Hey...Thanks for stopping by. I've been doing some number crunching over the past year or so and have come up with a formula for picking NFL totals. I've tested the past 5 years and have never had a losing year. In fact, my formula has averaged a win rate over the past 5 years of63% and earned a total of +85.1 units (1 unit for every win and -1.1 unit for every loss).
I'm pretty excited about this year's season so I plan on posting my picks here for accurate record keeping. Unfortunately, I won't be able to post my picks until about 15-30 minutes prior to game time but feel free to check once in a while or follow along if you like.
Best of luck to everyone!!!
It was a great start yesterday going 4-1 +2.9 units!
Here are yesterday's results: tampa bay @ minnesota - over 41.5 (1 unit) - win +1 unit chicago @ new orleans - over 46.5 (1 unit) - loss -1.1 unit seattle @ pittsburgh - under 40 (1 unit) - win +1 unit kansas city @ detroit - over 45 (1 unit) -win +1 unit philadelphia @atlanta - over 50 (1 unit) - win +1 unit KATCHASE'S 2011 NFL Totals Record: 4-1-0
Last edited by KATCHASE; 09-19-11 at 07:25 PM.
Reason: HTML coding showed up unexpectedly so I just deleted that.
Thanks. Week 1 of my system went 5-1-1, but I'm not including that in this thread's record because the picks weren't documented here prior to game time.
I've been tweaking my system a bit and the results for the past 5 years would have been:
2010 (51-18) 74%...+31.2 units
2009 (53-23) 70%...+27.7 units
2008 (61-32) 66%...+25.8 units
2007 (50-32) 61%...+14.8 units
2006 (25-17) 60%...+6.3 units (weeks 5-21 only)
That's a total of 240-122 (win rate: 66%) and a total of +105.8 units.
Last edited by KATCHASE; 09-23-11 at 11:12 PM.
Reason: Corrected the unit total.
Not a good week. I added too many games that may have showed a positive long term EV in my research, but turned out to be a disaster for this one single day. I think I'm going to stick to my original 63% win rate games from now on. This will cut back on the number of daily plays and protect the bankroll from taking such a hit.
I'm still very confident in my system, but only time will tell...hence the reason for this thread.
san fran @ cinci - over 38.5 lose (-1.1 unit)
new england @ buffalo - over 54 win (+1 unit)
houston @ new orleans - over 51 (2 units) win (+2 units)
ny giants @ phili - over 46.5 lose (-1.1 units)
denver @ tenn - over 44 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
detroit @ minn - under 45 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
jacksonville @ carolina - over 43 lose (-1.1 units)
KC @ SAN DIEGO - under 44.5 (1 unit) win (+1 unit)
NY JETS @ OAK - under 41 (2 units) lose (-2.2 units)
BALT @ ST. LOUIS - under 42 (1 unit) lose (-1.1 units)
GREEN BAY @ CHICAGO - under 45.5 (1 unit) win (+1 unit)
DETROIT @ DALLAS 46.5 over
NEW ORLEANS @ JACKSONVILLE 45 under
SAN FRAN @ PHILI 43.5 under
TENN @ CLEVE 37.5 over
BUFFALO @ CINCI 43 over
MINN @ KC 40 over
CAROLINA @ CHICAGO 42 under
PITTS @ HOUSTON 46.5 over
Last edited by KATCHASE; 10-02-11 at 11:58 AM.
Reason: formatting issue