[Machine Choice]

Machine Choice Football: 24-13 (65%)

Cashed my ticket on the Bears today, and now looking for a 2-0 Sunday. Let's roll.

Saints haven't been home to the dome in three weeks, and now they get the Colts who must surely be running on fumes by now. Their defense is getting worn out and broken by the lack of offensive production. You might expect the Saints to overlook the Colts and fall into a trap, but see that already happened last week...when the Saints lost to the Bucs. I expect them to be more disciplined this week after that wake-up call, and after getting embarassed they will be anxious to reassert their dominance and silence the peanut gallery in primetime.

Saints are 2-0 ATS in the dome this year and if they are motivated for this game -- and I think they will be -- this game won't be close, with or without Kerry Colins. Brees is going to tee-off against that secondary. Saints will pull away in the 3rd Qtr and slam the cover door closed in the 4th.

Over-think this at your peril.

Saints 35
Colts 19

SAINTS -13.5
$261 to win $237

[ZBOIZ]

Machine just to give you a heads up Saints -3 (1st quarter) is solid also

[TodaysLocks]

Hey man, usually like your plays, but Indy ain't getting beat by two TDs here.

Good luck w the play!

[BernardMadoff]

I dont expect the Saints to overlook anybody losing the way they did last week.

[Machine Choice]

Hey man, usually like your plays, but Indy ain't getting beat by two TDs here.

Good luck w the play!

LOL, looks like Indy will try to lose on purpose:

From AP story:


In fact, now that fantasizing about playing in a home-field Super Bowl in February seems pointless, Indianapolis owner Jim Irsay's visions have shifted two months later to draft day in New York, where the Colts currently stand first in line for a first crack at the phenom of the 2012 class -- Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck.
"Guys like that come along so rarely," Irsay said of the prospect of drafting Luck. "Even if that means that guy sits for three or four years, you'd certainly think about taking him. You see what Green Bay did with [Brett] Favre and [Aaron] Rodgers and you'd like to be able to do the same thing."

[riffraff24]

Hey machine. Bodog has this at -14. Would you still take the bet there or lay off?

[Machine Choice]

Hey machine. Bodog has this at -14. Would you still take the bet there or lay off?

**** yes, take it! It's basically the same bet. And get a different book, Bodog always has bad lines on favorites.

[Pivotpoint]

I'm with you on this one. Also have Saints - 13 1/2 . Hate laying 2 TD's in NFL, but no Manning and Colts D hobbled. Brees should bounce back strong here. Saints can be shaky as big Favs, but this is the Colts and Saints 11-3 ATS vs AFC. Lets close out the day with a win.

[klrqn]

sounds about right

[lesterdymond]

lets do this **

NICE WORK on the Bears pk

[NardVa]

I think the Colts cover. Probably a backdoor cover.

[DJ Dana]

**** yes, take it! It's basically the same bet. And get a different book, Bodog always has bad lines on favorites.

How in the WORLD is 14 pts the same as 13.5 pts?

[BernardMadoff]

How in the WORLD is 14 pts the same as 13.5 pts?

Its not.

[laxbrah420]

anybody who suggests that 13.5 and 14 is the same thing should be considered a scrub and their picks considered as such.

[Romocide]

What a shit ton of luck it would be for the Colts to end up with the 2 greatest QB draft prospects of the last 20 years.

[Machine Choice]

anybody who suggests that 13.5 and 14 is the same thing should be considered a scrub and their picks considered as such.

I was just saying that it's the same in the sense that he won't lose money if New Orleans wins by exactly 14 points. Granted, if the game lands on 14 it's a push for him instead of a win. But at least he won't lose any cash, therefore there is no extra risk in the short term.

Good god, what's so hard about comprehending that? I swear some of you act like you didn't get past third grade in Math. And yet you're wagering on events that require at least a rudimentary understanding of stats.

[mngambler]

gotta cash my bailout play from getting raped on college ball yesterday, before I can do the other half of it tonight lol


3 Team Parlay #228922652 (Placed by Web)Football - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
NFL - WEEK 7
This game is being played at Wembley Stadium - London, England.
(401) Chicago Bears -1½ (-110) Sun@12:00p
Competitor402) Tampa Bay BuccaneersFootball - NFL Lines (Game) Point Spread
NFL - WEEK 7
(411) Denver Broncos Pick (-115) Sun@12:00p
Competitor412) Miami DolphinsFootball - NFL Lines (Game) Moneyline
NFL - WEEK 7
(417) Pittsburgh Steelers -210 Sun@3:05p
Competitor418) Arizona CardinalsRisk US$ 200.00 to win US$ 853.75

[MakeitRain]

What is this John ryAn guys story? I'm new here someone clue me in.

[GETMONEY407]

would you recommend buying a half a point to bring it down to 13.5 if a book is offering 14?

[SilverTongueFox]

If you are only looking to tail picks and can't get the same line, then buy the points. It's that simple and will keep crap questions out of someone elses thread. Otherwise cap yourself.

[Machine Choice]

anybody who suggests that 13.5 and 14 is the same thing should be considered a scrub and their picks considered as such.

Oh, and by the way, go eff yourself calling me a scrub when you have all of 100 posts and no track record. That's comical, champ.

[mngambler]

Machine just to give you a heads up Saints -3 (1st quarter) is solid also

I like it..too bad its -3.5 on bodog...christ I need a new book

[BernardMadoff]

I was just saying that it's the same in the sense that he won't lose money if New Orleans wins by exactly 14 points. Granted, if the game lands on 14 it's a push for him instead of a win. But at least he won't lose any cash, therefore there is no extra risk in the short term.

Good god, what's so hard about comprehending that? I swear some of you act like you didn't get past third grade in Math. And yet you're wagering on events that require at least a rudimentary understanding of stats.

I knew what you meant but he who asked the question shouldnt be at a book that only offers one line, I dont play at Bodog but used to years ago and I went and logged in and the only line they have is -14, thats a shame, change books...fast.

[Machine Choice]

would you recommend buying a half a point to bring it down to 13.5 if a book is offering 14?

No. If the book is offering -110 at -14, that's fine. You may push instead of win, but the chance of that happening is less than 4% according to research done on NFL key numbers.

Now if the line was -14.5, that's a different conversation.

[mngambler]

just my opinion but doesn't the o/u seem high at 49? what you guys think about teasing it up? idk maybe i'm overthinking it, I just hate laying 2 td's on any nfl team(s)

[Pivotpoint]

I don't see the half point coming into play here, but only fair to say that it could be the difference between a win and a push. Give the guy a break. Most of us respond quickly while watching a game or two, watching live odds and then throw in Forum. I've seen Machine put a hell of a lot more work into his pics than most. With that said, makes sense to buy the half or a full point, right now. Line is soft at 14 with low juice on Saints. I'm seeing -14 (-105) at a bunch of places. For example, my place has a strange Saints - 14 1/2 (+115). Simple matter to buy a full point and still reduced juice. Saints -13 1/2 (-105)

I don't see this game being close. I keep glancing at the OV 49 1/2 , but worry the Dolts might be lucky to put up 13. 17 tops. Saints should hang mid 30's on hapless Colt defense. I like my odds that Brees bounces back here strong, in front of excited home crowd.

[BernardMadoff]

No. If the book is offering -110 at -14, that's fine. You may push instead of win, but the chance of that happening is less than 4% according to research done on NFL key numbers.

Now if the line was -14.5, that's a different conversation.

I disagree, if one likes N.O. if they can buy a half point they should do it, depending on how much it costs for the half point, wouldnt matter much to me, I dont mind pushes but if I can buy a half point I will.

[GETMONEY407]

Alright Machine thanks for the advice. Im new to this betting shit so its nice knowing those statistics

[ddavidson]

I started at bodog and went to bookmaker. Never looked back.

[laxbrah420]

I was just saying that it's the same in the sense that he won't lose money if New Orleans wins by exactly 14 points. Granted, if the game lands on 14 it's a push for him instead of a win. But at least he won't lose any cash, therefore there is no extra risk in the short term.

Good god, what's so hard about comprehending that? I swear some of you act like you didn't get past third grade in Math. And yet you're wagering on events that require at least a rudimentary understanding of stats.

Actually, it's not hard to comprehend that, but it was you who wrote that it's "basically the same", not me. It's not basically the same and that's why books charge differently for it. A reasonable response would have been, "tonight, I'm confident that they'll win by more than 14 so take it, and the bet is similar given you won't lose. But over time, this strategy will cost you. You have to take wins when you can get them. Further, it's irrational to not take the best odds you can get. You're throwing away money if you don't. I recommend signing up for a different book".

I'm guessing you're not an English scholar though.

[Machine Choice]

if I can buy a half point I will.

The books have no problem charging you for that privillege. If you buy a half-point when the line is -14 at -110, that's a long-term moneymaker for the books. Because even if you win more than you lose, you're paying -120 every time.

[laxbrah420]

The books have no problem charging you for that privillege. If you buy a half-point when the line is -14 at -110, that's a long-term moneymaker for the books. Because even if you win more than you lose, you're paying -120 every time.

This is a ridiculous argument

[Machine Choice]

Actually, it's not hard to comprehend that, but it was you who wrote that it's "basically the same", not me.

Exactly, and since you're the "literary scholar" then you'll understand that the term "basically the same" does not mean "exactly the same."

Now, I'll say again...shut your mouth and go back to your hole.

[BernardMadoff]

The books have no problem charging you for that privillege. If you buy a half-point when the line is -14 at -110, that's a long-term moneymaker for the books. Because even if you win more than you lose, you're paying -120 every time.

Well my book already has -13.5 @ -110, but if the spread was -14 @-110 and for -13.5 it was -120, thats the break even mark for key numbers since 14 happens at 5% and not the 4% you stated, just saying.

[Machine Choice]

Well my book already has -13.5 @ -110, but if the spread was -14 @-110 and for -13.5 it was -120, thats the break even mark for key numbers since 14 happens at 5% and not the 4% you stated, just saying.

We're both wrong. It's 4.4%



3 17.3% Field Goal
7 9.7% Touchdown
10 6.9% Touchdown + Field Goal
4 5.6% Touchdown - Field Goal
1 4.4% Touchdown - 2 Field Goals
6 4.4% 2 Field Goals
14 4.4% 2 Touchdowns
13 4.0% Touchdown + 2 Field Goals