1. #1
    Vegasjack2
    Vegasjack2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-20-11
    Posts: 36

    I think INDIANAPOLIS covers easily...and may win SU

    Normally this game would be a massive primetime game, instead we get a 1-1 Steelers team vs. a winless Indianapolis team that is showing no signs of life thus far. Pittsburgh opened as a double digit favorite for the second straight week in a row. They have got A TON of love from bettors where I have been told that 9 of every 10 bets is on Pittsburgh in primetime. Despite that fact, the line has moved down a half point in favor of the Colts. This game sits at 10.5 across the offshore board and can be found as low as 10 at some places on the strip. It seems clear to everyone that Pittsburgh rolls in this game handily. The Steelers sit near the top of every analyst, columnist and Oddsmaker power rankings. On the flip side, Indianapolis is interchangeable with Kansas City for worst in the league. I think everyone can make an argument for Pittsburgh winning and covering, but I may be one of the few who can make the argument for Indianapolis covering.
    To me, this is a major letdown and look ahead game for the Steelers. I think 10.5 points is far to many to get the cover. Lets start off by assessing this number and analyzing the potential game flow. In order for Pittsburgh to cover 10.5 points they are going to have to be up, and be up big. People look at this extra hook and think of Pittsburgh going from 7 to 10, and getting the cover. When I look at this line, I look at Pittsburgh going from 17 to 10. I think these big numbers are often looked at incorrectly in terms of predicting the flow of the game. All signs point to Pittsburgh running away with this game. I am not going to try and change that. I am not going to analyze into something that is almost destined to happen. What I can do is analyze how the game is going to play out. Looking at the total of 38.5, the most likely score in relation to the spread is 24-14. Is that a possible outcome? I believe so. Continuing on from this base score, is there something that tells me Pittsburgh is capable of scoring more then 24? We know that Pittsburgh is not the type of team to light up the score board. Pittsburgh gets a lead and keeps the ball on the ground and works the clock. In comparison to the league average of 18.4 points scored per game, the Steelers are already projected to have a strong offensive game. In their first game this year Pittsburgh put up 7 against the Ravens on the road and then 24 at home vs. Seattle. Many people are looking at this game similar to that week two game. Remember how dominant the Steelers looked? They did that only scoring what I am projecting them to here today. I do not agree with people comparing Indianapolis to Seattle. The Seahawks had to go into Heinz Field for a game against the Steelers who were EXTREMELY fired up coming off an embarrassing loss. Indianapolis is at home tonight, on Sunday Night. This is a different situation entirely. It also has a different emotional factor for the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes into this game relieving the stress of that week one loss. The entire city was on pins and needles ready to strike for the throat after witnessing that week one demolition. The Steelers came out and put the critics on hold with the shutout last weekend. Phew, now where do they go? Into woeful Indianapolis who went from being a rival and perennial playoff competition to worst in the NFL. I think this game gets looked over by many players on the Steelers especially with the road trip to 3-0 Houston next Sunday. If Pittsburgh gets through Houston next week they most likely go into Foxboro on the last day of October 6-1. Next week is going to be the only time for the next 35 days that the Steelers are not listed as double digit favorites, and potentially underdogs. I just can’t see Pittsburgh running this score up high enough to stay clear of the Colts. Hanging 24 and 28 on the scoreboard is a tough task for this Steelers team regardless of the competition. Last years regular season with a very similar team the Steelers only got to the four touchdown mark twice, at home to Oakland and in Week 17 against Cleveland. Tonight in Primetime (where they have an extremely poor ATS history) in the dome against the Colts, I do not see this team getting higher then 24 points. I fully feel that they have to get at least 28 to have a shot at covering this game.
    Indianapolis on the other hand, does not have to be in this game start to finish to get the cover. In fact, they can be getting completely tossed around and still have a very good shot at the cover. I feel the magic number for the Colts is 14. Once the Colts reach or exceed two touchdowns, the cover is in sure hands. Indianapolis was set up for a BEATING in week one. Houston had been waiting to win that game for three years and the entire team, city and franchise was crushed with the loss of their leader Peyton Manning. To me that week was a completely downer and I take little stock into the result. Last week the Colts showed progress of moving forward. What we have to remember and I think so many people forget is that this is still the same Colts team. They may be without Manning but the surrounding cast is still the same. This is still a middle of the line scoring defense that is able to keep teams from hanging huge numbers on the board. This is a team with an extremely strong pass rush. Nothing has changed on defense. We have seen the way this defensive unit can perform. I think that this unit is more then capable of holding their team in the game tonight. Offensively this unit is still stacked up with weapons. Now I admit that they looked terrible in week one, and below average in week two. As time went on in both of those games, they got better and better and better. The reason for this is simple. Kerry Collins. Remember, he came out of retirement in week one. He was rusty as could be with only 13 days of practice under his belt before kick off. He showed signs in the latter stages of last weeks game against Cleveland of his usual self. He led a Tennessee team to their best season in franchise history just a few years ago. Collins is very capable of commanding this offense. After an 0-2 start all expectations are off of his shoulders. There is no longer pressure for him to perform. The Colts are done, finished. No one is expecting anything from him or the team. From listening and watching press conferences all week, leaders on either side of the ball showed promise and were saying all the right things to believe me that these guys are still focused and in this. I am fully convinced that tonight in Primetime at home the Colts come out against Pittsburgh and put up 17-21 points. Their team total is listed at a flat 14. I think this is too low. I think that we are all going to see a couple new formations from the Colts to shake things up. They need a spark to get this offense burning, and I would look no further then 87 on the side line or reliable Dallas Clark to get this thing moving. I look for Wayne and Clark to have very strong performances tonight. Assuming that Pittsburgh gets to their magic number of 24 tonight, Indianapolis needs 14 to get the cover. There is a good chance that Indianapolis is going to be playing from behind late in the game. This sets up extremely well for the backdoor which I will have in my pocket all game long. For Pittsburgh to be clear of the back door, they need at least an 18 point lead to avoid it. This game is going to have to be extremely out of hand and far off my predictions to get there.
    I have this game playing out like this. Indianapolis strikes first. Someway or another the Colts are going to find a way to have an early lead of seven. Pittsburgh is going to answer and lean on the Colts going into the half. Give me 14-10 Pittsburgh at halftime. In the second half Pittsburgh will score early and put this into a 21-10 type of game going into the fourth. Indianapolis is going to get a stop and force a field goal early in the quarter, 24-10 Pittsburgh. Indianapolis will get across their number of 14 with a td and make it a seven point game with a couple minutes left. Pittsburgh will run clock as usual and end up punting back to Indianapolis late in the quarter leaving the Colts with a drive to tie. This is going to be one of those games that we see all to many where it flirts around the number for a majority of the second half and ends up quickly going to the underdog. There are so many people on the Steelers and there are going to be so many people with losing tickets tonight after feeling good about their bet all night. I may be the first to say it, but there may be a number of Steelers moneyline backers out there claiming a bad beat as well.
    Indianapolis Colts +10.5
    Small play on Indianapolis +430 ML

  2. #2
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,878
    Betpoints: 28769

    steelers win going away

  3. #3
    Ice House
    Ice House's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 07-21-10
    Posts: 4,060

    Quote Originally Posted by 5mike5 View Post
    steelers win going away


    hope your right buddy

  4. #4
    loopydude11
    meh
    loopydude11's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-23-09
    Posts: 1,702
    Betpoints: 339

    "why would we ever pick the panthers!?!?!?!?!"

    Steelers are an even better play now

  5. #5
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,878
    Betpoints: 28769

    4 units on pitt -9.5 at -122

  6. #6
    spippen
    spippen's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-17-09
    Posts: 3,874
    Betpoints: 10669

    Kerry Collins is complete GARBAGE.

  7. #7
    High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR's 7 figure Contractor
    High3rEl3m3nt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 8,004
    Betpoints: 4134

    Ummm..."letdown" and "look ahead" game? You realize this is the Steelers and not some college football team. The Steelers have been there and done that in nearly every situation possible. I don't think this team takes anything for granted...especially as this roster is full of seasoned vets. In fact, I see the steelers playing with no mercy... as there's no way they are going to let themselves get embarrassed tonight on a nationally televised game. Poor colts.

  8. #8
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,878
    Betpoints: 28769

    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Ummm..."letdown" and "look ahead" game? You realize this is the Steelers and not some college football team. The Steelers have been there and done that in nearly every situation possible. I don't think this team takes anything for granted...especially as this roster is full of seasoned vets. In fact, I see the steelers playing with no mercy... as there's no way they are going to let themselves get embarrassed tonight on a nationally televised game. Poor colts.

    exactly

  9. #9
    Vegasjack2
    Vegasjack2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-20-11
    Posts: 36

    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    Ummm..."letdown" and "look ahead" game? You realize this is the Steelers and not some college football team. The Steelers have been there and done that in nearly every situation possible. I don't think this team takes anything for granted...especially as this roster is full of seasoned vets. In fact, I see the steelers playing with no mercy... as there's no way they are going to let themselves get embarrassed tonight on a nationally televised game. Poor colts.
    They wont be embarrassed, even if they do go all out, I still dont see them scoring enough to stay clear of this number.

  10. #10
    sweethook
    sweethook's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 11-21-07
    Posts: 12,656
    Betpoints: 10260

    seems right , gl man

  11. #11
    DroppinDimes
    FUBAR
    DroppinDimes's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-19-10
    Posts: 157
    Betpoints: 1206

    I heard Curtis Painter is starting. He is worse than Collins.

  12. #12
    High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR's 7 figure Contractor
    High3rEl3m3nt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 8,004
    Betpoints: 4134

    I think the total offers some value...don't see a side that I like. I know a lot of people are thinking under, but I think this game goes over. Might bet it light.

  13. #13
    815Sox
    815Sox's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-13-10
    Posts: 1,078
    Betpoints: 90

    I will be watching Boardwalk Empire, this is going to be a boring game. I don't really have a feeling one way or the other on the outcome.

  14. #14
    KiDBaZkiT
    September 2021 POTM
    KiDBaZkiT's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-20-09
    Posts: 14,962
    Betpoints: 1291

    VegasJ dont even waste time posting threads like this in here, your just going to get a bunch of people who dont know anything about sports trashing you cause they are offended you dare have a different play than there shitty dd spread. If you think these guys are talking now, wait if Pitt covers, they will be lighting up this thread talking all kinda shit cause they are so unused to winning. Never been there or ever done that, and they show it. I got Indy +10.5

  15. #15
    AdaBarber
    Guess who's back......
    AdaBarber's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-05-08
    Posts: 4,424
    Betpoints: 137

    Everyone is on the Steelers just like they were on the Chargers. I am taking the points.

    Colts +11.5

  16. #16
    setholdsup
    setholdsup's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-11
    Posts: 135
    Betpoints: 354

    Indy +12 on Bodog

  17. #17
    raidersfan
    raidersfan's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-13-07
    Posts: 1,647
    Betpoints: 19

    colts plus the points at home is the play tonight

  18. #18
    High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR's 7 figure Contractor
    High3rEl3m3nt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 8,004
    Betpoints: 4134

    Quote Originally Posted by KiDBaZkiT View Post
    VegasJ dont even waste time posting threads like this in here, your just going to get a bunch of people who dont know anything about sports trashing you cause they are offended you dare have a different play than there shitty dd spread. If you think these guys are talking now, wait if Pitt covers, they will be lighting up this thread talking all kinda shit cause they are so unused to winning. Never been there or ever done that, and they show it. I got Indy +10.5
    Don't get me wrong, by post was based on the part that argued for a little on the Colts' money line. I don't play DD spreads in the NFL...I think some guys were probably responding to the reasoning, which was that the Steelers are in a letdown, look ahead situation. I think there are plenty of ways that you can argue a side, but using these capping concepts to argue against the steelers seems a little off the mark. We'll see what happens...I think over is the play tonight.

  19. #19
    adamo1018
    adamo1018's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-16-11
    Posts: 451
    Betpoints: 248

    Quote Originally Posted by DroppinDimes View Post
    I heard Curtis Painter is starting. He is worse than Collins.
    I just peed a little when I read that.

  20. #20
    HighFive
    HighFive's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 02-01-10
    Posts: 377
    Betpoints: 168

    hahahahahaha

  21. #21
    PAULYPOKER
    I slipped Tricky Dick a hit of LSD!
    PAULYPOKER's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 12-06-08
    Posts: 36,585

    Vegasjack2 I think INDIANAPOLIS covers easily...and may win SU
    I like the Steelers but so does the world which means the game will most likely be very entertaining if you know what I mean.........

  22. #22
    setholdsup
    setholdsup's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 08-31-11
    Posts: 135
    Betpoints: 354

    I'm interested in this:

    Colts:
    1st Half
    7
    (-105)o
    (-125)u


    Anyone think Colts are good for a TD in the first half? Crazy turnover isn't out of the question.

  23. #23
    Numenor80
    Numenor80's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-26-09
    Posts: 360
    Betpoints: 318

    Steelers easily clear the 12. They win by 20 tonight!! 33-13 Pit

  24. #24
    Louisvillekid1
    LAMAR MVP!
    Louisvillekid1's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-17-07
    Posts: 52,044
    Betpoints: 553

    paragraphs please...

  25. #25
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,878
    Betpoints: 28769

    -.95 at -122 is a GIFT.....collins and paiNter---LMAO

  26. #26
    Walulu
    Walulu's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 03-20-10
    Posts: 1,123
    Betpoints: 3239

    Colts could very well be play but I don't trust them against Steel town which needs to win to keep up with Balty. Play over as the Steelers put it on them tonight...

  27. #27
    5mike5
    NA$CAR PSYCHIC
    5mike5's Avatar SBR PRO
    Join Date: 09-21-11
    Posts: 50,878
    Betpoints: 28769

    -9.5

  28. #28
    Vegasjack2
    Vegasjack2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-20-11
    Posts: 36

    Need one more score in my mind to secure a cover.

  29. #29
    High3rEl3m3nt
    SBR's 7 figure Contractor
    High3rEl3m3nt's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-28-10
    Posts: 8,004
    Betpoints: 4134

    got lucky the over hit...I'm not a hater and I hope that your money line plays hits too! Nice call!

  30. #30
    Vegasjack2
    Vegasjack2's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-20-11
    Posts: 36

    Quote Originally Posted by High3rEl3m3nt View Post
    got lucky the over hit...I'm not a hater and I hope that your money line plays hits too! Nice call!
    Nice hit. Nice to finish the sunday off on a winning note.

  31. #31
    Blazermaniac
    Blazermaniac's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-30-08
    Posts: 556
    Betpoints: 1027

    Man...that was a long write up VegasJack. Didn't finish it but hitted it right on the head.

    This game was purposely played close to the vest to keep within the number. Surprised that the over hit cause everything done in the 3rd and half way through the 4th was to keep it under. Lots of runs and short horziontal passes. That missed fg hitting the left upright was right on by the kicker. These fckers are truly professionals.

    Pittsburg could do anything they wanted to. They have no problem going down field. But they chose not to. All good play calling by the OC...I am sure he had some influences,

    Was a great exciting game though.

Top