1. #1
    billysink
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    Dallas @ New England, New Orleans @ Tampa, Cleveland @ Oakland

    New Orleans -4 @ Tampa Bay

    Tampa missing starting tailback LeGarrette Blount will replace him with Earnest Graham. Behind him they have no one with game experience. Backup tight end Luke Stocker who had been assuming most of the fullback duties did not play last week probably will not go again this week. I think the only way Bucs keep this one within a TD is if they can establish the run. Given this information I have to doubt their ability to do this. If the onus to move the ball falls to Josh Freeman I gotta play against him. He has not looked anything like he did last year. Mike Williams has not played well. Seems like Kellen Winslow is the only target Freeman is looking for lately, often forcing throws into double coverage.
    Bucs defence is really beat up as well. Gerald McCoy the starting DT is out with an ankle. He is their run stopper. Middle linebacker Mason Foster is also very doubtful. He has been their best defensive player this year. Quincy Black will likely replace him if he can go himself. He did not play last week with an ankle. CB Aqib Talib is slowed by a knee but will play.
    Tough spot for Tampa back from the ass kicking on the west coast and off to England next week. Some may point out that this is the Saints third road game in a row but I can’t buy that for a dollar. J’ville, Carolina and Tampa are not gonna ring up enough air miles to make that a factor.
    Looks like the Saints will be closer to full strength with starting center Olin Kreutz coming back. SLB Martez Wilson and MLB Jon Vilma look good to go.

    Dallas + 7@ New England

    It all comes down to defence for me in this one. Dallas can match New England on offense, strength of schedule is about even and have a scheduling advantage coming off a bye week.
    Defensive co-ordinator Rob Ryan was able to devise a game plan to stop New England while with Cleveland albeit in a home game. I think the personnel he has to work with in Dallas is far better than what he had with the Browns and again he has had an extra week to prepare. Demarcus Ware could line up anywhere on Sunday.
    Always have to respect the Brady magic and I do believe he will rack some yardage on Sunday. Where I think the Pats will really struggle is on D. They are really going to miss Jerod Mayo this week. Romo has had an extra week to heal the rib injury and both Dez Bryant and Miles Austin are back to full speed in practice.
    Defensively as mentioned the Pats will be missing Jerod Mayo, by far their best defensive player. That is really going to limit their base 3-4 package. Fat Albert and his backup Kyle Love were limited in practice but are expected to play. Starting corner Ras Dowling is a game time decision.
    The most telling observsation I can make on this game is that some of the biggest shops have come down off 7 for this game. Unheard of for a Pats line. 6.5 is widely available if you favour the Pats. Not for me.

    Cleveland @ Oakland -6.5

    What sticks out on first observation for me is the difference in schedule strength that these two teams have played. Cleveland comes in having faced the third easiest schedule (30th) and the Raiders have faced the second toughest. It should be noted that Cleveland is off a bye week and that this will be the Raiders first home game since Al passed.
    Cleveland has lost a couple of real important defenders for this one. Joe Haden their best cover CB has not practiced all week. He has not yet been ruled out but local media reports say that is likely. With the speed of the wideouts for the Raiders that is a significant injury. No way can the Browns stack the box against McFadden without Joe Haden in the lineup. They will definitely need safety help deep. Defensive end/linebacker Marcus Benard (pass rusher) had a motorcycle accident and is out for a while.
    Defensively I expect the Raiders to stack the box against Hillis and Hardesty. That plays to their defensive strength which is inside with Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly. They are going to make Colt McCoy beat them. Now the Raider secondary is a bit beat up and has looked suspect this year. But that has been against the likes of Brad, Fitzpatrick, Sanchez and Schaub. Colt McCoy is not in that calibre as of yet.
    On offensive I am hoping to see Marcel Reese back in his role as starting fullback. He has not practiced this week and is a game time decision. He is a very important piece of the offensive game plan for the Raiders and they did miss him last week. McFadden did not have an explosive game in Houston but that was against a 3/4 package defence. The Browns employ a 4/3 base package.
    The line has moved to -7 at some shops ...another telling move. I will take the -6.5 now as I expect not to see that number on game day at my outs.

    I will have a few more later today or tomorrow after today's practice info is available.

    Good luck lads!!

  2. #2
    Holtgetsback
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    looks good bill.

  3. #3
    billysink
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    San Francisco @ Detroit under 46

    Deap threat Josh Morgan is done for the season for San Fran. Guard Mike Iupati is likely out with a knee. The Niners are going to have to shuffle their line for this one. We all saw the effects of the crowd on Monday past and I expect some of the same in this game. A revamped line having to rely on a silent count will produce some false starts for sure. Will the Niners be as bad as Chicago? I highly doubt that as they have been practicing with simulated noise all week. Iupati’s injury will definitely hurt the run game some. I am also waiting to see if DT Isaac Sopoaga will play this week. The Niners were real successful using him as a fullback against Philly but he did not play last week. Indications are that he will sit again with a staph infection.
    Gore will get some as the Lions still don’t stuff the run the way they should. Adding Nick Fairley to the mix on first and second downs will be an improvement. If you think Alex Smith can rack up yardage at Ford with that noise you probably won’t think much of this play. I will bet against Smith against this D-line and in this venue.
    The Lions struggle historically with the base 3/4 package that the Niners feature. They did beat Dallas’ 3/4 earlier this year but their offensive stats did in no way belie the 34 points they scored. I don’t think Javid Best can establish the run against this defensive format. Again I would like to see Sapoaga but the Niners filled will with Jean Francois last week. I am hoping the Niners blitz enough linebackers to produce two or three sacks here and that Carlos Rogers can neutralize Calvin with some swingback safety help as again I don’t think they will have to play up on Best.
    No preference on a side as I think 4 is tight but will be on the under for sure.

  4. #4
    billysink
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    Week 6 Nite game total Minny @ Chicago over 41

    Minnesota @ Chicago over 41

    The Bears D Line is a mess. Julius Peppers has not yet been declared inactive to my knowledge but will be extremely limited. NT Matt Toeina is out. The Bears have also revamped their safety position for this contest. With this information I think Minny can put up some points tonight. The Bears haven't stopped anyone when they were healthy.

    I think we see a change in game plan from Mike Martz here. Reportedly they have devised a package which will allow Cutler to throw off a limited drop to negate the pass rush of the Vikes. They may even allow him a few plays to move the pocket. Antonio Winfield sits again for the Vikes. That will help Cutler's cause some. I don't think they will be able to establish much of a run game either, no one has this year against the Vikes.

    A home team that cannot kill clock on the ground with a dinged defensive line is a recipe for an over to me. Cutler played a whale of a game in Detroit with all that racket. I think he can have a better showing tonight with a bit of a change in game plan.

    Good luck tonight lads.
    Last edited by billysink; 10-16-11 at 07:07 PM. Reason: change thread title

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