Hello my friends..

Last week I called for the Buffalo Bills to pull the upset win at Kansas City and they did just that, although I must admit that I did not expect to see them win as handily as they did in a 41-7 blowout. This week the Raiders visit Buffalo on a short week after defeating Denver on Monday night, I was hoping to get the Bills laying a very short price that was less than a FG.

However, Buffalo opened as a -4 point home favorite and although most of the money seemed to be coming in on the Bills they have since fallen to a -3 point favorite and then shot back up to a -4 point favorite once again which is a red flag to me. A check backwards in time shows that the last four times Buffalo has won and covered a game and then the following week were installed as a home favorite of between -3 to -6.5 points they have faltered by losing 3 of those 4 affairs in straight up fashion.

I nearly pulled the trigger on Tampa Bay +3 at Minnesota but in the end just couldnt do it, I like the fact that the Bucs play in two domes every year (at New Orleans and at Atlanta) so Minnys loud dome atmosphere shouldnt affect Tampa all that much...until I looked backwards in time that is. A check of past history reveals that Tampa is an amazing 7-3 ATS in their last 10 dome outings, however, they only won 3 of those 10 dome games in straight up fashion and when the posted line was Tampa +3 to +6.5 the Bucs were a shoddy 1-4 straight up and 3-2 ATS, in dome games where Tampa was spotted +7 or more is where they posted a mark of 4-1 ATS.

The Vikings faced the Bolts defense last week in San Diego and should find the sledding a little easier this week at home against a Tampa team that allowed Detroit to come to town and push them around to the tune of racking up 431 total yards including 126 on the ground which allowed the Lions to control the clock by a 36:25 to 23:35 margin. This week the Tampa defense will have to face a guy named Peterson.

I also nearly pulled the trigger on Washington, last week we backed these Skins at home over the visiting GMen and was rewarded with a nice 28-14 win. This week the Skins host the Arizona Cardinals who historically do not play well on the road and especially when installed as a road doggie as evidenced by Arizona having now lost an eye opening 25 of their last 33 roadies in straight up fashion in this role and posting a mark of 1-7 straight up and ATS in their last 8 as a road dog.

I know the Skins are in possible look a head mode as they have Dallas on deck, however, taking Washington looks a little too easy to me and you know what they say about things that look too good to be true, anyway, the line opened up a little high in my opinion with the Skins installed as a -4.5 point home favorite, however, after Washingtons romp over the Giants last week everyone and their brother is now on the Skins as evidenced by current betting trends which show 73% on Washington...yet the line has fallen backward to Skins -3.5...there is that darned red flag again!

Take care and be well my friends

Jim

TENNESSEE +6 over Baltimore
Sunday 9/18/11 1:00 pm est
3***Play Selection

Last year under offensive coordinator Cam Cameron, the Ravens changed the way their offensive line pass blocked and opened running lanes by incorporating a zone blocking scheme, during this past off season the Baltimore Ravens gave themselves a youth infusion by adding 19 new players to their roster along with three new faces along their offensive line...all as a means to knocking off divisional rival Pittsburgh who had beaten the Ravens the past seven straight times when Steeler QB Ben Roethlisberger was under center.

The Ravens posted a regular season mark of 12-4 last year which was good enough to make the playoffs as a wildcard, but not good enough to win the AFC North division and a first round bye as that honor belonged to divisional rival Pittsburgh...when the playoff smoke had cleared, it was once again the Steelers who had ousted the Ravens from post season action for the second time over the previous three seasons and it was Pittsburgh which advanced once again to the Super Bowl and not the Ravens.

Needless to say, Baltimore was pointing all off season to this match up versus the Steelers and had the date circled in red on their collective calendars, simply stating that Baltimore wanted to win last week's home opener against visiting Pittsburgh would be a huge understatement to say the least. When the final gun sounded last week the Ravens had done it in spectacular fashion...they had forced a mega seven Pittsburgh turnovers and won the game by an eye opening 35-7 final.

After gearing up for and then winning such an emotionally charged home opener last week over hated divisional rival Pittsburgh, all week long these Raven players have been back slapping each other as well as reading and listening to the talking heads in the media espousing the virtues of Baltimore. Doya think Baltimores emotional intensity will be at the same level this week on the road against a Tennessee team that finished last year with a mark of 6-10 and is already 0-1 this season? Me neither.

We backed the TiTans +1 last week in their season opening 14-16 loss at Jacksonville, however, I am not about to get off the TiTans quite yet and especially in a good spot like this with regard to backing Tennessee in their home opener as a good sized doggie. While true that Tennessee did not perform anywhere near as well as I thought they would last week in a close ATS loss for us, its equally true that Baltimore out performed everyones expectations last week including Joe Public who is still going ooooo-ahhhhhh over these Ravens as evidenced by the fact that in this contest a mega 89% of all side wagers have been on......you guessed it!!

I was actually able to get Tennessee +6.5 at offshore sportsbook Bodog Saturday, however, I noticed that most offshore outlets are offering the TiTans at +6 so that is the line I have used for grading purposes. If your offshore book or local book has the game listed at TiTans +5.5 wait until closer to game time as Joe Public will in all likelihood drive the number upward...wait as long as you can for a +6, if you can't get +6 and the line ends up going the other way don't worry about it, simply drop the wager down to a 2**Play Selection. The key is that we want at least +4.5 and we are good to go.

KEY STATS:

The TiTans have a new HC in Mike Munchak who replaced Jeff Fisher, however, Munchak is not new to the Tennessee organization as he has tallied 30 years with the TiTans as both a player and a coach....meaning that Munchak is no stranger with regard to prepping for Baltimore. Keep this in mind, these teams have met a total of five times since 2004 and 4 of those 5 meetings have been decided by exactly three points with Tennessee posing a mark of 3-2 straight up and 4-1 ATS in those affairs.

Look for TiTan RB Chris Johnson to get more than the15 touches that he received last week and look for new TiTan QB Matt Hasselbeck to be more in sync with his receivers this week as they all now have a game together under their collective belts. In the big picture, Hasselbeck might be a little aged now but he is still the best QB that has worn a TiTan jersey since Steve McNair, I fully expect to see the TiTans to utilize a stretch offense which will spread out the Raven defense and allow the TiTans to both run and pass the ball which will tire out that Raven defense.

Take care and be well

Jim