I had an unprecedented seven bets last week - and thankfully went 5-1-1. I just don't see as much value this weekend, so for the time being at least I'm only on the following trio:
49ers at Lions Here I go again, opposing the 49ers. It's cost me money twice already. Still, they remain clearly over-rated on offense AND defense according to my secret-recipe stats, even though the offense finally reached a more-or-less respectable yards-per-play figure after last week's thrashing of Tampa Bay.
However, Detroit have a better offense, have a pressure-happy defense facing a quarterback who has been sacked 14 times (almost one time for every ten drop-backs), are at home on turf to the grass-field 'Niners and have their short week mitigated somewhat by both games being at home. Lions roar. Mystic Limey forsees: San Francisco 13 - 27 Detroit 8 units Lions -4
Bills @ Giants The Giants - coming off a disastreous home defeat - will be all business. The Bills travel off a big - but perhaps slightly fortunate - win over the Philadelphia bad-dream team. Add home advantage and I lean toward the Giants here. Outside of that, it's easy to pick weaknesses in 'Big Blue'; from an unimpressive three wins (Rams, Eagles, Cardinals) through a weak running game to a load of cockups in the passing game.
Still, the Buffalo defense may well permit an improvement on the ground which would be a good foundation for the home team here. Crucially, my over/under-rated indicators point to Buffalo being due to come down a peg or two in multiple areas. Giants get it done. Mystic Limey forsees: Buffalo 16 - 30 New Jersey 8 units Giants -3
Cowboys @ Patriots
Just like the 49ers, the Patriots have been opposed by me twice already this season - and they've used that terrible slight as motivation in covering once and 'pushing' once.
My feeling here is that if Romo doesn't throw pick sixes then the Cowboys' stats say they can hang with anybody. It's a big 'if', so it's just a small bet on Dallas, fresh off their bye week. Mystic Limey hopes: Dallas 27 - 28 New England 3 units Cowboys +6.5
Congrats on last week, that's amazing. Great analysis this week as well, I like all three. What's your reason for staying away from New Orleans at -4? Any input would be appreciated, I'm thinking of laying 2 units on it as well...
Thanks for the input gochiefs. If your Chiefs are the Kansas City Chiefs, I've won on them twice in a row :-D
New Orleans at Tampa Bay is a game I just don't fancy. The Saints on the road in humid Tampa don't appeal to me, especially with the Buccs looking to atone for the worst performance of this entire season by any team, last week. I'll probably pick the Saints in my "picking every game" thread, but I just personally wouldn't touch the game with $$$.
I wouldn't especially argue with you, TheNew. I haven't looked at this game in any depth, 'cause it just instinctively didn't appeal to me. I notice the Saints won by 25 here last season!
SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Week Six - picks and thoughts
Reply With Quote