[riggs]

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

The Saints and Bears are two teams at 7-6 fighting to stay alive in the wild card race. Chicago actually has a shot at the division as well. The Saints are not a very good road team, but they do seem to cover a lot of their games on the road, somehow? NO defense is terrible, they can't tackle, they have injuries, they have an offensive minded coach, and Drew Brees is often forced to win games on his own on the road with his arm. He'll probably have to do it again Thursday night. Before I get ahead of myself, check out these numbers:

NO Saints Home Stats - On offense the Saints are averaging 33.3 ppg and raking up a total of 528 ypg. On defense the Saints are letting up an average of 22.3 ppg and 338.3 ypg.

NO Saints Away Stats - On offense the Saints are averaging 22.2 ppg and putting up a total of 386 ypg. On defense the Saints are letting up an average of 28.3 ppg and 350.1 ypg.

That's a difference of +11 total points and +142 total yards on offense when they're at home. On defense they're letting up 5 more total points on the road. On the opposite side the Bears score an average of 26.7 ppg at home compared to 20.6 on the road.

Chicago is not the same Defense they once were but they've showed signs of improvement as of late. Orton has played well enough to put the Bears in position to win, the Bears could easily have won 2-3 more games this year and they did beat the Eagles at home. I think Orton should be able to make some big plays off play action if Matt Forte continues to run like a madman. NO is going to have to play good defense in critical spots to stay in this game, we know they'll score, but they're going to have to make stops too! Keep in mind also that NO is traveling north to play a game against a desperate team in the cold on three days rest. The weather report Thursday night is 25 degrees. To my knowledge as of now, 60% of the public is on the Saints. I'M NOT!

Score Prediction: Bears 27, Saints 21

Thursday's Play: Chicago Bears -3 (2-3 Units)

[riggs]

I should have the rest of the week posted by Thursday, no later than Friday!

GL to everyone.

[riggs]

5 Power Plays for Week 15

Atlanta Falcons -3

Houston Texans +4

New York Giants +3

New York Jets -7

Arizona Cardinals -3

Write ups & other small plays soon to follow..... stay tuned!

[diehardfan]

Im glad someone else likes the Giants. GL this week.

[riggs]

New York Jets -7

The Jets were a complete and utter disappointment last week on the west coast, they weren't prepared, they came out flat, they didn't put pressure on Shaun Hill, and from the start of the game with the onside kick the Jets were in for a tough one. Not all is lost, they're still 8-5, they're in control of the division, they have 3 winnable games left, and at least they escaped home with no injuries. The Bills on the other hand are a f***** mess, they've scored an average of 3 points the last two weeks, they're offense sucks in the red-zone (when they get there that is), they consistently turn the ball over, and they're season is essentially over. What do the Bills have to play for??? It's gotten so bad that JP Loshman led the team in rushing with 53 yards last Sunday. On the other side of the argument Farve and the Jets WR's have played like s*** too! It's amazing the Jets and Favre ripped New England and Tennessee on the road, before losing to SF & Denver. There is good news for the Jets though, the home team in this series has won 8 of the last 12 meetings, Buffalo's Defense is f***** sad, they don't tackle well, they don't play the pass very well, and it looks like Aaron Schobel and Jabari Greer will be inactive on Sunday. Thomas Jones should also have a nice day as the Bills are ranked 19th against the run. Bottom Line in this one, if the Jets win by anything less than a TD at home no one should take them seriously, they can Just End The Season!

Score Prediction: Jets 27, Bills 16

[riggs]

New York Giants +3

The G-Men let me down last week but I still believe they're the best team in football at the moment. The Eagles played a solid game last week and the Giants just got caught. They looked lost out there, and when Hixon dropped that deep ball from Manning, I knew I wasn't winning that game! The Giants played soft on defense, they telegraphed nearly all of their blitz packages, they let McNabb escape several sacks on the field, and missed a half a dozen tackles behind the line of scrimage. Dallas played a decent game (defensively) vs. Pittsburgh but they looked horrible on offensive. Dallas is a soft team, and I'm not retreating from that opinion. Big Ben left so many opportunities on that field it was disturbing to watch. Dallas's secondary is horrid, they're really bad, they're also banged up. There's no way in hell Eli doesn't tear them up. The Giants should also have no problem running on Dallas, they're old and soft up the middle, they're ranked 16th vs. the run. The Giants don't give up much on the ground and its possible that Marion Barber wont play. The Giants don't give much in the air either, as they're ranked 8th vs. the pass. Expect the Giants to bring the heat and get to Romo early on, also, when's the last big game Romo won in a Dallas uniform after November? Tony Romo is 1-9 ATS as a starter after November. Some people have this crazy idea in their head that the Giants have nothing to play for because they already clinched the NFC East, but homefield advantage in the NFC is still up for grabs with Carolina coming on strong. Something tells me the Giants would love to deliver the death blow here and knock their historical rival out of playoff contention.

Score Prediction: Giants 26, Cowboys 20

[riggs]

Houston Texans +4

Don't even tell me you're not impressed with this team. They just got done humiliating Jacksonville on Monday night and upset GB on the road, now that's what you call momentum. They've played so well this year (imo), and if it wasn't for a few bone head plays and bad red-zone turn overs this is arguably an 8-5 team. Houston is the most underrated offensive team in the NFL, BUT THEY'RE IN THE TOP 5 in nearly every offensive category. Andre Johnson, Kevin Walters and Owen Daniels make up one of the best WR's/TE tandems in the league. Their kicker is a stud too, might be the best out there! Now they have 12-1 Tenn at home on Sunday, but does Tenn really look like a 12-1 team week in and week out??? They win some ugly f***** games! Their running game is great and they play like animals on defense but (imo) this game has let down written all over it. Before I get into anything else, I must say that I really like this game, and I'm strongly considering slamming down a large Money-Line Play on Houston. Check this stat out: The Texans are 7-0 ATS as home underdogs since October of 06. Tennessee will pound the ball and wont try to win this one in the air as Houston is ranked 25th vs. the run, but if Houston gets a quick score or two on the board early on I don't like Tenn chances here. Tennessee did run for 123 yards on Houston at Tenn this year, but that was off 32 attempts, that ain't so great! If it wasn't for Schaub tossing three picks, Houston would have kept that game much closer. Another component of Houston's offense is Steve Slaton, this guys really good, and don't forget he ran for 116 yards against the Titans. One last thing, check out some of Tennessee's wins this year: Tennessee beat the Browns with Dorsey, the Lions, Jacksonville, Chicago with Grossman, and they barely beat the Packers at home in overtime. I'm calling the upset here, but if you feel more comfortable with the points by all means, but don't shy away from this one!

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Titans 23

[BadBeatBodog]

I've seen a lot of people bring up NO's offensive road struggles, but everyone fails to mention that most teams in the NFL are worse offensively on the road. It's the same every year. You don't think something as obvious as this isn't worked into the line? Relatively speaking, though, NO still has a top ten offense on the road. THAT is something people overlook.

[riggs]

Atlanta Falcons -3

I cant believe how well this team has played this year and if Matt Ryan doesn't win Rookie of the Year it's a f****** crime. Before we get into this one check out TB injuries: OUT RB Earnest Graham, CB Torrie Cox, CB Sammy Davis. QUESTIONABLE DT Jovan Haye, DT Chris Hovan. The Falcons are relatively healthy, no injuries that I know of! Tampa Bay is a solid team, there's no doubt in that statement on my part, but at times their offense looks very shaky and they settle for way too many fg's. Adding to their offensive struggles, the Panthers ran for 300 yards on TB, what do you think Turner will do??? But I told you guys that TB's D-line injuries would present a problem with Jovan Haye and Chris Hovan on the bench. If these guys are out again, I think TB's in a lot of trouble this Sunday. I still love Jeff Garcia, how many passes did Tampa's receivers and backs drop. Can you imagine this guy on a team with a solid running game like Minnesota? He'd be amazing! Tampa should run the ball on Atlanta being that Atlanta's ranked 28th vs. the run. But who scares you in TB's back field, Warrick Dunn??? This is a huge game for Atlanta, I don't see them losing this one. Check this stat out: NFC South teams at home are 24-2 this year and 10-0 in the division. Wow!

Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Buccaneers 23

[riggs]

I've seen a lot of people bring up NO's offensive road struggles, but everyone fails to mention that most teams in the NFL are worse offensively on the road. It's the same every year. You don't think something as obvious as this isn't worked into the line? Relatively speaking, though, NO still has a top ten offense on the road. THAT is something people overlook.

How many teams in the league have differentials of 11 points and 142 yards???

[BadBeatBodog]

There are more teams in the league than you think, apparently, with large discrepancies in their home/road offensive performances. Look at IND, SD, PHI, ATL, ARI, CAR, GB, and DAL. But the large difference isn't what we're concerned about because it simply means NO is a good offense that benefits immensely from playing in a dome. People concentrate on how much better they are at home and can't be sure how good, relatively, they are on the road. So while you are talking about widely known facts that don't really help in figuring out a soft spot in the line, the Saints still being a relatively good offensive team on the road while the public is concentrating on their struggles versus at home is something that will help.

[riggs]

There are more teams in the league than you think, apparently, with large discrepancies in their home/road offensive performances. Look at IND, SD, PHI, ATL, ARI, CAR, GB, and DAL. But the large difference isn't what we're concerned about because it simply means NO is a good offense that benefits immensely from playing in a dome. People concentrate on how much better they are at home and can't be sure how good, relatively, they are on the road. So while you are talking about widely known facts that don't really help in figuring out a soft spot in the line, the Saints still being a relatively good offensive team on the road while the public is concentrating on their struggles versus at home is something that will help.

Fair enough, But check this out: Drew Brees (who I personally believe is the best in the league without a doubt and I hate betting against him) is a different quarterback on the road. Brees has thrown for 7 TD's and 10 INT's on the road compared to 19 TD's and 4 INT's at home. Just some food for thought!

[AC1318]

5 Power Plays for Week 15

Baltimore Ravens -2

Atlanta Falcons -3

Houston Texans +4

New York Giants +3

New York Jets -7

Write ups & other small plays soon to follow..... stay tuned!

agree on falcons jets. Texans giants games are up in the air. And I really think pitt wins outright. BOL.

[riggs]

agree on falcons jets. Texans giants games are up in the air. And I really think pitt wins outright. BOL.

I might downgrade Balt -2 to a smaller play. You know I just checked out the most recent Balt Injury updates and the list doesn't look too good. I still think Baltimore has a real good chance in this one, Big Ben is so unperdictable, and they're not running the ball this Sunday! I may have to wait to get the full extent of Baltimore injuries by Sunday.

Injuries for Week 15

Mark Clayton WR Knee Did Not Participate In Practice
Yamon Figurs WR Knee Did Not Participate In Practice
Jim Leonhard S Illness Did Not Participate In Practice
Derrick Mason WR Shoulder Did Not Participate In Practice
Ed Reed S Thigh Did Not Participate In Practice
Ray Rice RB Calf Did Not Participate In Practice
Matt Stover K Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice
Jared Gaither T Shoulder Limited Participation in Practice
David Hale G Ankle Limited Participation in Practice

*Tackle Jared Gaither (12/10, shoulder) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Safety Jim Leonhard (12/10, illness) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Wide receiver Mark Clayton (12/10, knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Wide receiver Yamon Figurs (12/10, knee) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Kicker Matt Stover (12/10, right ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Running back Ray Rice (12/10, calf) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh. *Defensive tackle Lamar Divens (12/10, shoulder) is on injured reserve. *Guard David Hale (12/10, ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against Pittsburgh.

[riggs]

Other Plays (1-2 Units Max)

**Cardinals -3 The Cards should move it with ease in the air!

**Redskins -6.5 Cinci is horrible, Washington needs this one!

**Panthers -7 Carolina runs all over Denver in a shoot out!

*Packers -1.5 Jacksonville sucks!

*49'ers +6.5 Too many points!

*Ravens -2 ??? Keep a close eye on the Injury Report!

*Chiefs +6 Not as bad as I thought, QB is a bright spot!

*Patriots -7 Oakland is the worst team in the NFL, YES, worse than Detroit!

Seahawks vs. Rams (No Play)

Lions vs. Colts (No Play)

Eagles vs. Browns (No Play)

[BadBeatBodog]

Fair enough, But check this out: Drew Brees (who I personally believe is the best in the league without a doubt and I hate betting against him) is a different quarterback on the road. Brees has thrown for 7 TD's and 10 INT's on the road compared to 19 TD's and 4 INT's at home. Just some food for thought!

And yet they are still a top 10 road offense. I hear you, I understand what you're saying, but I compare this situation to looking at an over/under in baseball. The most obvious stats to look at would be the respective teams' home/away offensive splits, but the problem is everyone looks at that and it is readily available information. How teams perform relative to their competition and situation is most important.

[riggs]

And yet they are still a top 10 road offense. I hear you, I understand what you're saying, but I compare this situation to looking at an over/under in baseball. The most obvious stats to look at would be the respective teams' home/away offensive splits, but the problem is everyone looks at that and it is readily available information. How teams perform relative to their competition and situation is most important.

Yes, but a dome team playing in Chicago, at night, when it's 20 degrees, with 15 mph winds changes the scenario a bit don't you think? And to add to that, NO has played 2 out of their last 3 games at home and 1 in Florida @TB.

[riggs]

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears

The Saints and Bears are two teams at 7-6 fighting to stay alive in the wild card race. Chicago actually has a shot at the division as well. The Saints are not a very good road team, but they do seem to cover a lot of their games on the road, somehow? NO defense is terrible, they can't tackle, they have injuries, they have an offensive minded coach, and Drew Brees is often forced to win games on his own on the road with his arm. He'll probably have to do it again Thursday night. Before I get ahead of myself, check out these numbers:

NO Saints Home Stats - On offense the Saints are averaging 33.3 ppg and raking up a total of 528 ypg. On defense the Saints are letting up an average of 22.3 ppg and 338.3 ypg.

NO Saints Away Stats - On offense the Saints are averaging 22.2 ppg and putting up a total of 386 ypg. On defense the Saints are letting up an average of 28.3 ppg and 350.1 ypg.

That's a difference of +11 total points and +142 total yards on offense when they're at home. On defense they're letting up 5 more total points on the road. On the opposite side the Bears score an average of 26.7 ppg at home compared to 20.6 on the road.

Chicago is not the same Defense they once were but they've showed signs of improvement as of late. Orton has played well enough to put the Bears in position to win, the Bears could easily have won 2-3 more games this year and they did beat the Eagles at home. I think Orton should be able to make some big plays off play action if Matt Forte continues to run like a madman. NO is going to have to play good defense in critical spots to stay in this game, we know they'll score, but they're going to have to make stops too! Keep in mind also that NO is traveling north to play a game against a desperate team in the cold on three days rest. The weather report Thursday night is 25 degrees. To my knowledge as of now, 60% of the public is on the Saints. I'M NOT!

Score Prediction: Bears 27, Saints 21

Thursday's Play: Chicago Bears -3 (2-3 Units)

So who rolled with the Bears tonight???

[riggs]

I apologize to anyone who took the Bears -3 tonight after reading my post. #1. I didn't know how bad these a**holes really are in the 2nd half of games and #2. I should have looked at the reffing crew for tonights game, they're the absolute f***** worst in the business! The worst missed call of the season took place tonight in the end-zone. Not to mention the no catch call on that idiotic fake punt!

All in all I had a decent night because of safety bets, I just hope you guys did too!

Ticket Number: 81994236 - 1
Accepted Date: Dec 10, 2008 12:58 AM - EST
Graded Date: December 11, 2008 11:44 PM - EST
Wager Type: Money Line
Wager Status: Won
Risk: $300.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $200.00 (USD)
Amount Paid: $500.00 (USD)
Description: Football NFL - 302 Chicago Bears -150 for Game


Ticket Number: 81986679 - 1
Accepted Date: Dec 09, 2008 11:17 PM - EST
Graded Date: December 11, 2008 11:45 PM - EST
Wager Type: Parlay(2 team)
Wager Status: Won
Risk: $150.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $280.00 (USD)
Amount Paid: $430.00 (USD)
Description: Football NFL - 302 Chicago Bears -150 for Game Football NFL - 301 New Orleans Saints / Chicago Bears Over 42½ buying 2 points -150 for Game


Ticket Number: 81986457 - 1
Accepted Date: Dec 09, 2008 11:14 PM - EST
Graded Date: December 11, 2008 11:45 PM - EST
Wager Type: Football 7½ pt Teaser Teaser(2 team)
Wager Status: Won
Risk: $300.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $210.00 (USD)
Amount Paid: $510.00 (USD)
Description: Football NFL - 302 Chicago Bears +4½ for Game Football NFL - 301 New Orleans Saints / Chicago Bears Over 37 for Game


Ticket Number: 81986594 - 1
Accepted Date: Dec 09, 2008 11:16 PM - EST
Graded Date: December 11, 2008 11:41 PM - EST
Wager Type: Spread (or run line)
Wager Status: Cancelled
Risk: $550.00 (USD)
To Win Amount: $520.38 (USD)
Amount Refunded: $550.00 (USD)
Description: Football NFL - 302 Chicago Bears -3 -105 for Game

[riggs]

Arizona Cardinals -3

Before we get into this one check out the injury report for Minnesota. Vikings Injuries OUT: QB Gus Frerotte, DE Kenechi Udeze, DT Kendrick Allen, LB E.J. Henderson, CB Charles Gordon , S Madieu Williams, S Michael Boulware. QUESTIONABLE: Both of Minnesota's D-TACKLES may be out??? The Cardinals are at 100%, no significant injuries at all! Even if those two fat basterds play I don't think it will matter, how will Minnesota stop Arizona's passing attack? The Vikings looked f****** horrible against Detroit. The Cardinals wont need to run the ball - Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston will torch the Vikings secondary. Also if Tarvaris Jackson starts, Minnesota has no chance in hell in winning this game. To make matters worse for Minn, Arizona's weakness is against the pass, believe it or not Arizona is ranked in the top 10 against the run this year! The Cardinals have already won the NFC West, but why shouldn't they shoot for 11 wins? Are they sure of themselves on the road in the playoffs? The #1 or #2 seed could just as easily get knocked off, they're playing for home field advantage now! Here are a few things to consider: The Vikings are 3-23 ATS in their last road game since 1980. The Cardinals are 12-4 ATS in December home games since 2000, they're 10-4 SU at home and 6-1 ATS at home as favorites of -3 or less under Whisenhunt.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 30, Vikings 19

[riggs]

Ok Gentlemen, so here's everything in one post. Let's f****** get em'.

5 Power Plays for Week 15

Atlanta Falcons -3

Houston Texans +4

New York Giants +3

New York Jets -7

Arizona Cardinals -3

Other Plays (1-2 Units Max)

**Redskins -6.5 Cinci is horrible, Washington needs this one!

**Panthers -7 Carolina runs all over Denver in a shoot out!

*Packers -1.5 Jacksonville sucks!

*49'ers +6.5 Too many points!

*Ravens -2 ??? Keep a close eye on the Injury Report!

*Chiefs +6 Not as bad as I thought, QB is a bright spot!

*Patriots -7 Oakland is the worst team in the NFL, YES, worse than Detroit!

Seahawks vs. Rams (No Play)

Lions vs. Colts (No Play)

Eagles vs. Browns (No Play)

[Nellyinctown]

I like almost all of your picks. IMO, the Arizona game I would stay away from. a) the Cardinals have nothing to play for b) Matt Leinart will probably see some action in this game c) Minnesota has to have this game

I also am wary of betting on the Packers or the Jags as both teams are horrendous. GB's coaching will keep this game close, and there will be numerous subs played.

I also think the 49ers will regress this week against a fundamentally sound Dolphins squad.

But other than that I think you are bang on. I might even put a small ML wager on the Chiefs straight up. Norv might get fired immediately after this one.

Good luck!

[riggs]

I like almost all of your picks. IMO, the Arizona game I would stay away from. a) the Cardinals have nothing to play for b) Matt Leinart will probably see some action in this game c) Minnesota has to have this game

I also am wary of betting on the Packers or the Jags as both teams are horrendous. GB's coaching will keep this game close, and there will be numerous subs played.

I also think the 49ers will regress this week against a fundamentally sound Dolphins squad.

But other than that I think you are bang on. I might even put a small ML wager on the Chiefs straight up. Norv might get fired immediately after this one.

Good luck!

Arizona still has a chance to go 11-5, it's only week 15, it's not the 16th or 17th week of the season! I can not see Minnesota winning this one in the desert. Tavaris Jackson sucks and Arizona's weakness is against the pass, not the run. I'm fairly confident about this game.

The Jags have given up, these guys just want to end the season already. I never thought they were a good team to begin with!

Miami doesn't blow out anyone (and Buffalo doesn't count), Miami wins this game SU but not by a large number.

The Chiefs might be a nice ML play this Sunday, I really think they got something special at the QB position.

[riggs]

Baltimore -2 is back on tap! Injuries shouldn't be a concern.

Injury Report
Mark Clayton Probable
Yamon Figurs Probable
David Hale Probable
Ed Reed Probable
Samari Rolle Probable
Jared Gaither Probable
Jim Leonhard Probable
Derrick Mason Probable
Matt Stover Probable

[SportNut]

Thanks for this thread, very nice!!

[riggs]

Thanks for this thread, very nice!!

At least someone likes it. You wouldn't believe the backlash I got from people on this forum for backing the Texans this week. I've been called an idiot, crazy, and even an uninformed kid!

[MikeZaW]

Even though I'm on the other side of the Tennessee / Houston game, I can definitely see why your on Houston and my initial lean was to Houston. Changed my mind about it and believe it or not I thought it looked like Tenn. was the right pick even with the low trap #. Good Luck this Week. I like your Power Plays a lot!