[Vegasjack2]

Week one I felt strongly about Buffalo +5.5 against KC. Last week I felt equally as strong with Detroit -9 against KC. This week I am straying from my predictions of KC having an extreme down year and moving to a team I am absolutely drooling to bet against. I think there is a very large betting opportunity here I am taking full advantage of it. I know I am going against ALOT of people here.

Kansas City, Indianapolis, Miami, St. Louis, Minnesota, Seattle.
Is anyone talking positively about any of these teams? Have you heard one good thing ANYWHERE about any of these teams? All I have heard is how, Indianapolis is a 4 win team without Manning, Kansas City is the worst team in the league, loaded with injuries and lacking talent. Miami is a flawed system with a useless quarterback. St. Louis is St. Louis. Minnesota chokes late and is nothing but trouble on offense. Seattle is the worst team in the NFC West, which subsequently is the worst division in football and cant score a single point.
BURY THEM, SEASON IS OVER.
Yet, when it comes to CAROLINA who HAS THE SAME RECORD AS THESE SIX TEAMS, all of the sudden were talking about one of the most exciting and best teams in the NFL. Cam Newton is one of the best quarterbacks in the league and is a shoe in to break all sorts of records, and hell, if teams take away the pass well he is going to run for 150 yards and break records with his feet.
WHAT!?
Just a few weeks ago everyone was burying Cam Newton saying he could never play at an NFL level. Now, he goes out and has two big passing weeks and all of the sudden he is the biggest news in the NFL. Did nobody notice that he has more INT's then he does TD's? Did nobody notice that every single one of his passes has been to either a safety valve tight end/running back or a safe sideline route to Smith. Did nobody notice that every time those routes were taken away he was AT BEST a very below average quarterback. I can remember one series in particular against Green Bay where he had Smith in coverage and his two safety valves taken away on three straight plays. He went incomplete, incomplete and interception. Andy Dalton in Cincinnati has thrown for the same number of touchdowns as Newton through two weeks, with ZERO interceptions. Both of Dalton's games have been on the road in Cleveland and in Denver. There are eleven quarterbacks with a better passer rating then Newton through two weeks of the season. Hell, that does not matter because Newton is saying all the right things in press conferences and really believes that he can win and succeed at the pro level. ESPN, NFL Network, CBS, name a network, they have been absolutely POUNDING this kid into everyone watching. The hype meter on Newton right now is OFF THE CHARTS. More people are talking about Newton over Tom Brady. What kind of world are we living in? This is the only thing that any of us are hearing about, and apparently all anyone is betting on.
Now, I do not need Covers or Vegas Insider or any "claimed" consensus website to tell me how the public is betting. Mainly because these numbers are completely false and really have no relation to anything and are for advertisement and promotion purposes more then anything. I can simply tell by looking forum to forum and base a very strong opinion based on the extreme media attention that Carolina and Newton have been getting that the volume on this line is EXTREMELY one sided in favor of the Panthers. Carolina has been a favorite once in the past 25+ games. Never in my entire life (15+ years of NFL betting) have I seen everyone, and I mean everyone so excited and willing to blindly bet an 0-2 team coming off a 2-14 season the year before with no major changes or improvements. There is a crazy perception on this team like nothing I have seen before. Between the media and the hype, people have got the impression that Carolina is a good team this year. For example, today at work (Golf Course Greens keeper) I was talking with a co worker of mine about who looks good this week. I said I like Jacksonville to beat up on the Panthers. His response to me was wow, aren't the Panthers really good this year.
NO! They are an 0-2 football team who have an extremely good chance at going 0-7! After they lose this week to Jacksonville they go to Chicago, home to New Orleans, in Atlanta (0-6) then home to the upstart Redskins. That is screaming 0-7 start, their worst start ever as a team. Carolina this week is a bookmakers DREAM. Everyone is talking about how good Cam Newton is going to be and how well this team is going to do. This line is an absolute gift. Carolina should not be favored against anyone in this entire league. The fact that they are favored against this Jacksonville team is bizarre.
Anyone taking stock in how the Panthers matched up against the Packers last week needs to give their head a shake. First of all, we have seen the bounce-back/rebound theory at its finest through two weeks this season. Green Bay coming off a Superbowl victory playing at home on Thursday to open up against New Orleans was one of the most thrilling games we will see all year. They then had an extra three days off before traveling to the worst team in the NFL from a season ago to play a road game before a Rivalry division game and rematch of last years playoff game against Chicago. If you think you saw the true Packers team in the first half of that game, your kidding yourself. Furthermore, that box score is VERY misleading. The Panthers did take a 13-7 lead into halftime. What it does not show is the unbalance and struggle the Panthers had in the Red Zone. The Panthers were 2:1 on pass run inside the Red Zone. As we have all seen in the past, teams that are one dimensional, almost always to the pass get burned in the Red Zone. How many times have we seen teams fly down the field and go 70 yards in four plays then end up three and out from the 10? These yards and stats are misleading. As soon as the yards count and as soon as the angles change and the defense can focus on the pass, the Panthers become predictable and easy to stop. Also as we have seen in both games the Panthers have played this season, as soon as the other team "wakes up" after spotting the Panthers a touchdown plus lead, the tides turn on the Panthers. Green Bay went into the half down 13-7 and came out with four scores in the third quarter on four drives. The Packers really had this game won by two touchdowns and only played 1.5 quarters. The last touchdown by Cam Newton was on a four yard run with 30 seconds to play on a drive littered with preventive prevent defense by the Packers. Like I said, unless you watched both of these games you do not have a true feel for the Panthers. People who are betting the box scores and betting the hype (90% of bettors?) have a false perception and are going to get burned.
Another thing you will notice if you watched the games is that the Panthers have been owned in the trenches for seven of eight quarters this season. The supposed dynamic duo of Williams and Stewart have rushed for 74 yards on 30 carries. This is not going to change this week as the Jags have allowed sixth best or 3.4 yards per rush defensively and fifth in total rush yards at 72 per game. Unlike Carolina you can put stock in these stats. Jacksonville has shut down the best rusher in the league in week one (Chris Johnson) and shut down the notorious smash mouth pound the ball up the middle Jets on the road last week (despite the loss). There is not a single thing that leads me to believe that Carolina will not yet against be extremely one dimensional. First week in the NFL, okay Carolina's offense is a surprise. Second week, adjustments were made. Ignore the first half, when the Packers woke up they were on a different level then the Panthers. Third week, I do not care if you have the Toronto Argonauts from the CFL on the field, these coaches and coordinators in the NFL are all way too good to fool for a third week. The gimmick is up this week.
Jacksonville is going to have a hay day running the ball this week. Carolina has two rookies, one was just signed to start on defense. MJD is at full go this week and will really have his say as to how far he wants to run. The Jags hung 163 yards on the Titans and 113 on the Jets last week. I wouldn’t be shocked to see a number higher then either of those on Sunday. For those giving the Blane Gabbert rookie argument, your all suckers to the hype of Newton. "Well it is Gabberts first ever NFL Start!" CAM NEWTON made his first ever start TWO SUNDAYS ago. If Gabbert comes out and throws for 400 yards (very unlikely but against this Carolina team, possible) and then puts 400 more up against the Saints in a let down game that even 5% of the people backing Newton right now will even notice? No chance in hell. We are talking about two games more experience here guys, come on. Pre draft Gabbert was expected to be the best quarterback coming out of the draft. Where did all of that hype go to? All signs coming out of Jacksonville is showing that he is more then ready and more then capable of starting in this league. What a better team to do it against then the Panthers. Combined with this running attack that Jacksonville has, he should be more then comfortable in the pocket throwing against this secondary. Don't expect huge things, but I know Gabbert is capable of keeping the ball safe and hanging a win on the board for his team. Two things god, err Newton is incapable of doing thus far.
The perception on this game is absolutely RIDICULOUS and this line is setting up for an absolute blood bath. A friend of mine who is a bookmaker told me that 8 of every 10 bets he took last week had the Ravens involved in it, I expect this game to be even higher. How did the Ravens do last week? Cam Newton fails to show up this week, and come Monday there will be a lot of sprained ankles from people jumping off the bandwagon. Carolina loses this game, and loses each of their next four and rolls to an 0-7 start.
Three points, a free hook. Ill take that all day long.

Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5

-VJ

[face]

i like the over. panthers defense sucks. but for the side, you don't think cam will run to get first downs if he cannot throw? and blaine gabbert doesn't know what he's doing either, how can you be so confident in him? and it's a home game and panthers have some pretty good pieces.

[Vegasjack2]

Personally I WANT Newton to try run for first downs this week, and I believe he will have too. Like I said, personel in this league are way too smart to let a gimmick and a rookie beat them three weeks in a row. Like I said as well, week one was a shock, week two was a let down, week three is the real deal, no matter who the team. Newton has a down game here period. The only thing that made his spectacular thus far was his ability to pass. He will not have that to nearly the extent he has had this far this week. Period.

So far, Newton has 18 carries for 71 yards and 2 TD's both which came on short scrambles in the red zone. 4 Yards vs GB and 1 Yard vs ARI. Nothing impressive, and believe me he has had the chance to run. I also have to say that his running ability in college is incredible, in the NFL every defensive player is MUCH faster and MUCH stronger. It won't fly in this league like it did for him at Auburn.

[Sunde91]

Did nobody notice that every single one of his passes has been to either a safety valve tight end/running back or a safe sideline route to Smith. Did nobody notice that every time those routes were taken away he was AT BEST a very below average quarterback. I can remember one series in particular against Green Bay where he had Smith in coverage and his two safety valves taken away on three straight plays. He went incomplete, incomplete and interception.

you either read what I wrote yesterday or we're some of the few on the same wavelegnth here not buying the hype

gl

[Vegasjack2]

you either read what I wrote yesterday or we're some of the few on the same wavelegnth here not buying the hype

gl

Just read it now and completely agree. We are one of the few I guess, and at least one of the few who will win on this game come Sunday.

[jess40]

I got panthers -3 once I heard the rookie was starting...feeling good about it.

[Vegasjack2]

I got panthers -3 once I heard the rookie was starting...feeling good about it.

Cam Newton is a rookie...?

Perfect example of what I am talking about. You just validated 85% of my write-up live and in person.

[SportsPedagogy]

Public wants to pound the panthers .... im going to side with you on this one ...

[Vegasjack2]

Public wants to pound the panthers .... im going to side with you on this one ...

It has already happened.

[SportsPedagogy]

i know, i think ill let the line rise, already looks like its 4 ... 4.5 would be nice

[Vegasjack2]

I dont think it will go higher then four, even if it gets there. Not everyone is this stupid, there are people waiting to buy back this number. Normally I would hold out for four, but I got the field goal and a hook at very low juice, it really does not matter to me as Jacksonville wins it outright.

[Vegasjack2]

Line is now 3 at 5Dimes. Clearly someone is on the same page as I am

[tylerguy02]

You don't always win going against the public...This is one of those threads that you'll gloat your face off if it hits, but hope that it gets buried if you are wrong.

[allidoiswin89]

Love the post and agree with you that Cam has gotten way to much hype.

Yes he is a good talent, but they are 0-2 and he has thrown more picks than TD's which won't win many games.

Jags aren't that great either. Carolina has had a non-existen run game with two pretty good RB's. I look for Carolina at home to use run game to open up Cam's passing even more, leading to less INT's and winning this game.

Jag's are starting Gabbert and in the preseason he looked far from impressive. But then again Cam didn't look good either.

Best of luck to you. This game is intriguing but its going to come down to if Carolina can run the ball and if Jags can throw the ball since I would assume the panthers would stack the box against MJD.

Good luck to all on their bets

[5mike5]

i love carolina today...gabbert=lose

[McBa1n]

Really nice and well thought out OP. ******* hell, I LOVE it, even though I think you're under estimating Newton's early in his career play. The kid has a lot to learn, but out of nowhere, he's become a pretty accurate passer. That's something we've never seen out of him. There's no tape that shows that. I sure as hell didn't expect it.

I, also, think Carolina is being over-estimated. Newton has shown promise. Charles Johnson has played really well since getting his contract. With Beason down, there really isn't much to say about Carolina, except for the kid who started for Otah last week did a heluva job vs Clay.

This game is a no-play for me. If I really wanted action, the Jags are the no-brainer play. I tend to bet against rookie QBs/QBs in their first start and I usually get burned. I really am not high on Gabbert. Jax has the kind of team built for this type of game. I think the QB decisions in Jax are divisive for the the team and going this soon to the kid is probably a mistake. Heck, I'd be shocked if Del Rio keeps his job after this year. I'm shocked he hasn't lost that locker room yet, to be honest. The Jags are kind of a mystery to me. I didn't see much of their game last week, but the Jets are a good football team. Carolina? Sheesh. Not even close to a good football team. Rivera has them playing hard and giving huge effort, but they are just not that good. Not saying the Jags are much better, but they are better - and Carolina's run game is a far cry from where it needs to be. They're outta their mind throwin the ball that much with ANY QB.

Anyhow, loved the write-up. Like the play. Wish more people had more well thought-out points and posts like the OP. Well done. Right or wrong, more thought out opinion is a good thing. GL with your plays.

[Buckeye]

Carolina rolls over a terrible Jville squad!

[late4thegame]

Newton overrated...yes, But last I saw, Jacksonville was the opponent and Car is at home. Car plays tough against AZ and Green Bay and comes home to lose to Jack? I don't see it.

[bradleysnyder]

wow.....JACK ASS is all i can say.Your betting on a team that scored 3 points last week against possibly the best rookie QUARTERBACK to ever enter the NFL?

You need to get your head checked.NO WAY CAROLINA LOSES THIS GAME!!!!!!

YOUR JUST INSANE AND BY THE END OF THE GAME YOUR LONG POST THAT YOU SPENT ALL THIS TIME WRITING WILL LOOK STUPID!

Carolina -3 is the play PERIOD

[JMUplayer]

You have faith in a rookie QB who looked shaky in the pre-seaon going against gamble and the secondary?

[LT Profits]

Jags +3.5 is the ONLY playable side in this game, can't give points with Carolina vs. anyone...period

[LT Profits]

You have faith in a rookie QB who looked shaky in the pre-seaon going against gamble and the secondary?

And you have faith in the worst team in football giving points?

[linedrivr]

If Jax had a decent experienced QB to steer the ship then I would be on board with you but frankly they don't. Inexperienced ship captains steering both ships so a lean to the home team laying the FG. Better games on the board to lay cash on.

[bradleysnyder]

all you assholes who think jacksonville has a shot are just BLIND ANDDDD HATE CAM NEWTON....PATHERS ARE GOING TO ROLL!!!!

THIS THREAD REALLY PISSES ME OFF BECAUSE THIS GUY ACTS LIKE CAROLINA HAS NO SHOT.I WOULD TAKE CAM NEWTON OVER GABBERT ANY DAY OF THE YEAR.IF YOU HAVE READ THIS THREAD THEN YOU HAVE BECAME "STUPIDER" IF YOU BELIEVE ANYTHING THIS GUY SAYS.BUNCH OF HOG WASH CAM HATERS IS ALL IT IS....


AND L.T......SHAME ON YOU!!!!!!!

[LT Profits]

Gabbert will be a better NFL quarterback than Newton before all is said and done.

[bradleysnyder]

Gabbert will be a better NFL quarterback than Newton before all is said and done.

PLEASEEEEEEEEE

[LT Profits]

PLEASEEEEEEEEE

Your football ignorance keeps showing every time you post.

[bradleysnyder]

I'm a believer now.... its raining big time in Carolina BUT that's no excuse for the panthers to only have 5 points..... Lmao...... jack you were absolutely correct. Cam Newton is a pile of shit. 5 points??????? This guy is just a joke. If Carolina loses this game I'm done betting on the panthers this year. This is a pathetic performance

[LT Profits]

One game doesn't prove anything, the point is that Gabbert excelled in a PRO style offense at Missouri, and most scouts rated him as the best quarterback of this year's draft, well ahead of Newton. There is nothing that Newton does better than Gabbert except run the ball.

[tylerguy02]

Just so this horrible thread doesn't get buried...

[moneymac81]

Original poster is a total moron!

[loopydude11]

Just so this horrible thread doesn't get buried...

yea buddy

[tokio]

Take that!

[bradleysnyder]

One game doesn't prove anything, the point is that Gabbert excelled in a PRO style offense at Missouri, and most scouts rated him as the best quarterback of this year's draft, well ahead of Newton. There is nothing that Newton does better than Gabbert except run the ball.

football ignorance?

Gabbert will NEVER be what cam newton will become.Are you for real LT?I seriously can not believe you would say that!

quite frankly its a joke.Gabbert will be gone and out of the NFL within a few years.The next ryan leaf!

Cam will be around for years to come.People wont even know who gabbert is in about 3 years from now.Im shocked at your ignorant comments!

CAM HATER IS ALL YOU ARE.HE WILL PROVE PEOPLE LIKE YOU WRONG WITH-IN A FEW YEARS.TOO BAD THE VIKINGS OR TAMPA BAY COULDNT HAVE GOTTEN CAM.THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER TEAMS THIS YEAR WITH A BETTER QB.Mcnabbs days in the NFL ARE OVER AND TAMPA BAYS ENTIRE FRONT OFFICE SHOULD BE FIRED FOR BELIEVEING IN FREEMAN!

[LT Profits]

football ignorance?

Gabbert will NEVER be what cam newton will become.Are you for real LT?I seriously can not believe you would say that!

quite frankly its a joke.Gabbert will be gone and out of the NFL within a few years.The next ryan leaf!

Cam will be around for years to come.People wont even know who gabbert is in about 3 years from now.Im shocked at your ignorant comments!

CAM HATER IS ALL YOU ARE.HE WILL PROVE PEOPLE LIKE YOU WRONG WITH-IN A FEW YEARS.TOO BAD THE VIKINGS OR TAMPA BAY COULDNT HAVE GOTTEN CAM.THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN MUCH BETTER TEAMS THIS YEAR WITH A BETTER QB.Mcnabbs days in the NFL ARE OVER AND TAMPA BAYS ENTIRE FRONT OFFICE SHOULD BE FIRED FOR BELIEVEING IN FREEMAN!

Newton may not even be a quarterback in a few years, he is too inaccurate and yet forces passes, which is a fatal combination. How is that being a "Cam Hater" when I am just stating facts? He IS a great athlete that would probably benefit from a position change. Gabbert will be a very good NFL quarterback, he has all the physical tools and is already used to playing in a pro style offense.