[Cheme82]

This one has a funny feeling, just like I said on the Tennessee @ Houston last Sunday and look at the kind of bullshit Fisher came up with on their final drive.

I don't think Indy will lose but it might be a 3 or 4 point win. I wouldn't take the Jags either because they have been terrible this year and might get beat by double digits too, so basically to much guessing involved in this game. Save the cash and put on something more solid on Sunday.

YTD
NFL
38-15-1 185.45
Teasers
1-5 -45
CFB
42-32 76.35
Teasers
2-4 -23.5
NBA
3-3 -3
CBB
1-0 30

[haserfauld]

I couldn't decide really, so I parleyed the Indy moneyline with the over and bought it down to over 35. 21-14 pushes and i could see it being 21-24 or 17-20. Actually not bad payout, just slightly less than taking the spread. And my book has the spread at -7.

[Cheme82]

I hope it works for you.

[haserfauld]

I hope it works for you.

Thank you. Here's what it came down to for me. MJD is pretty sick, plus he's at home. Indy defense can't really stop the run, so jax will get some points (that's my over). However, if indy wants to guarantee their playoff spot, they have to win this or next week. Dungy likes to rest his starters before the playoffs, so everyone on indy will be playing tonight like their season depends on it. A win @ jax is much easier than beating the titans next week, and they wont want to be forced to beat themselves up against the titans right before playoffs. It's 78 in jacksonville and no winds, and manning is going to have a field day between wayne, clark, and gonzalez. dungy has no problem with small wins, and I could see this being decided by a fg or 2 (hence the ML play)

it's not so much the statistical approach most people take. I hope it doesn't burn me. I kept it at 1U / under 10% of the bankroll just in case.

[Cheme82]

That's good, my top plays are usually 10% of my roll too.