1. #1
    billysink
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    NY Giants +7.5, Detroit +9

    Early plays each for one unit. I realize those are not going to be popular with the forum but I am locked in early as I feel neither one of those lines will hold this week.

    I am still working on a few other games in which I feel the lines will not hold so I will post writeups a bit later.

    Feel free to discuss. All opinions welcomed.

    Good Luck with your handicapping this week lads.

  2. #2
    dontbuythehook
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    Not only will I be here when they lose, but I will be here when they win. GL you pos scumbag, hopefully you scoop both for a whopping $20!

  3. #3
    billysink
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    We all watched the Lions self destruct in the early Turkey Day game. Injuries to both the starting free safety and LC Chris Houston. Both of these guys are shutdown type pass defenders. When the were in for the half they limited Rodgers to 75 yards or so. After they left it was game over, an injury to LC backup Brandon MacDonald (who was getting torched) and the well publicized idiocy of Neanderthal Suh quickly put a nail in any chances for a comeback.

    I don't expect Delmas or Houston to be back for the New Orleans game. Bears castoff Chris Harris and special teams ace John Wendling will spit reps in practice this week at safety, I am hoping Wendling wins the start. He is a great athlete and would get more playing time if not for the great play of Delmas. Last year's team leader in interceptions Alphonso Smith will play for Houston. He is not a bad cover guy but poor against the run.

    Admittedly Brees could have a field day if he has time to throw. Nick Fairley is going to step in for The Idiot. At this point I don't know if that is not at least a lateral move. Fairley already plays the run as well or better than Suh and I don't see him or anyone else on that team going to be the liability that Suh is at this point. I will be looking for Fairley to play more gap control and not get caught deep in the backfield like The Idiot has been of late. Perhaps finally someone in the middle of that line will realize that the rush ends can do the pass rushing and the interior can fill gaps and create a push forcing the pocket to the outside. Instead of running around foaming at the mouth.

    I don't think Kevin Smith will play this weekend. He is saying all the right things at this point but a high ankle sprain is what it is and they don't go away quickly. Morris is more than capable. The Lions have increased their YPR almost a full yard since Best has gone down. I am not impressed with the Saints run defense.

    Everyone also saw the Saints hand the Giants their ass on Monday. I also saw a team that gave up almost 500 yards in total offense. They just flat out out never stopped the passing offense of the Giants. Many will take the opinion that the Giants rolled up a lot of completions after the game was pretty much decided and that is more than true. Manning completed 21 straight passes at one point but the game was never in doubt. Truth is if you can run on New Orleans to set up the pass you have a shot. That display of the Giants on Sunday was none of that, they never established the run and had to abandon it from the game plan.

    Do I think the Lions can beat the Saints. Not really though they stand more of a chance than the line indicates. I so think that 9 is too many points for them to give to what is still a very talented team that now has their backs against the wall.

    If the Lions beat themselves this week I will be suprised. If they lose by a touchdown I will not be.

    That is what I made the line. -7. I grabbed the 9 and do not think it will last.

    8-3-1 posted YTD.

    Good Luck all!!

  4. #4
    D3 Mighty Ducks
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontbuythehook View Post
    Not only will I be here when they lose, but I will be here when they win. GL you pos scumbag, hopefully you scoop both for a whopping $20!
    Just because your a 20 dollar bettor doesn't mean we all are.

  5. #5
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontbuythehook View Post
    Not only will I be here when they lose, but I will be here when they win. GL you pos scumbag, hopefully you scoop both for a whopping $20!
    1 unit on each. You fill in any number that makes you feel like a big man. Means little to me and nothing to my wallet.

    That is all losers like you have.

    Would you mind giving an opinion on the games or take a hike. I intended for this to be a handicapping thread. I know you usually reserve your posts to lock threads a half an hour after the game starts but what the hell.

    Give it a shot. Talk about some football.

    You do watch football don't you?????

  6. #6
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by D3 Mighty Ducks View Post
    Just because your a 20 dollar bettor doesn't mean we all are.
    If they can't peg you a loser they gotta go with bet size. If I posted a ticket, which would never happen it would quickly be deemed as fake. Losers will always make up some kinda bullshit.

    I don't owe anyone any explanation for anything I do in the wagering world. Nor will I ever attempt to offer one. Credibility from this loser or any other is not real high on my list of priorities here.

    Interacting with the handicapping community and sharing opinions whether like minded or not; and information is the goal.


    Lets save the rest of this thread for handicapping. If the idiot wants to make a scene in this thread, he will surely make himself look like the idiot he is. He will be ignored from here on out unless he chooses to talk football.

  7. #7
    billysink
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    I am seeing that the line on the Giant side has already moved to 7 @ Pinny. From the time stamp on the line move I made it by 6 minutes.

    That takes a ton of value out of that wager.

    Hopefully some got it a 7.5 if they favored the side.

    I won't get into it much as I am sure many will not find that line to their liking but I think that this is the week the Giants may finally be able to establish the run. It would appear that the linebacking corps of Green Bay is going to be real short this week.

    I basically think these teams are a mirror image of each other defensively with the better pass rush on the Giant side. Both units grade out very poorly in yards per play but are very opportunistic. The Pack lead in Picks and the Giants are much better at forcing fumbles. I put a bit more stock in the latter as they picks per pass attempt is not much different. Quite simply teams are forced to throw the ball at Green Bay much more than the Giants.

    The Giants are a still dinged up on the O-Line but I did not see ton of weakness in pass protection against New Orleans on Monday.

    Again not overly thrilled at recommending this one at an even seven but have an eye in case that changes.

  8. #8
    dlunc3
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    Before commenting and stating my opinions on the games... Are you a lions fan?

  9. #9
    dontbuythehook
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    Well I mean with all of that analysis I just figured you might bet $15 instead of $10 is all I was pointing out

    NYG bet I actually pinned for huge value on the ML if bradshaw was in, but without being able to establish the run game g-men can't control the clock as well, and don't play shootout style as well as other teams do. They aren't really at their best when they can't do this, and most of their big wins tend to have been lower scoring so not sure about the NYG pick but maybe it will steam to 8.5 in a parallel universe where you can tease them to +14.5 with something else. I don't see a reason to fade GB anymore, I've tried it twice this year with the chargers and DET, which you know better than anyone with an essay write up that it did not pan out well at all (flags and what not, but rodgers gunna rodgers).

    DET is plagued with injuries, and they don't have a good run game without best. Stafford looked very sloppy out there and I think he still might have an injury to his hand so I don't like betting on him. +9 is a lot in a game that you would imagine to be a shootout war, but I haven't seen detroit do much of this since earlier in the year around weeks 1 - 6. Saints secondary is bad so you'd imagine DET's WRs will have a field day but I expect stafford to throw at least one pick this game early on by forcing a small hole on 3rd down and it will all go down hill from there. I understand you see no value in -9 but Saints looked really good last night and this team does close well before entering playoffs as evidenced from the last two years. Everyone is healthy in NOR, and it's the opposite for DET: a.) banged up qb, b.) running back is out, c.) tons of o-line/d-line injuries, d.) secondary is bad, e.) d-line isn't good so sproles will have a field day

    You could just wait for g-men to hit 8.5 and tease both of these to +14.5/+14, respectively. GL.
    Last edited by dontbuythehook; 11-29-11 at 08:37 PM.

  10. #10
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlunc3 View Post
    Before commenting and stating my opinions on the games... Are you a lions fan?
    No Dunc, not by any stretch. I quit being a fan of any sports team so many years ago. Kind of a drag really in a way but this stuff is all business. I remember when I first started this crazy biz over 20 years ago, how badly wagering and being a fan mixed.

    This stuff is such a grind sometimes, I wish I was one and could just sit back and watch without having the wheels turning all the time.

    I will handicap the Lions a bit more than any other team as I am privy to some more in depth coverage on both them and Seattle. I have some connections in the newspaper biz and get some stuff before it hits or that never makes it to the main stream. Sometimes it works for me sometimes not but it is good to have once in a while.

    Feel free to comment on the games though....... glad to have your opinion whether it agrees with mine or not.
    Last edited by billysink; 11-29-11 at 08:56 PM.

  11. #11
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by dontbuythehook View Post
    Well I mean with all of that analysis I just figured you might bet $15 instead of $10 is all I was pointing out

    NYG bet I actually pinned for huge value on the ML if bradshaw was in, but without being able to establish the run game g-men can't control the clock as well, and don't play shootout style as well as other teams do. They aren't really at their best when they can't do this, and most of their big wins tend to have been lower scoring so not sure about the NYG pick but maybe it will steam to 8.5 in a parallel universe where you can tease them to +14.5 with something else. I don't see a reason to fade GB anymore, I've tried it twice this year with the chargers and DET, which you know better than anyone with an essay write up that it did not pan out well at all (flags and what not, but rodgers gunna rodgers).

    DET is plagued with injuries, and they don't have a good run game without best. Stafford looked very sloppy out there and I think he still might have an injury to his hand so I don't like betting on him. +9 is a lot in a game that you would imagine to be a shootout war, but I haven't seen detroit do much of this since earlier in the year around weeks 1 - 6. Saints secondary is bad so you'd imagine DET's WRs will have a field day but I expect stafford to throw at least one pick this game early on by forcing a small hole on 3rd down and it will all go down hill from there. I understand you see no value in -9 but Saints looked really good last night and this team does close well before entering playoffs as evidenced from the last two years. Everyone is healthy in NOR, and it's the opposite for DET: a.) banged up qb, b.) running back is out, c.) tons of o-line/d-line injuries, d.) secondary is bad, e.) d-line isn't good so sproles will have a field day

    You could just wait for g-men to hit 8.5 and tease both of these to +14.5/+14, respectively. GL.
    Not much of a teaser player Hooker, used to be a wong player but the books are so good at limiting that action I kinda quit looking for it.

    I like this kid Ware a bit for the G-men and again think that they can run it a bit. Never scared to go against any team, I just cap each game on its own merit based on the matchups I see.

    I got a little info on Stafford that may be pertinent. He is going to change his protection on that finger, Thinner glove with a less rigid wrap. Apparently it is feeling much better and some thought is being given to ditch the glove by game day.

    The secondary of the Lions is a concern. They have been one of the top teams in the league this year at defending the pass and some of it is scheme and attributed to the front four. I think Harris/Wendling is a big drop at safety but am less concerned with Smith at the corner. He is a proven ball hawk just shitty against the run.

    A couple of risky plays but that is the way I see them.

    GL this weekend.

  12. #12
    billysink
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    Also looking at the Bills game and St. Louis/San Fran, Broncos/Vikes if anyone has any scoop or opinion.

  13. #13
    Stevedore
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    Backing the Lions right now seems real risky to me. They're probably the dumbest football team in the league who continually can't get out of their own way with all the penalties and mistakes they make. I have a pretty substantial over bet on their team wins at 7.5 games and am starting to get slightly worried. Nine points does seem like a lot though; the corners for NO looked pathetic against Manning with the Giant receivers turning simple hitch routes into big gainers. The Saints corners wanted no part in tackling the bigger Giant receivers. This game might have back door possibilities for Detroit as the Saints will start fast and just try to hang on late off the short week; maybe the over is a better play?

  14. #14
    billysink
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stevedore View Post
    Backing the Lions right now seems real risky to me. They're probably the dumbest football team in the league who continually can't get out of their own way with all the penalties and mistakes they make. I have a pretty substantial over bet on their team wins at 7.5 games and am starting to get slightly worried. Nine points does seem like a lot though; the corners for NO looked pathetic against Manning with the Giant receivers turning simple hitch routes into big gainers. The Saints corners wanted no part in tackling the bigger Giant receivers. This game might have back door possibilities for Detroit as the Saints will start fast and just try to hang on late off the short week; maybe the over is a better play?

    Points well taken. If they implode again this week I am gonna get beat again. And it is entirely possible.

    After what happened on Turkey Day I am hoping they learned their lesson. I too have my doubts and am starting to question the ability of Jim Schwartz to lead and develop. After all how do you come down on idiocy when you have shown the same tenancies (handshake incident).

    Stever I capped them one more time based on talent an potential thinking they have seen the bottom of the barrel and will show some resiliency.

    I may be wrong but the matchup is good and 9 is too many.

  15. #15
    blueghost
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    last time saints dropped 50 [49]on somebody they lost the next game outright to the RAMS...

  16. #16
    WinningIsKeY
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    odds.

  17. #17
    dontbuythehook
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    9 really isn't a lot it just seems like a lot b/c most numbers hover around 3 to 6.5 In reality if they lose it's going to be a beatdown and if u cover it will be backdoor. Saints have momentum and are the better team and detroit is plagued with injuries and is on a downward spiral/coming down to earth after their strong opening vs very weak teams (comeback vs dallas was more romo's fault than anything throwing 3 picks)

  18. #18
    dontbuythehook
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    Quote Originally Posted by WinningIsKeY View Post
    Odds.
    don't you dare edit that completely different post LOL..you know what you wrote and I demand you change back to it right now you indecisive spaz

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