[SteveRyan]

Just curious as to how some of you choose your parlays in the NFL. I've been doing the same strategies for some time now, and would like to hear some opinions and other perspectives.

Here is how I choose mine.

First, I do not think it is correct to go into it thinking to yourself, "This week I'm gonna make a 5 leg parlay." The problem with this approach is that you may only have 2 or 3 solid picks. This will force you scrounge together some other pics to fill up the parlay, where you will likely end up shoving some iffy pics into the picture in hopes of a winner.

What I do, is look at each and every individual match-up. I try to determine the absolute most intelligent way to bet the match so that it in itself will be a winner. For example:

Last week we watched Oakland vs Minnesota. Minnesota was favored -1 (Also a PK during the week) with the over at 45.

If we look ONLY at basic stats, we will see that Oakland is putting up about 27 points on the road this season; Minnesota is putting up about 26 at home. If we add these up, we get 53...so there's the over.

Oakland has been playing very well as of late, and better than Minnesota. Although Minnesota has lost most of their games, they are still scoring well!! So, the likely outcome is that Oakland will win in a high scoring game. I also consider, injuries, weather, short weeks, and other factors that may affect the outcome, but usually, I rely on basic stats, defensive and offensive rankings, and track record ATS (home and road). There were no indications that either team will score less than their averages. Oakland +1 (Or ML) / OVER

With most of the matches, I was not able to determine who will win, AND who will cover, AND what the total will be with strong confidence....but I can usually pick it apart and accurately get at least 1 of the three. Rarely all of it.

Then, after I have evaluated every match and determined the best way to bet each one, I choose which matches I feel confidently about. Next, I select from those, the ones I have even more confidence in....and keep doing this until I have selected my 2 or 3 highest confidence picks.

Of ALL the games from last week, these were the only 2 that I felt 100% confidence in. San Diego vs Chicago, Oakland vs Minnesota. Another match had a high confidence level for me also: Arizona vs San Francisco.

Oakland / ML
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER

Chicago / -3.5
San Diego vs Chicago / OVER

San Francisco / -9.5
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER

Obviously, we could just slam all the pics onto one ticket and hope for the best. Problem is, if one of them fails, we lose it all.

The better approach, is to divide the picks into separate parlays.

1st parlay:
Oakland / ML
San Digeo vs Chicago / OVER

2nd parlay:
Oakland vs Minnesota / OVER
Chicago / -3.5

3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER

4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5

So now, we have 2 very strong parlays here with the Oakland and Chicago matches divided up. Either team can lose or not go over, and we can still win one parlay. Only ways to lose is if both teams go under, both teams do not cover (OR win), or one team goes under and does not cover (or win).

Next, we have to fill up the Arizona vs San Francisco parlays. That's when the picks of a lesser confidence come into play. I was pretty sure that Carolina vs Detroit would go under and that Eagles vs Giants would go over, so I put those pics onto the remaining parlays.

3rd parlay:
Arizona vs San Francisco / OVER
Panthers vs Lions / UNDER

4th parlay:
San Francisco / -9.5
Eagles vs Giants / OVER


If I felt really confident about any of these remaining pics, I probably would have built a 3 or 4 leg parlay on the other cards, but because of the match-ups that week, and my skill of evaluating the outcomes, it just was not logical to do so.

As it turned out, Giants went under and Lions went over. I won 2 and lost 2 = $187 positive. ($25 placed on each parlay).

So to summarize, I evaluate each match, determine the best way to bet each one, select the strongest pics, and build the most logical parlays based upon what I have to work with. If possible, I'll build a 3, 4, or 5 leg parlay, but I rarely get the opportunity to do so.

[TheMoneyShot]

Maybe I'm not following your formula closely... It looks like 0-4 and out $100.

[SteveRyan]

Maybe I'm not following your formula closely... It looks like 0-4 and out $100.

Oakland won and hit the over (27-21)

Chicago won big and hit the over (31-20)

1st 2 won, 2nd two lost.

I netted only $87, but still I came out ahead and that is all that really matters.

[FourLengthsClear]

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[jolmscheid]

Ever think about monryline parlays?

[SteveRyan]

Ever think about monryline parlays?

I will bet money line, but again, it all depends upon what I have to work with.

I'm not going to go into it thinking, "I'm going to do a 4 leg money line parlay this week." That is the wrong way to go about making parlays.

In my opinion, its better to build your parlays depending upon what you have to work with in terms of picking the best way to bet each match and how many picks you have that have a strong confidence level.

If you have 3 or 4 money line picks that you feel strong about, then go for it. If not, dont just throw some together.

[NHL Pro Capper]

You are better off taking all of your picks and round robin the whole thing for $100. You could have 3 doubles, and win 3 games, but get 1/2 on each slip and lose it all. I love betting doubles b/c you can bet 3 a day, and need 1/3 to break even. Best overall EV is take your top 6 solid plays and round robin, and maybe throw $5 on a 6 game parlay of all 6.

Parlays are great to get a small roll going but once you can bet 100+ a game, ~5K roll, then just bet 1 game at a time. You need to bet $500 a game, and bet 15-20 per week, hit 60%, to have a shot at doing this for a living.

[NHL Pro Capper]

Maybe I'm not following your formula closely... It looks like 0-4 and out $100.

That's because you're a fking tool

[SteveRyan]

You are better off taking all of your picks and round robin the whole thing for $100. You could have 3 doubles, and win 3 games, but get 1/2 on each slip and lose it all. I love betting doubles b/c you can bet 3 a day, and need 1/3 to break even. Best overall EV is take your top 6 solid plays and round robin, and maybe throw $5 on a 6 game parlay of all 6.

Parlays are great to get a small roll going but once you can bet 100+ a game, ~5K roll, then just bet 1 game at a time. You need to bet $500 a game, and bet 15-20 per week, hit 60%, to have a shot at doing this for a living.

Thanks for the feedback; this is the kind of stuff I need to be thinking about.

If I understand you correctly, you're saying that I should have made three 2 teamers with Oakland, Chicago and SF games....like this:

Oakland ML / over
Chicago / -3.5 / over

Oakland ML / over
San Fran / -9.5 / over

Chicago / -3.5 / over
San Fran / -9.5 / over

Or should I have broken it up even further by separating the over picks and the point spreads?

[SteveRyan]

BUMP!

[billysink]

I do not play them.

[Weeton]

interesting thoughts

[JR007]

If you must play them, play correlated parleys, they are a bad investment, generally, 13.5 to 5, no good

[Deol]

That's because you're a fking tool

You of all people shouldn't be calling anyone a tool. Just look at the few losing threads you created in NHL handicapping. Seriously grow up.

Anway I would advise not to do parlays, but if you do, correlated parlays are the best. For example, I like ATL to score about 24-34 and MIN to score a bout 6-13, therefore most likely the game will go under, and therefore I would take ATL -9.5 and the Under 44.5. You can use additional point spread/game totals to get to key #. I hit a nice correlated parlay on GB this week. Took them at -9.5 and Under 52. Raised the spread and lowered the game total (+400) Wish I put more on it tho. I also like BUF +10.5 and the Under. BOL either way.

[TheMoneyShot]

That's because you're a fking tool

Hi... I'm a wanna be NHL Capper. If you knew anything about gambling... no one makes a living betting the NHL moron.