I need a little advice gentlemen.

I play in a weekly pick'em office pool that takes out 10% every week and applies it towards a cumulative pot. Whoever makes the most correct picks throughout the regular season wins the cumulative pot regardless of whether or not he won any individual weeks. Currently, I am 2 games up on everyone in this pool and it would be really nice if I can keep it up and take the pot.

Here is my conundrum: Should I continue making picks based off my gut feeling of the games like I have been or switch to just picking favorites? Experience and logic tells me that no one handicaps games better than vegas. If I pick only favorites, in theory, I think I should have a better chance of holding onto my lead than if I go with my gut. Obviously every favorite can't win every week, but if I pick the wrong underdog, then I lose 2 games instead of 1.

As far as this week is concerned, I really want to take San Fran and Oakland. Should I just stick with the favorites and let it ride, or should I pick my two underdogs and risk losing 4 games if I picked wrong and another 2 underdogs win?

Sorry for the rambling. The amount of money at stake is making me go on tilt I'm afraid I'm going to do something stupid.

Thanks in advance to anyone who takes the time to respond.