Another great Sunday! Record was 13-7-1, +5.27 units. For those of you wondering, no, I'm not really as good as this year's record makes me look. Over the long haul, my record is much more typical of any pretty good NFL handicapper. Over the past three seasons (how long I've been tracking it), I've had a 57.14% winning percentage on sides, and 55.56% on totals. Definitely very profitable, but not nearly as profitable as this year's record would make it seem.
On tonight's game, I've got no play on sides. Some subjective factors would indicate that the Seahawks are the best play on the spread, but I never bet based on subjective factors. I'm a numbers guy. So I'm passing on the side. I'm feeling pretty good about a play on the total, though:
Time for Thursday night football! A lot of people are worried about the spread on the Jaguars because of some injuries, but my formulas still figure them to cover this spread pretty easily. On the total, the under is about as close to a sure thing as you can find in NFL wagering. Note that that doesn't mean that it actually is a sure thing, so you shouldn't "go big" on it. There is no such thing as a true "sure thing" in any sports betting, so I'm a firm advocate of flat betting a percentage of your bankroll (preferably 1%) on every bet you make. The picks:
And that's exactly why I say that there's no such thing as a sure thing. Really surprised that the Falcons were able to put that many points on the board. Anyway, tonight's record was 0-2, -2.0 units. Remember, there's an additional game on Saturday night this week. Hopefully I do better then than I did tonight.
Ah, Saturday night football. Excellent, since I've had to work Sunday and Monday nights all month. This one is a bit close to call on both the side and the total, but my model has it worth a play on both. Heritage has the line on the total at 47.5, but most books have 47, which is still fine. Don't take 46.5, though. The picks:
Pretty good day. And even better, Tebow got hammered by Brady and the Pats. Hopefully ESPN will now shut the hell up about Tebow already! Anyway, today's record was 12-7-1, +4.02 units.
Great game tonight for monday night football. The Rapist is playing, but he's injured. The lines seem to be factoring the injury pretty heavily, and I think overstating the effect of it. I still see the Steelers winning this game outright by maybe a field goal, so getting three points is a good play. The total is a closer call, but the injuries on both sides help, I think, so I'm comfortable with the under at 38. If all you can find is a 37.5, I'd be more hesitant, but I'd probably still take it. The picks:
I'm passing on tonight's game, both total and side. Going by pure numbers, as I always do, both are too close to call. If you're a subjective factors guy, then this game becomes too unpredictable. The Colts could be highly motivated to get a second win in a row, or they could just not care, since their season has basically been a waste. The Texans already have a playoff spot locked, so they could be playing lots of second and third string players. So, whether you like numbers or subjective criteria in making picks, this one isn't a good idea to play in my opinion. Just enjoy watching.
Alright, it's week 17. Time for the final week of the regular season. Here are the picks for the 1pm games, with the late afternoon games to follow around 2pm or so:
Redskins @ Eagles UNDER 45.5 -108
Redskins @ EAGLES -8 -108
49ers @ Rams OVER 35.5 -108
BEARS @ Vikings +2 -110
Lions @ Packers OVER 41.5 -108
Panthers @ Saints UNDER 55 -108
Panthers @ SAINTS -7 -110
Titans @ Texans OVER 39 -108
Titans @ TEXANS +1.5 -108
Jets @ Dolphins UNDER 39 -108
JETS @ Dolphins +3 -110
Bills @ Patriots OVER 49.5 -108
Damn, that was a great way to end the season! This has been one hell of a great regular season for me. Let's hope it continues into the post-season. Even if it doesn't, I'll still be up significantly for the year, making for three straight winning seasons. I'm happy. Record today was 16-7, +7.79 units.
Playoffs time! I'm really looking forward to it this year. Lots of good games ahead. After a great regular season, hopefully I can keep the streak going all the way through the postseason. Wish me luck! Here are the first postseason picks:
Back to postseason football! I know everyone is focused on this Tebow game for some reason, and everyone wants some action on it, but frankly, the line is just too sharp. At a 13.5 spread, there isn't any value there. If you absolutely have to take someone, then I would lean towards the Broncos, but I really recommend avoiding a side and just sticking with the total where I think there is some value. Anyway, here are my picks for the day:
Saints @ 49ers UNDER 47 -108
SAINTS @ 49ers -3.5 -108
Broncos @ Patriots OVER 50 -110
Damn, Tebow got hammered! I didn't get to watch the game because I was working, but 45-10 is a lot worse than I figured it would be. Anyway, record for the night was 1-2, -1.09 units.
Alright, time for the big day! Unfortunately, the 49ers/Giants game is too close to call on sides, but at least I could find some value on the total, so I've got plays on both games. I think the Patriots win by about 10, so the spread at -7 isn't too bad. Should be two good games. Here are the picks:
Ravens @ Patriots OVER 50 -110
Ravens @ PATRIOTS -7 -108
Giants @ 49ers OVER 41.5 -108
The lines have settled down, and I don't think the odds are getting any better by tomorrow, so I'm going ahead and locking in my plays for the Super Bowl. Here they are: