[Limey]

Losing my laptop to a virus for a week has really thrown me off. My in-depth 40 hours per week analysis routine got royally screwed. Here's hoping I can scrape through with a profit from the following fingers-crossed five bets:


Vikings @ Panthers
I expect some clock-chewing drives from the Vikings against a reasonably porous Panthers defense. At the same time, I don't expect Christian Ponder (63 passer rating last week) to light up the Carolina air, and I note that the Vikings are performing well in red-zone defense where the Panthers have already had problems. It all screams 'under' to me.
Mystic Limey forsees: Minnesota 17 - 20 Carolina
7 units UNDER 47 points


Redskins @ Bills
Having lived in Ontario for a while I know that the Bills draw a lot of support from the principality, even for actual home games in Buffalo. Their 0-3 record at the Rogers Centre has more to do with them being rubbish for the last few years than any lack of home advantage.

Still, I have a couple of statistical indicators that suggest the Bills are not as good as their record suggests. While I worry about Redskins QB John Beck (two fumbles and four sacks at Carolina) I will take a shot with the defensively-sound Redskins here.
Mystic Limey forsees: Washington 22 - 19 Buffalo
4 units Redskins +4


Lions @ Broncos
The Lions are my second team for family reasons, but I fear their slide might continue here. They've looked a little exposed the last couple of weeks and in several areas their stats don't really outstrip Denver. Detroit have had a tough run of games and I fancy their players might be very keen to get into the bye week even at 5-3 as they face this non-conference road game.

Denver have played almost all their games tough, and despite Tebow's pretty poor performance so far (his 94 rating is one of those that really makes you question the passer-rating equation) I have this sick gut feeling that he'll get another win here; the gods of hype are greedy mo-fo's.
Mystic Limey forsees: Detroit 19 - 24 Denver
4 units Broncos +3


Patriots @ Steelers
Since I'm in full-disclosure mode, the Pats are my first team. (Since 1985, lest you accuse me of jumping on a bandwagon). This seems to make me quite inclined to bet against them, being British and hence congenitally pessimistic.

Anyway, I have my team down as over-rated on defense, at least in terms of points conceded. While the 'D' looked pretty darn good on an eyesight assessment in the win over Dallas two weeks ago, I still think that a well-rounded Pittsburgh team - who seem to be improving as the season goes on - may well get the home win.

I also fancy this game to go under the very high total of 52.5. You can expect New England to run the ball a lot and to struggle to score as freely as usual.
Mystic Limey forsees: Wonderful New England 23 - 24 Horrible Pittsburgh
4 units Steelers 2.5
6 units UNDER 52.5


I have no soccer this weekend thanks to un-seasonal snow, so once Spurs v QPR is finished on telly I will be enjoying my NFL SUNDAY with you. Cheers!

[Limey]

Fair to say I couldn't have been more wrong with the Redskins and Broncos bets, but 3-2 for another profitable Sunday. This season is going really well so far.