If you think about how you would bet had the line been otherwise, then you'll know whether you like -6.5/-7 or not. For instance, if the line opened at say GB -3, you would probably more than likely be all over GB and so would most everybody else. Now, I'm not saying that the Lions don't have a chance to win this game because after all, this is the NFL and anybody can win this game. But the "smart" money is on the Pack and if they were only giving up a field goal, you would be stupid not to take them. On the other hand, if GB was favored by say anywhere from 4 to 5.5, you might be less inclined to give the points. Or, if you have that much confidence in the Pack and think they will easily win by more than a touchdown, you would give those points without hesitation. Now...if the Packers were giving more that a touchdown, say anywhere from 8 to 9.5 points, would you still take them? You would probably be a lot more hesitant. Would you be more inclined to take the Lions at that point? If your answer is yes, I would stay away from the game altogether. If your answer is no, take the Packers. Could the Packers win by 2 touch downs with ease? Yes. Could the Packers lose the game outright? Yes. Have I helped make your decision any easier? Probably not. Personally, I like the Packers, but I think 7 points is a lot of points to give to a team on the road that is playing so well this year. As hard as it is for me to accept, I can't help believe in the Lions this year with the way that they have performed thus far. Nevertheless, if the Lions win this game, I'll be shocked. I envision more of a lopsided game in favor of the Packers much more than I do of an upset. Either way, it wouldn't be much of a surprise... which to me, is a reason all together for staying away from the game.
I stopped reading when someone above starting talking about the -7 road fave as good value. GB might very well cover the -7 this time, but that's so far away from saying that GB-7 is a good bet.
Detroit is the best defensive team GB has faced this season, the Lions are at home, and it's thanksgiving. Don't be too eager to lay -7 here...
Offense vs Defense. Im not sold on the Lions D. I would need more proof to take the +6 other than its Thanksgiving Day, history between these franchises, 12th man adv., and Lions pass rush. I would hate to be watching that game and hoping that Stafford connects with Johnson or Pettrigrew a few times in the 4th to crawl out of a deficit JUST to cover the 6 points. OUCH! GL to all.
win or lose betting the Packers -6.5,7 @ Detroit on Thanksgiving Day is square as shit. Look around for a 7 at some square shop like Bodog and take the Lions.
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