 WON
Dallas -7 WON
Giants -6.5 LOSS
Green Bay -13.5 LOSS
Minnesota +7.5 LOSS
Chicago -3.5 LOSS
Miami ML WON
Houston -6 LOSS
Tennessee -6.5 LOSS
Cincinnati -7 PUSH
Detroit ML WON
Denver +7.5 LOSS
Jets +3 LOSS
Cleveland +6.5 WON
Baltimore -2.5 PENDING
San Francisco -3 PENDING

Bad picks this week. No excuse. Should have at least known that Jets, Minnesota and Denver were no good. What was I thinking??? I think if I had taken just a little more time with these picks that I would have caught the obvious errors.

With the way this weeks been going I wont be surprised if San Diego and Pittsburgh win.

[SteveRyan]

Week 16

Houston / -7 / LOSS (Im not the only one )
Oakland / ML
Denver / -3
Tennessee / -7.5
Arizona / +4.5
New England / -9
Baltimore / -12
Giants / ML
Minnesota / +7
Carolina / -7
Pittsburgh / -13
San Diego / ML
Seattle / ML
Philadelphia / ML
Green Bay / -11.5
New Orleans / -7

Off to the airport at 5am to fly home for Christmas



Happy Holidays and best of luck to all this weekend.

[Youkeepthislove]

Are you playing all of those?! What are your strongest plays?

[SteveRyan]

Houston / -7 / LOSS (Im not the only one )
Oakland / ML / WON
Denver / -3 / LOSS
Tennessee / -7.5 / LOSS
Arizona / +4.5 / LOSS
New England / -9 / LOSS
Baltimore / -12 / LOSS
Giants / ML / WON
Minnesota / +7 / WON
Carolina / -7 / WON
Pittsburgh / -13 / WON
San Diego / ML / LOSS
Seattle / ML / LOSS
Philadelphia / ML / WON
Green Bay / -11.5 / PENDING
New Orleans / -7 / PENDING

Best I can get is 50%. The money-line picks help.

Are you playing all of those?! What are your strongest plays?

No, I don't bet them all. It's actually a dry-run that would have turned a small profit. Some weeks this season I did place some bets; this week I did not.

My strong leans were Houston, Oakland, Giants, Carolina, Philadelphia and New Orleans.

I was originally on Buffalo ML, Cincinnati -4.5 and Seattle +3 but switched these picks Friday night after taking another look. Should have stuck with my original picks.

[SteveRyan]

Houston / -7 / LOSS (Im not the only one )
Oakland / ML / WON
Denver / -3 / LOSS
Tennessee / -7.5 / LOSS
Arizona / +4.5 / LOSS
New England / -9 / LOSS
Baltimore / -12 / LOSS
Giants / ML / WON
Minnesota / +7 / WON
Carolina / -7 / WON
Pittsburgh / -13 / WON
San Diego / ML / LOSS
Seattle / ML / LOSS
Philadelphia / ML / WON
Green Bay / -11.5 / WON
New Orleans / -7 / WON

50%