1. #1
    k13
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    Public is 32-42 in the NFL so far this year...

    Whatever that's worth, thought I'd share.

    Lot of talk about squares/public/sharps/whatever so I did some quick numbers.

  2. #2
    Full Time Hobo
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    They cleanup saturday and get raped sunday


  3. #3
    MoneyLineDawg
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    Makes sense, the tough part is figuring out when to ride the public and when to go against it....That is why I don't put too much stock in line movements/ public

    You start second-guessing yourself with all of this info....If you have a lot of knowledge on teams, recent trends, and the leagues themselves just go with what you think will happen ON THE FIELD......Public percentages and line movements are just a tool to help you, not the end-all, be-all

  4. #4
    ttrace35
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    Quote Originally Posted by MoneyLineDawg View Post
    Makes sense, the tough part is figuring out when to ride the public and when to go against it....That is why I don't put too much stock in line movements/ public

    You start second-guessing yourself with all of this info....If you have a lot of knowledge on teams, recent trends, and the leagues themselves just go with what you think will happen ON THE FIELD......Public percentages and line movements are just a tool to help you, not the end-all, be-all

  5. #5
    BernardMadoff
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    Hate hearing the word public, you are the public.

  6. #6
    CHAZ
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    Sharps got raped this weekend according to the line movements.



    "Bears stung the most. We grinded out a decent profit during the day, but then gave pretty much all of it back as everyone was on the Bears. Losing those Sunday night games are a real killer. So much more action is on them then the other games; really makes or breaks your day."
    -David Mason (BetOnline)

  7. #7
    BigDofBA
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    Threads like this make me chuckle.

    You ran "you ran your own numbers"?

    I'm glad everyone here knows which side is sharp. We must have a lot of winners here.....

  8. #8
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by CHAZ View Post
    Sharps got raped this weekend according to the line movements.



    "Bears stung the most. We grinded out a decent profit during the day, but then gave pretty much all of it back as everyone was on the Bears. Losing those Sunday night games are a real killer. So much more action is on them then the other games; really makes or breaks your day."
    -David Mason (BetOnline)
    Well why the heck did they set the line so darn low? -1 or -2 or whatever was nuts. And now the Bears are -1 neutral vs. Tampa. What the hell sense do these lines make? They're trying to say that Minny is better than Tampa. Come on now.

  9. #9
    big0mar
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    Most here do not understand the concept of market efficiency.

  10. #10
    punkbhstl
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    Quote Originally Posted by big0mar View Post
    Most here do not understand the concept of market efficiency.
    google: thespread and see who the public is betting

  11. #11
    big0mar
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    Quote Originally Posted by punkbhstl View Post
    google: thespread and see who the public is betting
    You are just as clueless.

    Who is taking a position against the public?????

  12. #12
    BettingWizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by BernardMadoff View Post
    Hate hearing the word public, you are the public.
    so you're fading yourself then. who cares?

  13. #13
    Ricki Roma
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    where do these stats come from?

  14. #14
    jjgold
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    Hard to actually put a record on public plays
    Its actually almost impossible

  15. #15
    BigDofBA
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Hard to actually put a record on public plays Its actually almost impossible
    This!

    That's why I laugh at threads when people think they know what is sharp and what is not. We are the public!

  16. #16
    BettingWizard
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Hard to actually put a record on public plays
    Its actually almost impossible
    not really, just look at the top bets on a square book like Sportsbook.com. or just ask a local bookie

  17. #17
    d2bets
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    Quote Originally Posted by BettingWizard View Post
    not really, just look at the top bets on a square book like sportsbook.com. or just ask a local bookie
    Yeah, but what qualifies? 32-42 means he's got only selected games. Unless there is some objective and verifiable % way of determining which game is "public enough" then it's too subjective to have any reliability.

    Now if there was an objective qualification like any game with over 60% on one side as determined by sportsbook.com after kickoff, or something like that, then OK. But otherwise, if it's just picking and choosing, then it's not reliable.

  18. #18
    loopydude11
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    32-42 is how many games have been played in the NFL, give or take a game

  19. #19
    TehSharp
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    The house always wins....unless you're me

  20. #20
    k13
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    Maybe I will go into more details later.

    Don't take it too literally as public can be replaced with majority, public perception, etc.

    You really need to see anything to know Packers, Steelers, Texans, etc. will be "public" plays this week for example.

    That does not mean sharps are on the other side as a majority play can still be a sharp depending on many factors.

    These are just some vanilla numbers.

  21. #21
    k13
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    Public plays for this week would be...

    Carolina
    San Diego
    Houston
    Denver
    Oakland
    Steelers
    Dallas
    Saints
    Baltimore

    That does not mean sharps are on the other side or can't be on the public side or whatever you want to think.

  22. #22
    LUNT101
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    To see who the public is on, I use a combination of:

    http://odds.sbrforum.com/#/odds/nfl/...intspread.html
    http://www.betvega.com/consensus/nfl-consensus/
    http://twominutewarning.com/bettracker.htm

    More times than not, these sites contradict each other, so they can only be taken with a grain of salt.

  23. #23
    DJ Dana
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    wow, I don't feel badly now with how I've done for the season. 6 weeks in I'm in the black 4 of those weeks and up just short of a grand.

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