Normally this game would be a massive primetime game, instead we get a 1-1 Steelers team vs. a winless Indianapolis team that is showing no signs of life thus far. Pittsburgh opened as a double digit favorite for the second straight week in a row. They have got A TON of love from bettors where I have been told that 9 of every 10 bets is on Pittsburgh in primetime. Despite that fact, the line has moved down a half point in favor of the Colts. This game sits at 10.5 across the offshore board and can be found as low as 10 at some places on the strip. It seems clear to everyone that Pittsburgh rolls in this game handily. The Steelers sit near the top of every analyst, columnist and Oddsmaker power rankings. On the flip side, Indianapolis is interchangeable with Kansas City for worst in the league. I think everyone can make an argument for Pittsburgh winning and covering, but I may be one of the few who can make the argument for Indianapolis covering.
To me, this is a major letdown and look ahead game for the Steelers. I think 10.5 points is far to many to get the cover. Lets start off by assessing this number and analyzing the potential game flow. In order for Pittsburgh to cover 10.5 points they are going to have to be up, and be up big. People look at this extra hook and think of Pittsburgh going from 7 to 10, and getting the cover. When I look at this line, I look at Pittsburgh going from 17 to 10. I think these big numbers are often looked at incorrectly in terms of predicting the flow of the game. All signs point to Pittsburgh running away with this game. I am not going to try and change that. I am not going to analyze into something that is almost destined to happen. What I can do is analyze how the game is going to play out. Looking at the total of 38.5, the most likely score in relation to the spread is 24-14. Is that a possible outcome? I believe so. Continuing on from this base score, is there something that tells me Pittsburgh is capable of scoring more then 24? We know that Pittsburgh is not the type of team to light up the score board. Pittsburgh gets a lead and keeps the ball on the ground and works the clock. In comparison to the league average of 18.4 points scored per game, the Steelers are already projected to have a strong offensive game. In their first game this year Pittsburgh put up 7 against the Ravens on the road and then 24 at home vs. Seattle. Many people are looking at this game similar to that week two game. Remember how dominant the Steelers looked? They did that only scoring what I am projecting them to here today. I do not agree with people comparing Indianapolis to Seattle. The Seahawks had to go into Heinz Field for a game against the Steelers who were EXTREMELY fired up coming off an embarrassing loss. Indianapolis is at home tonight, on Sunday Night. This is a different situation entirely. It also has a different emotional factor for the Steelers. Pittsburgh comes into this game relieving the stress of that week one loss. The entire city was on pins and needles ready to strike for the throat after witnessing that week one demolition. The Steelers came out and put the critics on hold with the shutout last weekend. Phew, now where do they go? Into woeful Indianapolis who went from being a rival and perennial playoff competition to worst in the NFL. I think this game gets looked over by many players on the Steelers especially with the road trip to 3-0 Houston next Sunday. If Pittsburgh gets through Houston next week they most likely go into Foxboro on the last day of October 6-1. Next week is going to be the only time for the next 35 days that the Steelers are not listed as double digit favorites, and potentially underdogs. I just can’t see Pittsburgh running this score up high enough to stay clear of the Colts. Hanging 24 and 28 on the scoreboard is a tough task for this Steelers team regardless of the competition. Last years regular season with a very similar team the Steelers only got to the four touchdown mark twice, at home to Oakland and in Week 17 against Cleveland. Tonight in Primetime (where they have an extremely poor ATS history) in the dome against the Colts, I do not see this team getting higher then 24 points. I fully feel that they have to get at least 28 to have a shot at covering this game.
Indianapolis on the other hand, does not have to be in this game start to finish to get the cover. In fact, they can be getting completely tossed around and still have a very good shot at the cover. I feel the magic number for the Colts is 14. Once the Colts reach or exceed two touchdowns, the cover is in sure hands. Indianapolis was set up for a BEATING in week one. Houston had been waiting to win that game for three years and the entire team, city and franchise was crushed with the loss of their leader Peyton Manning. To me that week was a completely downer and I take little stock into the result. Last week the Colts showed progress of moving forward. What we have to remember and I think so many people forget is that this is still the same Colts team. They may be without Manning but the surrounding cast is still the same. This is still a middle of the line scoring defense that is able to keep teams from hanging huge numbers on the board. This is a team with an extremely strong pass rush. Nothing has changed on defense. We have seen the way this defensive unit can perform. I think that this unit is more then capable of holding their team in the game tonight. Offensively this unit is still stacked up with weapons. Now I admit that they looked terrible in week one, and below average in week two. As time went on in both of those games, they got better and better and better. The reason for this is simple. Kerry Collins. Remember, he came out of retirement in week one. He was rusty as could be with only 13 days of practice under his belt before kick off. He showed signs in the latter stages of last weeks game against Cleveland of his usual self. He led a Tennessee team to their best season in franchise history just a few years ago. Collins is very capable of commanding this offense. After an 0-2 start all expectations are off of his shoulders. There is no longer pressure for him to perform. The Colts are done, finished. No one is expecting anything from him or the team. From listening and watching press conferences all week, leaders on either side of the ball showed promise and were saying all the right things to believe me that these guys are still focused and in this. I am fully convinced that tonight in Primetime at home the Colts come out against Pittsburgh and put up 17-21 points. Their team total is listed at a flat 14. I think this is too low. I think that we are all going to see a couple new formations from the Colts to shake things up. They need a spark to get this offense burning, and I would look no further then 87 on the side line or reliable Dallas Clark to get this thing moving. I look for Wayne and Clark to have very strong performances tonight. Assuming that Pittsburgh gets to their magic number of 24 tonight, Indianapolis needs 14 to get the cover. There is a good chance that Indianapolis is going to be playing from behind late in the game. This sets up extremely well for the backdoor which I will have in my pocket all game long. For Pittsburgh to be clear of the back door, they need at least an 18 point lead to avoid it. This game is going to have to be extremely out of hand and far off my predictions to get there.
I have this game playing out like this. Indianapolis strikes first. Someway or another the Colts are going to find a way to have an early lead of seven. Pittsburgh is going to answer and lean on the Colts going into the half. Give me 14-10 Pittsburgh at halftime. In the second half Pittsburgh will score early and put this into a 21-10 type of game going into the fourth. Indianapolis is going to get a stop and force a field goal early in the quarter, 24-10 Pittsburgh. Indianapolis will get across their number of 14 with a td and make it a seven point game with a couple minutes left. Pittsburgh will run clock as usual and end up punting back to Indianapolis late in the quarter leaving the Colts with a drive to tie. This is going to be one of those games that we see all to many where it flirts around the number for a majority of the second half and ends up quickly going to the underdog. There are so many people on the Steelers and there are going to be so many people with losing tickets tonight after feeling good about their bet all night. I may be the first to say it, but there may be a number of Steelers moneyline backers out there claiming a bad beat as well.
Indianapolis Colts +10.5
Small play on Indianapolis +430 ML