[brahmabull117]

I'm talking about games like Kansas City @ Colts, San Fran vs Tampa and Cincinatti vs Jax




these are games that are 100% coin flip in terms of who covers, so why try to land on the right side of the coin instead of just teasing the dog and enjoying your free money?? (all 3 games will be very close probably 95% of the time)




for example, jacksonville has 1 home win in their last 48+ games by more than 8 points and they are starting a rookie QB against a solid defense. That game will be a 3 or 4 point game decided either way so why even sweat it?? In terms of the 49ers/Tampa, I can't even find the last time the 49ers beat a halfway decent team by more than 8 points, so why not just tease tampa and enjoy your free dough??? Tampa's gonna win that game or lose by one possession either way



it boggles my mind how so many people here seem to think to they have a legitimate advantage on these ridiculously evenly matched up games with super sharp lines

[face]

well last week the titans/browns game was a -pk, and titans ended up whipping the browns' ass, ruining the teasers. i think colts luck in keeping these games close will run out and chiefs get a win.

[brahmabull117]

well last week the titans/browns game was a -pk, and titans ended up whipping the browns' ass

only game all week that was like that



Bills Bengals 3 point spread - decided by 3 points
Cowboys lions 2 point spread - decided by 4 points
Vikings Chiefs 3 point spread - decided 5 points
Redskins Rams 4 point spread - decided by 7 points
Giants Cardinals 1 point spread - decided by 4 points



and check out the week before



Seahawks 3 point spread - decided by 3 points
panthers 3 point spread - decided by 4 points
lions 4 point spread - decided by 3 points
Jets 3 point spread - decided by 10 points - this one doesn't count though cause the dog won by 10 so a teaser still wins
browns 1 point spread - decided by 1 point
49 ers 1 point spread - decided by 5 points
saints 3 point spread - decided by 7 points




NFL Lines are supremely sharp, so why not take advantage of that with teasers?

[face]

yea i like teasers too, good stats. do not tease jets this week though, tease NE. gl

[brahmabull117]

yea i like teasers too, good stats. do not tease jets this week though, tease NE. gl

absolutely

[bobbyk1133]

NFL Lines are supremely sharp, so why not take advantage of that with teasers?

TB +8.5 and CIN +8.5 this week

[brahmabull117]

TB +8.5 and CIN +8.5 this week

[brahmabull117]

guys don't tease the eagles game this week



the eagles always have the potential to blow teams out, I think it will be a close game but only about 65-70% chance of a close game



you want games that have about 90% chance of a close game

[kcDdegenerate]

purpose of a spread is to create the coin flip scenario, so basically all games are coin flips....just make sure you bet the best coin flip games

[brahmabull117]

purpose of a spread is to create the coin flip scenario, so basically all games are coin flips....just make sure you bet the best coin flip games

the giants are not a coin flip game


those 2 teams could play a 100 times and the giants would win that game by 10+ points at least 66% of the time


hell look at the seahawks road ATS record in recent years, they haven't even covered at a 30% rate so that 66% is a very conservative guess

[bobbyk1133]

purpose of a spread is to create the coin flip scenario, so basically all games are coin flips....just make sure you bet the best coin flip games

Purpose of the spread is to create a coin flip scenario for the public. Sharps find value in the opening lines every week and get good value on dogs at the end of the week.

[Deol]

why do you post like everything you say is absolute? its annoying, maybe you wouldnt get so much "hate" then. Some people just have good feels/reads on teams regardless if the spread is 8 points or 1.5. I am unfortunately not one of them, and clearly neither are you. Also anyone can find specfic stats to support there pick, obviously there important but definitely not absolute. I personally really like TB this week, so theyre a definite tease, and prolly a small play on ML for me.

[jsmithj88]

why do you post like everything you say is absolute? its annoying, maybe you wouldnt get so much "hate" then. Some people just have good feels/reads on teams regardless if the spread is 8 points or 1.5. I am unfortunately not one of them, and clearly neither are you. Also anyone can find specfic stats to support there pick, obviously there important but definitely not absolute. I personally really like TB this week, so theyre a definite tease, and prolly a small play on ML for me.

[GunShard]

Coin flip games have high value on either side.

With gambling it's Value vs Winning.

[Guinser]

all 3 very close 95%..lol

[Daveyboy]

well last week the titans/browns game was a -pk, and titans ended up whipping the browns' ass, ruining the teasers. i think colts luck in keeping these games close will run out and chiefs get a win.

Did people actually pick the Browns last week?!? Haha. 2.16 for Titans I remember getting

[shooms79]

LOL. You better be careful son, your ego will cost you and all your season will be a wash. Think about NFL is the parity, dont overlook SF, they SHOULD be 4-0 if not for romo crazy come back. Harbaugh brothers are pretty sick coaches. Also look at atl last week, they gave up and didnt cover at sea. Did Cinn beat buff? And didn't u get tapped on NE when Buff beat them? There are a lot of intangibles in NFL that you have to look at. Not lecturing, just keeping your ego in check...what the NFL givith, it most certainly take away. Just be careful...MM is key

[suicidekings]

Why Do People Here Bet On Coin Flip Games???

Value is in the eye of the beholder... Two skilled handicappers can look at the same game and decide that the opposite sides are solid plays, and each can have solid reasoning behind the pick. Obviously one will be right and one will be wrong, but this is the NFL, where the difference between the best and the worst teams is far less extreme than in any other pro sport.

If you take away all the games in which either team could win the game, then you're left laying -500 or more on MLs, and if you limit yourself to "locks", then its pretty safe to say that your skill as a handicapper is not something the books should ever be afraid of.

[Ricki Roma]

I'm talking about games like Kansas City @ Colts, San Fran vs Tampa and Cincinatti vs Jax




these are games that are 100% coin flip in terms of who covers, so why try to land on the right side of the coin instead of just teasing the dog and enjoying your free money?? (all 3 games will be very close probably 95% of the time)




for example, jacksonville has 1 home win in their last 48+ games by more than 8 points and they are starting a rookie QB against a solid defense. That game will be a 3 or 4 point game decided either way so why even sweat it?? In terms of the 49ers/Tampa, I can't even find the last time the 49ers beat a halfway decent team by more than 8 points, so why not just tease tampa and enjoy your free dough??? Tampa's gonna win that game or lose by one possession either way



it boggles my mind how so many people here seem to think to they have a legitimate advantage on these ridiculously evenly matched up games with super sharp lines

BRAHMA WE ALL have our opinons on wats coin flip and whats not its simply a matter of opinion, stop makin threads like these it will save you from getting roasted

[Hilljacademics]

I thought CIN +3 (+100) early had value last week, as well as KC +2. It's a good point, but there is value in some pickk to +/-3 games.

[ramones951]

Aren't they all basically coinflips? Oh wait I forgot about all those "locks" on the board

[YoungGunKid]

edit

[YoungGunKid]

Cincinatti Vs. Jax is not a coin flip game...you have Cincy with the #1 rated overall d, solid offensive players in Benson,Gresham,and A.J. Green with a solid o-line against a Jags team that is reeling and only has 1 consistent offensive weapon in MJD and a rookie QB that up to this point has been atrocious at converting 3rd downs,with a mediocre team defense at best.

Not too mention its most likely going to rain during this game and typically that gives the team with the better defense a steeper advantage (Cincinatti).

Im not sure how you consider that a coin flip

[Wrecked]

When you're good at picking games, they're not considered "coin-flip" games.