[Limey]

Crap week last week, forcing bets where I didn't really see any. More optimistic this weekend, so here goes:

Dolphins @ Browns
About the only thing the Browns have done really well in a shock defeat at home to Cincinnati and a less-than-convincing win at hapless Indy is return kicks. They've posted just 4.5 yards per offensive play.

Miami, of course, are 0-2 from two home games. But New England and Houston present tougher problems than Cleveland. Actually, playing at home seems to give Sparano's Dolphins tougher problems than road games.

The 'Phins have last year's Browns OC Brian Daboll running their offense which gives them a nice inside track on Colt McCoy, but equally the Browns should have some insight into Daboll's offense. I imagine this being a low-scoring affair, won by what I believe to be the better team - the Florida outfit.
Mystic Limey forsees: Miami 22 - 16 Cleveland
5 units Dolphins +2.5, 4 units UNDER 41


49ers @ Bengals
The season hasn't started terribly well for San Francisco. A new head coach under fire for an odd decision last Sunday, a quarterback (that nobody really believes in) trying to learn another new offense. 2.8 yards per rush through two games and a pitiful 4.4 yards per offensive play overall. They have a win under their belts largely thanks to Ted Ginn taking two returns to the end-zone.

I can't see such an outfit achieving a lot in an early start as they head East, against a decent Bengals defense. Home win.
Mystic Limey forsees: San Francisco 13 - 24 Cincinnatti
9 units Bengals ML at odds of 5/7


Texans @ Saints
I won't go into too much detail here (it's getting late), but I use a statistical indicator for teams who are likely over or under-rated. At present I have the Saints a bit under-rated and the Texans a bit over-rated, so it's hard for me not to play the home/dome team here.
Mystic Limey forsees: Houston 19 - 31 New Orleans
5 units Saints -4


Falcons @ Buccaneers
Matt Ryan, Josh Freeman. Who posted the better passer-rating last season? Freeman, obviously. But that's just trivia. I don't think there's a lot between these teams (Atlanta won last year's meetings by six point and four points), and I fancy that Tampa Bay - the league's youngest squad - are on the up and can finally put one over their divisional rivals here.
Mystic Limey forsees: Atlanta 20 - 29 Tampa Bay
4 units Buccaneers -1.5

Enjoy your NFL weekend

[Limey]

4-1, very happy with that. I screwed up on the Bengals pick, with hindsight. The 49ers were just as pitiful on offense as I expected (3.5 yards per offensive play!) and in fact I even nailed their points total - but I didn't pay any attention to the 'Niners defense, or the possibility of a young QB like Dalton having his first bad game.