[vyomguy]

i already took chargers on sunday night opener for the max. good luck man. But I got a bad opening number of +3.5

[MoneyLineDawg]

Books are probably doing their worst through October in a long time though, NCAA/ NFL combined

Lakerboy, what's you're reasoning in just blindly fading the public? Just a feeling books will cleanup this week? Most likely you break around even, but GL......

[k13]

LB, Pinny just lowered their limits from 70k to a $100.

They can't take the beating anymore.

[lakerboy]

Pinny had 140k limit on the game last night.

[paco]

LB, Pinny just lowered their limits from 70k to a $100.

They can't take the beating anymore.

Guess u can't have a decent logical conversation. I never said books are closing up, but simply they been losing more than usual. I know locals who even said they havnt had to cash out this much in quite a few years. They said Packers killed them the most every single week.

U keep on killing them big timer Pinnacle player

[k13]

Guess u can't have a decent logical conversation. I never said books are closing up, but simply they been losing more than usual. I know locals who even said they havnt had to cash out this much in quite a few years. They said Packers killed them the most every single week.

U keep on killing them big timer Pinnacle player

But we don't know the exact details without actual numbers.

I know what you are trying to say but we need actual data like Vegas releases for the Super Bowl.

I won't be hurting the books anytime soon unless the Niners win the Super Bowl.

[lakerboy]

Guess u can't have a decent logical conversation. I never said books are closing up, but simply they been losing more than usual. I know locals who even said they havnt had to cash out this much in quite a few years. They said Packers killed them the most every single week.

U keep on killing them big timer Pinnacle player

Books go through streaks but they win cause players on losing streaks have no bankroll management.

[ttrace35]

Books did pretty good last week. Giants/balt/saints didn't cover. That shit doesn't usually happen 2 weeks in a row. Last week was the week to use this theory. IMO. Good luck lb.

[lakerboy]

Glad u woke up from ur nap tracer. Cheers.

[t-wizzle]

Why the fukk is Oakland a 9 point fave with that mess at quarterback?

[lakerboy]

Because palmer has had time to figure out the offense so now oak will blowout den which just got blown out at home to the lions. Common twiz teams that get blown out don't rebound so thus the -9 line for oakville(land).

[Djstucky]

Why the fukk is Oakland a 9 point fave with that mess at quarterback?

Because the broncos have a bigger mess at qb...

[JR007]

good discussion guys, thanks

[t-wizzle]

Because palmer has had time to figure out the offense so now oak will blowout den which just got blown out at home to the lions. Common twiz teams that get blown out don't rebound so thus the -9 line for oakville(land).

Game should go under. Oakland will run the ball with McFadden and chew up clock. Denver won't score much with Tebow. Score should be in the teens for both squads.

[big0mar]

If these are all anticipated to be public bets shouldn't they all move to better numbers as the week progresses?

If so, why would you bet them now?

The lines move based on money, not based on how many people are betting on a side.

[7secondsOrLess]

so sad just stop everyone knows youre a loser

[7secondsOrLess]

let me guess if u lose all plays itll be a good day or youll have broken even for the day lmfao

[face]

why is the spread number going down on KC when everyone is on them? not a big rlm guy, but rlm on dolphins

[big0mar]

why is the spread number going down on KC when everyone is on them? not a big rlm guy, but rlm on dolphins

Because there is more money being wagered on the Dolphins than the Chiefs. Its not difficult to figure out.

[dontbuythehook]

The haters are lurking and waiting till sunday. The bottomline is to make profit. Obviously i need sd to cover. My personal favorite play this week is the Pats.

No. I could have chimed in on your pathetic SD loss when you wrote how easy the play was going to be then still lost like a complete retarded jackass. Your two all-in plays on Texas game 6/7? Yeah, we haven't forgotten about those either. You know what though lakerboy I'm personally done with you b/c at this point you've publicly admitted that you ******* suck at handicapping through your monster fail threads. Now if anyone is going to come and insult you when you lose, then they are more delusional than you are to think that anyone gives a rats ass about a washed up conspiracy theorist unit chasing scrub.

That is all.

-dontbuythehook

[face]

Because there is more money being wagered on the Dolphins than the Chiefs. Its not difficult to figure out.

i think more money is on chiefs.

[big0mar]

i think more money is on chiefs.

That is false.

[neverstoppers23]

Yes.

Public will think the Giants is a steal.

Pats win by at least 14.

Not to sure of that. Pats secondary sucks. It does it sucks. Eli Manning has been having a good year 101 qb rating, and Cruz has looked like a top WR in this league so far. Nicks.

And the one thing you have to do to beat brady is get to him, giants front four certainly can do that.

See this game around a touchdown 5-8 points.

[dontbuythehook]

Giants line seems spot on. Pats on a neutral field have to be favored by 4-5 at least, then you factor in home field and it's a no brainer it's at 8-8.5. no coin go back to college *****

[ManBearPig]

I got curious and went and looked at how favorites do the first 8 weeks vs the second 8 weeks by season. A few outliers, but it looks like the percentages favor the books.

Favorite through wk8

Favorites after wk8

[GunShard]

The haters are lurking and waiting till sunday. The bottomline is to make profit. Obviously i need sd to cover. My personal favorite play this week is the Pats.

Lakerboy, are you aware that you have faded a Patriots trend without knowing it?

When the Patriots lost then fought the Raiders the following week, they won and covered the spread. You were on the Raiders.

Now this week, the Patriots lost to the Eagles last week and will play against the Giants this week.
Do you believe the Patriots will win and cover the spread? Or will you bet on the Giants like you did on the Raiders?

I forget the statistics, but I think it was something like 23-3 SU after the Patriots loses a game the previous week.

[lakerboy]

Gun I like the pats but I can't pull the trigger yet

[GunShard]

Gun I like the pats but I can't pull the trigger yet

The Patriots ML might be the better play than the ATS.

[JR007]

W-L-T, Av Line / O-U-T, Av Tot

SF: 6-0-1, +0.3 / 4-3-0, 41.5
Cin: 6-1-0, +0.1 / 5-2-0, 39.3
Buf: 5-1-1, +1.1 / 4-2-1, 46.7
Car: 5-2-1, +3.0 / 5-3-0, 45.0
Det: 5-2-1, -3.1 / 5-3-0, 45.2
GB: 5-2-0, -8.6 / 4-3-0, 47.9
Bal: 4-3-0, -6.6 / 5-2-0, 40.8
Hou: 4-3-1, -2.1 / 2-6-0, 45.9
KC: 4-2-0, +4.5 / 3-3-0, 41.4
Min: 4-3-1, +2.3 / 4-3-1, 43.4
NEng: 4-3-0, -6.4 / 4-3-0, 52.4
NOrl: 4-4-0, -6.6 / 5-3-0, 48.8
Pit: 4-4-0, -4.4 / 4-4-0, 42.3
Ten: 4-3-0, -0.8 / 4-3-0, 40.7
Atl: 3-4-0, +0.4 / 3-4-0, 46.7
Chi: 3-4-0, +1.0 / 3-4-0, 44.3
Dal: 3-3-1, -1.1 / 3-4-0, 45.6
NYG: 3-4-0, -3.5 / 4-2-1, 43.8
NYJ: 3-4-0, -1.6 / 5-2-0, 42.9
Oak: 3-2-2, +1.4 / 3-4-0, 44.6
Phi: 3-4-0, -5.0 / 4-3-0, 47.4
Sea: 3-3-1, +5.9, / 4-3-0, 40.3
TB: 3-4-0, +0.2 / 4-3-0, 43.3
Was: 3-4-0, +1.4 / 2-5-0, 43.8
Ari: 2-4-1, +2.1 / 4-3-0, 42.8
Den: 2-5-0, +2.8 / 5-2-0, 42.9
Ind: 2-6-0, +7.1 / 6-2-0, 41.8
Jac: 2-5-1, +6.3 / 1-7-0, 40.4
Mia: 2-5-0, +5.1 / 1-6-0, 43.9
SD: 2-4-0, -4.6 / 3-2-1, 45.7
Cle: 1-4-2, +0.3 / 3-4-0, 39.8
St.L: 1-6-0, +8.6 / 4-3-0, 43.8

The table above shows the NFL point spread records for the first eight weeks (excluding Mon nite

[JoMoney2785]

great post JR..where did u get this??

[JR007]

" San Francisco and Cincinnati are teams with a
defensive and run-the-ball mentality. Those
teams won’t always be good vs. the spread in
the NFL. It’s hard to string together blowout wins
as favorites with that kind of base philosophy.
Theoretically, if San Francisco and Cincinnati
were taking the field at -7 or -8 every week,
their point-spread records wouldn’t be as good
as they are. (In reality, three of San Francisco’s
wins have been by 16, 45 and 10 points). If they
start showing up at -9 on a regular basis like the
49ers were against Cleveland last Sunday, their
winning percentages vs. the spread would certainly
decline. At that level, 49ers’ backers --
needed a
very late field goal to carry the day in a 20-10
win.

Anyway, San Francisco and Cincinnati were ‘hot’
teams coming into last season, with a hidden
reason to regress. Their failures last season created
lots of skepticism heading into 2011, and
exhibition results helped create more negative
outlooks. But with a coaching change for San
Francisco (Year One always carries the greatest
potential for ‘surprise’) came offensive and
defensive adjustments plus fewer turnovers.
Bingo, instant value. Cincinnati has one of the
longest-tenured coaching staffs, but they rid
themselves of three Human Anchors masquerading
as cornerstones: QB Carson Palmer,
WRs Terrell Owens, WR Chad Ochocinco. Bingo,
instant elevation. Once again: Wide receiver is
the least important position in football! The
49ers and Bengals have been getting it done –
to this point -- throwing to tight ends a lot.""

[JR007]

great post jr..where did u get this??

pm me dude, i will give you the info

[SethM_6]

jr, wanna pm me that info as well?

[DJ Dana]

Game should go under. Oakland will run the ball with McFadden and chew up clock. Denver won't score much with Tebow. Score should be in the teens for both squads.

I'm not sure Run DMC is going to play at this point. Just an FYI if you're on the Raiders

[JR007]

SEPTEMBER 21, 2011-- Let’s Talk About Turnovers: the turnover is still probably the most overlooked part of football.. The best piece about turnovers that I ever read didn’t come from some ESPN clown more concerned about who is more 'now' and 'elite' and who isn’t, or some sportswriter goof who writes about how many yards Cam Newton throws for and calls it a record. It was written 14 years ago by an Iowa State Professor of Statistics…<TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD width=400></TD><TD></TD><TD width=10></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE border=0 cellSpacing=8 cellPadding=8 width="100%" bgColor=#fffdef><TBODY><TR><TD>

continued from home page

.., which is why the public isn’t familiar with it. Here is an excerpt from “American Football: by Hal S. Stern, Department of Statistics, Iowa State University, December 24, 1997: First, he referenced a study that had been done 26 years earlier:

“…First, we describe Carter and Machol's [study on NFL football done in 1971) use of their results to evaluate the football wisdom that says turnovers (losing the ball to your opponent by making a gross error) near one's own goal are more costly than turnovers elsewhere on the field. A turnover at one's own 15-yard-line (85 yards from the target goal) changes a team from having expected value -0.64 to -4.57 (the opponent's value after taking possession is 4:57), a drop of 3.93 expected points. The same turnover at the opponent's 45-yard-line changes the expected points from 2:39 to -1:54, a drop of 3.93 expected points! Turnovers are worth about 4 points and this value doesn't seem to depend on the location at which the turnover occurs.”

Four points is more than a field goal! Next to the touchdown, a turnover is the hidden second-highest scoring factor in football -- indirectly and on average, of course. Four points per turnover is why the Indianapolis Colts chose Kerry Collins over Curtis Painter after Peyton Manning became unavailable due to injury. As a 16-season veteran, Collins is less likely to throw interceptions. Sure, he got sacked and fumbled (losing two, what else is new, that was to be expected!) on opening day at Houston. But guess who had the positive turnover margin in that 34-7 win by Houston on opening day? It was Indianapolis, +1. Collins did not throw an interception. If Painter had played, the Colts probably would have lost that game 51-7 with Houston tacking on an extra two touchdowns on, or on drives following, interceptions. Collins threw only one interception against Cleveland last week. He also lost a fumble (again, that’s what Kerry Collins does), but the Colts were only -1 in Turnover Ratio for the game. Which probably means that instead of losing 27-19 to Cleveland (as a +3 home underdog), Indianapolis would have lost 34-10 to Cleveland on their home field had Painter played. Wow, they’re horrible! Their general manager has done the worst job of building an NFL team because with the loss of one guy, their next-best option at the position is someone with whom the best-case scenario so far is that they lose without being embarrassed on the scoreboard, but still by more than the spread!

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