1. #36
    toddorts
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    Another great Sunday! Record was 13-7-1, +5.27 units. For those of you wondering, no, I'm not really as good as this year's record makes me look. Over the long haul, my record is much more typical of any pretty good NFL handicapper. Over the past three seasons (how long I've been tracking it), I've had a 57.14% winning percentage on sides, and 55.56% on totals. Definitely very profitable, but not nearly as profitable as this year's record would make it seem.

    Record:

    64-32-2
    66.67%
    +27.79 units

  2. #37
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    On tonight's game, I've got no play on sides. Some subjective factors would indicate that the Seahawks are the best play on the spread, but I never bet based on subjective factors. I'm a numbers guy. So I'm passing on the side. I'm feeling pretty good about a play on the total, though:

    Rams @ Seahawks UNDER 38 -110

  3. #38
    toddorts
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    Close, but no cigar. Record for the night was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

    Record:

    64-33-2
    65.98%
    +26.79 units

  4. #39
    toddorts
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    Time for Thursday night football! A lot of people are worried about the spread on the Jaguars because of some injuries, but my formulas still figure them to cover this spread pretty easily. On the total, the under is about as close to a sure thing as you can find in NFL wagering. Note that that doesn't mean that it actually is a sure thing, so you shouldn't "go big" on it. There is no such thing as a true "sure thing" in any sports betting, so I'm a firm advocate of flat betting a percentage of your bankroll (preferably 1%) on every bet you make. The picks:

    JAGUARS @ Falcons +14 -110
    Jaguars @ Falcons UNDER 42 -108

  5. #40
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    And that's exactly why I say that there's no such thing as a sure thing. Really surprised that the Falcons were able to put that many points on the board. Anyway, tonight's record was 0-2, -2.0 units. Remember, there's an additional game on Saturday night this week. Hopefully I do better then than I did tonight.

    Record:

    64-35-2
    64.65%
    +24.79 units

  6. #41
    toddorts
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    Ah, Saturday night football. Excellent, since I've had to work Sunday and Monday nights all month. This one is a bit close to call on both the side and the total, but my model has it worth a play on both. Heritage has the line on the total at 47.5, but most books have 47, which is still fine. Don't take 46.5, though. The picks:

    Cowboys @ BUCS +7 -110
    Cowboys @ Bucs UNDER 47.5 -108

  7. #42
    toddorts
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    Thought for a little while there that both bets may go down in flames, but turned out 1-1 for the night, -0.08 units.

    Record:

    65-36-2
    64.36%
    +24.71 units

  8. #43
    toddorts
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    Ok, football Sunday time! Here are the picks for the 1pm games. The picks for the later games will be posted early afternoon after I get some sleep.

    Redskins @ Giants UNDER 46.5 -110
    Redskins @ GIANTS -6 -110
    Packers @ Chiefs UNDER 46 -108
    Saints @ Vikings UNDER 53 -108
    SAINTS @ Vikings -7.5 -108
    Seahawks @ Bears OVER 35 -110
    Seahawks @ BEARS -3.5 -108
    Dolphins @ Bills UNDER 41 -110
    Panthers @ Texans UNDER 45 -108
    Panthers @ TEXANS -6 -108
    Titans @ Colts UNDER 41.5 -110

  9. #44
    toddorts
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    Got a lot of plays today. Here are the late afternoon and night game picks:

    Lions @ Raiders OVER 47.5 -110
    LIONS @ Raiders -3 +110
    Patriots @ Broncos OVER 47.5 -108
    Jets @ Eagles OVER 44 -108
    JETS @ Eagles +3 -110
    Browns @ Cardinals UNDER 37 -108
    BROWNS @ Cardinals +6 -108
    Ravens @ Chargers OVER 44 -110
    Ravens @ CHARGERS +2.5 -108

  10. #45
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    Pretty good day. And even better, Tebow got hammered by Brady and the Pats. Hopefully ESPN will now shut the hell up about Tebow already! Anyway, today's record was 12-7-1, +4.02 units.

    Record:

    77-43-3
    64.17%
    +28.73 units

  11. #46
    toddorts
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    Great game tonight for monday night football. The Rapist is playing, but he's injured. The lines seem to be factoring the injury pretty heavily, and I think overstating the effect of it. I still see the Steelers winning this game outright by maybe a field goal, so getting three points is a good play. The total is a closer call, but the injuries on both sides help, I think, so I'm comfortable with the under at 38. If all you can find is a 37.5, I'd be more hesitant, but I'd probably still take it. The picks:

    STEELERS @ 49ers +3 -115
    Steelers @ 49ers UNDER 38 -108

  12. #47
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    Mixed bag tonight at 1-1, -0.08 units.

    Record:

    78-44-3
    63.93%
    +28.65 units

  13. #48
    toddorts
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    I'm passing on tonight's game, both total and side. Going by pure numbers, as I always do, both are too close to call. If you're a subjective factors guy, then this game becomes too unpredictable. The Colts could be highly motivated to get a second win in a row, or they could just not care, since their season has basically been a waste. The Texans already have a playoff spot locked, so they could be playing lots of second and third string players. So, whether you like numbers or subjective criteria in making picks, this one isn't a good idea to play in my opinion. Just enjoy watching.

  14. #49
    toddorts
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    Football Saturday this week. Here are the picks for the 1pm games. The 4pm and later games will have picks posted early afternoon, as usual.

    Raiders @ Chiefs OVER 42 -108
    RAIDERS @ Chiefs +2.5 -103
    Broncos @ Bills OVER 43 -108
    Broncos @ BILLS +2.5 -103
    Jaguars @ Titans UNDER 40 -108
    Jaguars @ TITANS -7 -110
    Cardinals @ BENGALS -4 -108
    Dolphins @ Patriots OVER 50 -108
    Dolphins @ PATRIOTS -9 -110
    Browns @ Ravens UNDER 38.5 -108
    Giants @ Jets OVER 47 -108
    Giants @ JETS -3 +102
    Bucs @ Panthers UNDER 47.5 -108

  15. #50
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    Time for the afternoon picks:

    Chargers @ Lions UNDER 53 -110
    49ers @ Seahawks UNDER 37.5 -108
    49ers @ SEAHAWKS +2 -110
    Eagles @ Cowboys OVER 50 -110
    Eagles @ COWBOYS +1 -108

  16. #51
    toddorts
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    Well, basically a do-nothing day. Hopefully the next two nights will make up for it. Record for today was 8-8-2, -0.52 units.

    Record:

    86-52-5
    62.32%
    +28.13 units

  17. #52
    toddorts
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    Only one play on tonight's game. On sides, the spread is sharp, in my estimation. Only the total has value:

    Bears @ Packers OVER 41.5 -108

  18. #53
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    Forgot to update the record after last night's game. It was 1-0, +0.93 units.

    Record:

    87-52-5
    62.59%
    +29.06 units

  19. #54
    toddorts
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    Should be a good game in New Orleans tonight, and I've got picks on both the side and total:

    Falcons @ Saints UNDER 53 -108
    Falcons @ SAINTS -7 -108

  20. #55
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    Forgot to update the record last night. Went 1-1, -0.07 units.

    Record:

    88-53-5
    62.41%
    +28.99 units

  21. #56
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    Alright, it's week 17. Time for the final week of the regular season. Here are the picks for the 1pm games, with the late afternoon games to follow around 2pm or so:

    Redskins @ Eagles UNDER 45.5 -108
    Redskins @ EAGLES -8 -108
    49ers @ Rams OVER 35.5 -108
    BEARS @ Vikings +2 -110
    Lions @ Packers OVER 41.5 -108
    Panthers @ Saints UNDER 55 -108
    Panthers @ SAINTS -7 -110
    Titans @ Texans OVER 39 -108
    Titans @ TEXANS +1.5 -108
    Jets @ Dolphins UNDER 39 -108
    JETS @ Dolphins +3 -110
    Bills @ Patriots OVER 49.5 -108

  22. #57
    toddorts
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    Man, lots of games with value today! Here are the rest of the picks:

    Bucs @ Falcons OVER 45.5 -108
    Bucs @ FALCONS -9.5 -108
    Cowboys @ Giants OVER 47.5-108
    Ravens @ Bengals OVER 37.5 -110
    Steelers @ BROWNS +7 -108
    Chargers @ Raiders UNDER 48.5 -108
    CHARGERS @ Raiders +2.5 -103
    Chiefs @ Broncos OVER 37.5 -108
    Chiefs @ BRONCOS -2 -108
    Seahawks @ Cardinals UNDER 40.5 -108
    SEAHAWKS @ Cardinals +2.5 -108

  23. #58
    toddorts
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    Damn, that was a great way to end the season! This has been one hell of a great regular season for me. Let's hope it continues into the post-season. Even if it doesn't, I'll still be up significantly for the year, making for three straight winning seasons. I'm happy. Record today was 16-7, +7.79 units.

    Record:

    104-60-5
    63.41%
    +36.78 units

  24. #59
    toddorts
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    Playoffs time! I'm really looking forward to it this year. Lots of good games ahead. After a great regular season, hopefully I can keep the streak going all the way through the postseason. Wish me luck! Here are the first postseason picks:

    Bengals @ Texans OVER 38 -108
    Bengals @ TEXANS -4 -108
    Lions @ Saints UNDER 59.5 -110
    Lion @ SAINTS -10.5 -108

  25. #60
    toddorts
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    A great start to the postseason! Went 3-1 for the day, +1.78 units.

    Record:

    107-61-5
    63.69%
    +38.56 units

  26. #61
    toddorts
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    Time for today's picks. Tougher calls than yesterday, but still plays on sides and totals for both games.

    Falcons @ Giants OVER 47.5 -108
    FALCONS @ Giants +3 -105
    Steelers @ Broncos OVER 33.5 -108
    Steelers @ BRONCOS +7.5 -108

  27. #62
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    Mixed result today at 2-2, -0.15 units.

    Record:

    109-63-5
    63.37%
    +38.41 units

  28. #63
    toddorts
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    Back to postseason football! I know everyone is focused on this Tebow game for some reason, and everyone wants some action on it, but frankly, the line is just too sharp. At a 13.5 spread, there isn't any value there. If you absolutely have to take someone, then I would lean towards the Broncos, but I really recommend avoiding a side and just sticking with the total where I think there is some value. Anyway, here are my picks for the day:

    Saints @ 49ers UNDER 47 -108
    SAINTS @ 49ers -3.5 -108
    Broncos @ Patriots OVER 50 -110

  29. #64
    toddorts
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    Damn, Tebow got hammered! I didn't get to watch the game because I was working, but 45-10 is a lot worse than I figured it would be. Anyway, record for the night was 1-2, -1.09 units.

    Record:

    110-65-5
    62.86%
    +37.32 units

  30. #65
    toddorts
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    Here are today's picks. Should be two good games.

    Texans @ Ravens OVER 36.5 -110
    TEXANS @ Ravens +7.5 -108
    Giants @ Packers OVER 53 -108
    Giants @ PACKERS -7.5 -103

  31. #66
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    Mixed day at 2-2, -0.15 units.

    Record:

    112-67-5
    62.57%
    +37.17 units

  32. #67
    toddorts
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    Alright, time for the big day! Unfortunately, the 49ers/Giants game is too close to call on sides, but at least I could find some value on the total, so I've got plays on both games. I think the Patriots win by about 10, so the spread at -7 isn't too bad. Should be two good games. Here are the picks:

    Ravens @ Patriots OVER 50 -110
    Ravens @ PATRIOTS -7 -108
    Giants @ 49ers OVER 41.5 -108

  33. #68
    81_84
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    Been peeking in your thread all year. Very well done sir.

    I like all your plays todays , Bol.

    I think everyone is making to big a deal about the weather in SF.

  34. #69
    toddorts
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    Damn, bad day. Went 0-3, -3.0 units. Definitely two really good games, though.

    Record:

    112-70-5
    61.54%
    +34.17 units

  35. #70
    toddorts
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    The lines have settled down, and I don't think the odds are getting any better by tomorrow, so I'm going ahead and locking in my plays for the Super Bowl. Here they are:

    Giants @ PATRIOTS -3 +100
    Giants @ Patriots OVER 54 -108

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