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DIRTYDOGs NFL Week 3 Notes and Play Selection with analysis...Good Luck!!
Hello my friends..
Interesting docket of games we have on this weeks NFL slate, in my notes last week I cautioned about taking the Washington Redskins over Arizona because the line looked wayyyy too easy. As it turned out Washington ended up winning the contest by a single point (22-21), however, it was Arizona backers that cashed at the window.
This week there is another similar game with regard to simply looking way too easy, San Francisco is visiting the Cincy Bungles and is only receiving +1.5 points...why? The Niners reside in the weakest division in the NFL, as a combined whole that division is a shoddy 2-6 straight up and 3-4-1 ATS after the first two weeks of the season.
San Fran is making their first road foray of the season and goodness knows they suck on the road as evidenced by losing 64 of their last 80 road tilts in straight up fashion including a mark of 1-4 straight up and ATS in their last five road ventures, as a side note the Niners only win and/or cover in their last five road tries was at....you got it, another weak NFC West team (Arizona). So why arent the Cincy Bungles laying more points?
Seems like everyone is banging the Buffalo Bills hard, so hard in fact that the initial line of New England -9 has since dropped to New England -7, oddly enough current betting trends show that 70% of all side wagers on this contest have been on New England...yet the line falls backwards two whole points. Things that make you go hmmmmmm!!
There has been some funny line movement in the New Orleans-Houston game as well with regard to the number opening with home town New Orleans laying -5.5 with 76% of all side wagers coming in on them, yet the line dropped backwards to New Orleans -4. Thats a lot of sharp money on the Texans, yeah the Texans have looked good thus far in wins over Indy (34-7) and over Miami (23-13), but lets be for real here...
...the Colts were without Peyton Manning and Miami was still reeling off their 24-38 week one loss to New England. The Saints can match up blow for blow offensively with Houston, the Saints have the better defense and the game is being played in New Orleans...must be the possibility of the back door cover that has people scrambling to Houstons side.
I rode Tennessee for the first two weeks of the season, depending on how you wanna grade it out Tenny either pushed or lost by a ½ point in week one versus Jacksonville (I graded it out as a loss). I didnt get off the TiTans and played them again last week against Baltimore and was rewarded with a nice 3***Play Selection winner, in my weekly recap I stated that we wouldnt be able to get much value on the TiTans again for a few weeks down the line...and boy was I right!
This week the TiTans are playing at home again and hosting Denver, the line opened with home town Tennessee installed as a -4.5 point favorite, that number was immediately bet up to Tenny -6 and actually went to -7 before come buy back started to take place. I really like the TiTans in this contest and truly believe we will finally get to see a break out game from RB Chris Johnson which will compliment the play of QB Matt Hasslebeck, however, for values sake I will not bet them at this inflated price.
I am currently taking a good long look at the Monday night game which has Washington visiting the Dallas Cowpokes, the game is currently listed as off line at most sportsbooks due to the uncertain status of poke QB Tony Romo who is nursing a sore rib and has a slightly punctured lung, if Romo plays how many good hits doya think he can take before having to leave the game? I did see that 5 dimes has the game listed as Dallas -4.
Take care and be well
Jim
SEATTLE +3.5 over Arizona
Sunday 9/25/11 4:15 pm est
3***Play Selection
This is another one of those perception games as Seattle was shut out 0-24 and beaten badly last week at Pittsburgh and that was on the heels of losing 17-33 at San Francisco in week one, that leaves Seattle with an overall mark of 0-2 straight up and ATS entering this contest. On the flip side of things, we see that Arizona brings a record of 1-1 straight up and 2-0 ATS into this tilt with them. I seriously doubt if many were on the Cards last week in their trip to Washington, now after getting the cover in a 21-22 loss, suddenly the world loves Arizona this week as evidenced by current betting trends revealing that 74% of all side wagers in this contest have come in on Arizona.
In truth, Arizona was seriously out played last week in Washington and was damn lucky not to record a blow out loss as evidenced by the fact that Washington out yarded them 455 to 324 including a mega 172 rush yards on 35 tries for a phenomenal 4.91 yards per tote, the Skins also out first-downed the Cards 28 to 16 and won the TOP battle by a whopping 38:30 to 21:30 difference.
Arizona has the clear advantage in the QB department of this contest with Kevin Kolb over Tarvaris Jackson, however, I think that advantage could be somewhat negated by Tarvaris Jackson getting to face a shoddy Card defense this week instead of who Seattle faced the past two weeks...a Niner defense that has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in their past 25 games and last years number one ranked rush defense (Pittsburgh).
In week one the Cards allowed a rookie QB (Cam Newton) to visit Glendale Arizona and throw for a mega 403 passing yards, in week two the Cardinal defense allowed the Skins to run wild for 172 yards. If there was ever a team defense to take out your frustrations on...this Cardinal defense is it. Keep in mind that while Arizona QB Kevin Kolb is not a rookie, he is a first year starter and he will be under center trying to run his offense in what is commonly known as the loudest stadium in the NFL.
KEY STATS:
Seattle has won their past four straight home games against divisional rivals in straight up fashion (4-0 ATS) and are 9-3 straight up and ATS in their last 12 at home against fellow NFC West teams. Meanwhile, Arizona is 5-7 straight up and 4-8 ATS in their last 12 versus divisional opponents and 8-7 straight up and 5-10 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite.
Take care and be well
Jim
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Originally Posted by Skeletor42
