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Week Five - picks and thoughts
A very satisfying 5-1 last week. I lost on the Falcons despite them leading 27-7 in the third quarter, but such is life. An odd week this time out as I like more games than usual but with only one play that really merits a larger bet. Here's the skinny:
Jets @ Patriots
The Patriots defense may not be as bad as it is being painted - the Packers have the next-highest yards-per-play against; when you're winning games you can go into 'prevent' mode - but it doesn't have a lot in common with the Ravens defense that terrorised Mark Sanchez last week. Likewise, the Jets 'D' is a different animal than New England have faced thus far.
This line is just too damn big, especially when the visitors won the last encounter here - in the playoffs no less.
Mystic Limey forsees: New Jersey 24 - 27 New England
9 units Jets +9
Titans @ Steelers
How often do you get to back the Steelers at home, giving up only 3 points? Not often, but that is really irrelevant - you can't be betting teams based on their name and history. What are Pittsburgh doing right NOW is what counts, and the answer is, not a lot.
Still, the Steelers 2-2 record includes three road games out of four, while Mike Munchak's men (I love saying that) face a second straight road trip here. The Titans impressive stats have been racked up, in part, against Jacksonville, Cleveland and Denver. But most importantly in this instance, my A1, eyes-only, classified logarithms have Pittsburgh under-rated and Tennessee over-rated, so PITTSBURGH it is.
Mystic Limey forsees: Tennessee 16 - 24 Pittsburgh
4.5 units Steelers -3
Cardinals @ Vikings
Most weeks I have one bet that feels wrong as soon as I place it, and this is it. However, last week it was Cinci over Buffalo and that turned into a winner so I won't cry just yet.
In a nutshell, I have the Cardinals down as bordering on over-rated, while the Vikings sit 0-4 with losses by just 7, 4, 3 and 5 points. I think they'll force Kolb into some mistakes and carry dome advantage to a first win of the season.
Mystic Limey forsees: Arizona 17 - 24 Minnesota
3 units Vikings -3
Buccanneers @ 49ers
I've been criticising the 49ers all season, and sure enough they are a pathetic, um.... 3-1! However, they are still putting up a feeble offensive yards-per-play ranked 27th in the league and you can't win indefinitely doing that. In fact, San Francisco rank top of my 'over-rated team' statistical indicator.
I'm not wild about Tampa Bay having to make this long trip on the back of a Monday night game, but the Buccs won 21-0 here last season and I'll take a pop at this.
Mystic Limey forsees: Tampa Bay 23 - 13 49ers
4 units Buccaneers +2.5
Bengals @ Jaguars
I don't especially like that Bengals are just an 'okay' team, are away from home and have a rookie QB who could be good or bad on the day. Nor that Jacksonville are at home for the second week running. Most of all I hate that the Jags are down as 'under-rated' on my top-secret stat-indicator, something I rarely bet against. But how can I support the Jags against a good run defense when their passing attack is so poor?
Mystic Limey forsees: Cincinnatti 21 - 16 Jacksonville
3 units Bengals +1.5
Chiefs @ Colts
I envisaged betting against the Colts in every game sans Manning, but their defense has really stepped up and given me pause for thought. However, the Chiefs are heavily under-rated on my index (patent pending) and have been unlucky turnver-wise, recovering a league-low 9% of
fumbles through four weeks. I think Cassell can get rid of the ball quickly in the face of Freeney & Co., and this merits a small bet.
Mystic Limey forsees: Kansas City 23 - 14 Indianapolis
3 units Chiefs +2
Chargers @ Broncos
Can it be as simple as, the better team wins? I hope so. I think the Chargers might finally put it together on offense on Sunday.
Mystic Limey forsees: San Diego 31 - 17 Denver
3 units Chargers -3.5
Enjoy your Sunday!
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Originally Posted by Limey
