For those who know me, know I love twin peaks. Yes the kind that stare at your face bouncing up and down while you are looking up, but I'm talking NFL betting.
The idea is to bet against any NFL team that has won SU/ATS 30-12 or greater in either direction.
The problem with week #12 is that is must be on back to back weeks.
Here our situation today:
HOU comes off a blow-out win vs CLE 30-12 (week 9) and TB 37-9(week 10). Both qualify for Derty's Twin Peaks, BUT....they had a bye this week and that changes things....or does it?
I have not run the numbers after a bye, but if they played week #11 I would have made a max bet (4% of bankroll) against them.
With a bye, the public sentiment and subsequent steam wears off a little...I love it if you hear all about them on Sportscenter, newspapers, the average Joe talking all about them....then bet it 5 minutes before kickoff to maximize contrarian public steam.
This week is alot different.
The bye cools off the public sentiment. Yes there is some steam due to the Twin Peaks--look at the line movement: Hou opened at -3 and then held to -3.5 for most of the week and then gets pounded HARD to 6.5 today.
Usually waiting shortly before kickoff gets the best line. Don't be greedy, though. In this case, if you ever see JAX+7 I'd take it. It may never get there, but don't wait around for 7.5...
Records for this play are superior. Again, the bye changes things, but a look at JAX is a strong consideration.
Some Twin Peak plays that qualified over the years that I remember:
Last year GB+14 vs NE (NE came off two huge blow-outs on SNF (or MNF) and GB played without Aaron Rodgers....everyone was scared to bet GB....I did and won easily...)
The famous Denny Green blow-up "we knew what we thought they were AND WE LET EM OFF THE HOOK!" That was ARZ vs CHC. CHC came off twin peak blow-outs and ARZ dominated them throughout, had 5-6 interceptions off of Grossman, and with a huge lucky effort, CHC won SU, but ARZ covered!!!! I bet it BIG and won...
The last one I remember was a MNF game back in the early 90's when SF was dominating everyone but the Dallas. SF was a 20 point favorite at home vs a BAD CIN Bengal team...the line steamed to SF-23.5 and I bet it and at half, CIN was WINNING 9-7 or something low like that....
SF ended up winning the game, but the ATS victory for CIN was NEVER in doubt...
Officially this is NOT a TWIN PEAKS play, but I will consider it...
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Twin Peaks Alert!
Reply With Quote
