I'm looking for the Saints to get off on the right foot tonight against the champs. Brees is healthy with the addition of Ingram will help keep their defense off the field. I feel both team's aerial attack struggles in the first half keeping N.O. in the game. I see the game coming down to the last drive and a game winning field goal.
Saints had a chance at the end but couldn't get it done. Who would predict each team to score a TD in each quarter, it only had once last year....Tampa/Cards.
Pittsburgh has been consistent on opening day and Ben is undefeated against Flacco in his career (6-0). The Ravens have a lot of question marks that need to be answered before I believe they won't collapse in the 4th quarter handing another game to the Steelers. Matt Ryan and Atlanta's offense has been on fire through the preseason. The home field conditions in Chicago at this time of year will not impact Atlanta's air/ground attack. The Redskins appear to have the pieces on offensive and defensive to compete this year in the NFC East. The addition of Hightower and strong QB play accompanied by usually top 10 defense with a Giants' defense limping into DC, I will take the home dog. All I have to say, no Peyton, Colts have no chance. Houston won by 10 (34-24) last year with Peyton under center, I see no reason the outcome isn't the same. Rex and the Jets host America's team Sunday night, I believe the Jets feel this is an opportunity for them to prove they are the new America's Team. I think it will be tough for any team to enter New York tomorrow and not be distracted by the events surrounding the 9/11 ceremonies and the Cowboys are notorious for not showing up for big games.
Week 1
Saints +4.5 2 units Loss
Pitt +1 4 units
Atlanta -3 3 units
Wash +3 2 units
Houston -9 2 units
Jets -5.5 1 unit
Week 1
Saints +4.5 2 units Loss
Pitt +1 4 units Loss
Atlanta -3 3 units Loss
Wash +3 2 units Win
Houston -9 2 units Win
Jets -5.5 1 unit Loss
New England -8 3 units Win
Denver -3 1 unit Loss
I like Detroit this week in their home opener, Detroit has won their last 5 games dating back to last year. The lose of Berry in the secondary for KC should allow Stafford to take a couple more chances deep with C Johnson. My next 2 picks are simply West coast teams traveling East for a 1pm game. Arizona allowed Cam to throw for 400+ yards last week and Hightower faces in former team for the first time, Redskins by a TD. Seattle is 1 for 10 in their last 10 trips to the East coast. Pitt needs some home cooking after last weeks debacle against the Ravens. I would have put more units on them but I'm not big on laying 3 scores and everyone being on the same side. I like Chicago and New Orleans to go over the total (48) as NO returns home after a nice offensive output in Green Bay. Rogers lit up the Saints secondary, Culter should do the same. Baltimore travels to former rival from the old AFC Central, Tennensse struggled with Jacksonville last week. Tenn is 1-3 ATS in the last 4 meeting against Baltimore. Last game is Atlanta, they were undefeated at home until the playoffs last year. I know it's a home game for Vick but it's their second game on the road and Alt was embarrassed last week in Chicago. Their offensive has something to prove this week against possibly the best set of corners in the NFC, I'll take the home dog here.
Week 2
Detroit -8.5 3 units
Wash -4 2 units
Pitt -14.5 2 units
NO/Chic over 48 1 unit
Baltimore -6.5 1 unit
Alt +3 2 units
The Browns are 0-5 ATS in its last 5 home games and 1-5 in its last 6 games, that win was the Colts last week minus Peyton. Cleveland allowed the Bengals their 1st win in Ohio and I see them doing the same for the Dolphins with Sparano on the hot seat. Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road. I'm going to ride the Lions going into Minnesota, McNabb has looked like the same QB I saw in DC. Suh and the D-line control Peterson and Stafford wins the QB battle. It has been 30 years since Detroit has been favored in Minnesota, can they live up to the 2011 hype? Baltimore rebounds in St. Louis, Rams are on a short week and limping into Sunday just as the Ravens are but a veteran defense with something to prove from last week should give Bradford without weapons enough problems to cover. Pittsburgh handled their business against Seattle and should overpower the Colts and Collins in prime time.
Week 3
Miami +3 2 units
Detroit -4 2 units
Baltimore -4 2 units
Pitt -11 4 units
Still struggling to catch some breaks, turnovers are killing me.
Week 3
Miami +3 2 units Win
Detroit -4 2 units Loss
Baltimore -4 2 units Win
Pitt -11 4 units Loss
The Skins usually play Dallas well in Texas, Dallas is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games at home and 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games against Washington. Lets see if Hall and the defense can get to Romo tonight and get their second division win. Dallas isnt healthy in key positions starting with QB, RB and WR keeping the score in the low 20's.
Wash +3 1 unit
Dallas has a short week but doesn't have to travel, hosting the rolling Loins. Dallas's injuries and 1-4-1 ATS record in the last 6 games has me believing Detroit continues to a 4-0 start. Minnesota has run the ball well in the first half of all 3 games but abandoning Peterson in the second half or in key situations. McNabb's struggles and KC's defense allowing an average of 140 ypg on the ground, spells a full dose of AP. Atlanta tries to right the ship in Seattle, this looks like a no-brainer but Alt has been inconsistent playing 3 playoff teams and has to play in possibly the loudest stadium in the NFL where the Seahawks are 4-2 SU in their last 6 home games but 1-4 ATS against Alt at home. I'm looking for the G-man to continue to build on their last 2 wins (STL,Phi), the Giants don't have a great record on the road covering the spread but with a small number Manning finds away to get out of Arizona with a win. Oakland has McFadden and NE has Brady, can NE put enough points on the board to neutralize Oakland's run game by making them play catch up. I see no reason why Brady doesn't throw for 400+ and rebound from last week's 4 INT performance. the match up is Oakland's secondary ranked 28th in the league against the top ranked passing offense.
Week 4
Detroit +2.5 2 units
Minn -2 2 units
Atlanta -4.5 2 units
NYG -1 2 units
NE -5 2 units
Week 4
[/U][/B]Detroit +2.5 2 units Win Minn -2 2 units Loss
Atlanta -4.5 2 units Loss
NYG -1 2 units Win NE -5 2 units Win
I'm still not impressed with Indy, they scored points off of Ben's 4 turnovers (1 fumble ran back for a TD). Tampa's defense should play better in front of an amp up home crowd and against a weak Colts offense. I like playing with the spread here because you don't know what Painter is going to add. My though is if Painter was all that Collins wouldn't have been pulled off the couch to save the team. Freeman is a future star and stars show up in prime time games.
TB -4.5/under 46.5 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units
Week 4
[/u][/b]Detroit +2.5 2 units Win
Minn -2 2 units Loss
Atlanta -4.5 2 units Loss
NYG -1 2 units Win
NE -5 2 units Win
TB -4.5/under 46.5 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Win
Oakland and Houston are ranked 1st and 4th in yards rushing, 8th and 10th in total offense but Oakland is ranked 29th against the run and 22nd against the pass which should give Houston the edge. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 games against Houston. NO and Carolina are ranked 2nd and 3rd in total offense and 15th and 14th in total defense. Both teams are 3-1 ATS so far this year with Cam generating 2 back door covers, showing me he plays the full 60 minutes. The Jags held the Saints to 23 pts, the Panther's D at home should be able to duplicate. Jacksonville was only able to put up 10 pts last week, I look for at least 20 from Carolina. I like this spot again with Seattle traveling to the East coast for a 1pm game. 2 weeks ago they traveled to Pittsburgh and were beat 24-0, both road losses have been by an average of 20 pts. NYG are on a 3 game winning streak with a scoring average of 29.5 pts. Division game, Jets facing a 3-2 start with a loss in Gillette Stadium Sunday, does their secondary have the answer for Tom Brady and NE offense? Can Revis and Cromartie cover Welker and Branch? Heene, Rivers, Fitzpatrick and Campbell all threw for over 300 yards, Sanchez should do the same. I see a possible win for the Jets if their 8th ranked defense can get pressure on Brady. It has been hard to figure out the Jets so far, so I'm going to tease the spread up and total down for insurance. Green Bay is headed back to where the Superbowl ride started. Rogers indoor and the speed and strength of their offense with Atlanta's defense that allowed 28 pts to Seattle last week, the only question is how many pts can Atlanta score on the Packer's D to stay in the game?
Week 5
Houston -5.5 2 units
Panthers +6.5 2 units
NYG -9.5 4 units
NYJ +13.5/over 43 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units
Green Bay -5.5 2 units
Due to the death of Al Davis, I'm going to scratch my wager on their game today. I don't know how Oakland will emotionally respond on the road today. Adding 49ers -3 and a 6 pt teaser to the GB/Alt game tonight.
Week 5 Houston -5.5 2 units
Panthers +6.5 2 units
NYG -9.5 4 units
NYJ +13.5/over 43 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units
SF -3 2 units
Green Bay -5.5 2 units
Green Bay +.5/over 47.5 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units
MNF...Detroit hosting a division opponent in Chicago, on a national televised game not on Thanksgiving Day. The Lions sporting a 4-0 mark including 2 4Q comeback in the last 2 games. Detroit is ranked 11th in total offense and defense with Chicago ranked just above New England at 31. The line opened at Lions -7 and moved down as low as -5 through the week and has made it back up to -7 today. Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games against Detroit but Chicago has been the favored in all 6 match ups. In the last 5 years Detroit has been averaging +3.5 spread at home against the Bears. I know this isn't the same Lions team of the past but can these Lions jump out of the shadow of their past in a prime time game? This is a game I'm going to go against the numbers, Detroit's strong passing game against Chicago's weak secondary, screams Detroit in a blowout at home. I just feel Chicago finds a way to stay in the game, possibly special teams. Detroit win late by a fg, I'll take the 7 and hope Culter doesn't have a 3 INT night.
Week 5
Panthers +6.5 2 units Win
NYG -9.5 4 units Loss
NYJ +13.5/over 43 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Win
SF -3 2 units Win
Green Bay -5.5 2 units Win
Green Bay +.5/over 47.5 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Loss
Chicago +7 2 units
Chicago +13/over 42 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units
Week 5
Panthers +6.5 2 units Win
NYG -9.5 4 units Loss
NYJ +13.5/over 43 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Win
SF -3 2 units Win
Green Bay -5.5 2 units Win
Green Bay +.5/over 47.5 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Loss
Chicago +7 2 units Loss
Chicago +13/over 42 (6-pt Teaser) 2 units Loss
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS this year, riding a 2 game winning streak hosting the 0-5 Colts. Cincy's top ranked defense going against the 30th ranked offense should provide opportunities for Cincy. Dalton/Green should have success since Indy is allowing 68% completion rate and 27 pts per game. Oakland returns home, first chance for the their fans to show respect to the late Al Davis. The emotional ride should push the Raiders past Cleveland whose 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. The Ravens (8-2 ATS after bye week) were strong off a bye before John Harbaugh took over in 2008, but they’ve been virtually unstoppable since. Harbaugh is 3-0 ATS off a bye and has won all three games by a combined 84-27. In the process, the Ravens have covered the spread by 11, 18.5 and 17 points, and haven’t allowed more than 10 points in any of the three games. NE and Dallas have the 1st and 6st ranked offense but the difference is on defense, Dallas is ranked 4th and NE is ranked last. Points shouldn't be a problem in this game, the Jets 8th ranked D held NE to 30 pts last week but struggled to score, Dallas should be able to keep pace. The Jets have struggled to find their identity this year but Miami has been just a disaster. Miami is coming off their bye week and all you hear is Marshall wants is to get thrown out the game Monday night. Each week you think they are going to win for their coach in an attempt to secure his job but just find ways late in games to continue the losing streak. Miami is 6-11-3 ATS in the last 20 games on the road against the NYJ.
Week 6
Cinc -7 4 units
Oakland -7 2 units
Baltimore -7 2 units
Dallas +7 2 units
NYJ -7 2 units
This is the week of the bye teams, last week teams coming off the bye were 1-5 (Baltimore the only winner). San Diego takes their 4th ranked defense to New York against their 29th ranked offense. Miami moved the ball on the Jets Monday night but was unable to convert yards into points. San Diego is ranked 6th in offense which should drop 24-30 points on the Jets D, San Diego is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games. Houston is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 1-4 ATS against Tenn in the last 5 meetings. Stats are out the window in this game, Tim Tebow is headed home for his 1st start this year and his 2008 Florida Gators team is being honored at halftime. Miami is on a short week and playing in front their home crowd which could be cheering for the opposing QB, Tebow. Pitt has been struggling on the road, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Arizona's head coach, a former coordinator for Pittsburgh should play for an interesting match up. This will be the second time they have met, last time was in the 2009 Superbowl. The Colts are 2-5 ATS with Manning in the last 7 meetings with Brees and his Saints. Painter has been play well but the Colts are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games. NO is coming off a divisional loss in Tampa last week and looking to get back on track at home where they are undefeated this year, winning both games by an average of 15 pts.
San Diego -PK 2 units
Tenn -3 4 units
Denver -PK 2 units
Ariz +4 2 units
NO -13.5 2 unit
San Diego -PK 2 units Loss
Tenn -3 4 units Loss
Denver -PK 2 units Win Ariz +4 2 units Loss
NO -13.5 2 unit Win
Adding a 6 point teaser for MNF, Jacksonville is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games and 2-4-1 ATS when playing home against Baltimore.
Baltimore -4/44.5 under 2 units
Week 7
San Diego -PK 2 units Loss
Tenn -3 4 units Loss
Denver -PK 2 units Win
Ariz +4 2 units Loss
NO -13.5 2 unit Win
Baltimore -4/44.5 under (6-pt teaser) 2 units Loss
Tom Brady is 4-1 at Heinz Field and has a 6-1 record against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in the last 7 games when playing home against NE. New England -2.5 2 units
Jacksonville is 6-12 ATS in its last 18 games when playing Houston. The Jags had an emotional win Monday night but are traveling on a short week, facing a team that should be able to put up more points than The Ravens did. Houston -9 2 units
Miami is 0-5-1 ATS this year, converting 23% on 3rd down which should give the Giants more opportunities to put points on the board. NYG -9 2 units
San Francisco is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games and 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home. Cleveland only put 6 points on the board against Seattle at home last week, now has to go on the road and play one of the hottest teams in the NFC. Cleveland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road 49ers -8.5 4 units
Arizona is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road. Baltimore needs to bounce back from Monday night's pitiful display on offense. I expect a heavy dose of Ray Rice today, he had only 13 total touches (8 carries and 5 rec) in Monday's lost. Pitt put 32 on Zona last week beating on the road by 12. Baltimore -12 2 units
Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games and Dallas is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. I know Andy Reid is 12-0 SU and 8-2 ATS in his last 10 games when coming off the bye week but with the off season rule change during the bye week (4 mandatory days off) seem to not support bye week trends. Teams coming off the bye week this year are 3-9 SU and 4-6-2 ATS. Jason Garrett has been an underdog in 6 games as the Cowboy's head coach and is 6-0 ATS in those games. Dallas +3 2 units
Week 8
NE -2.5 2 units Loss
Houston -9 2 units Win
NYG -9 2 units Loss
SF -8.5 4 units Win
Baltimore -12 2 units Loss
Dallas +3 2 units Loss
Dating back to 2007, the Chargers have won seven of the last eight meetings including four of the last five at Arrowhead Stadium. Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games, 24-10-4 ATS in their last 38 vs. AFC West. The Chiefs are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home game, 1-5 last six in September. I see the Chargers bouncing back from their loss on the road to the Jets last week. KC beat Oakland last week 28-0 but struggled on offense, they should have scored 40 on Oakland. Cassel threw for only 161 with 2 INTs and no TDs. the 28 points were off of 2 interception returns and short field opportunities from the 6 INT Boller/Palmer combined for, Rivers isnt going to throw 6 INT tonight to give them all their points. SD moves to 5-2 tonight. San Diego -3 2 units
Week 8
NE -2.5 2 units Loss
Houston -9 2 units Win
NYG -9 2 units Loss
SF -8.5 4 units Win
Baltimore -12 2 units Loss
Dallas +3 2 units Loss
San Diego -3 2 units Loss
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home but Atlanta is 1-2 ATS on the road this year. The Colts have been on the road the last 3 weeks and with the support of the home crowd should stay close. Atlanta's offense is only averaging 22 pts per game. Indianapolis +7 2 units
Washington surprised everyone out of the gate but has fell to the bottom of the NFC East, 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games and 0-3 ATS in their last 3 games. On the other side of the ball is the 49ers, who are on a roll in 2011 with league best 6-0-1 ATS. Washington has too many injuries in too many key spots. No stability at QB with the introduction of Beck, SF defense should be too much for the Redskins' inconstant passing and running game. 49ers -4 2 units
Cincinnati is traveling to Tennessee this week with the 4th ranked defense and 2 rookie studs on offense. The Bengals are 4-0 ATS and 4-0 SU in their last 4 games. While Chris Johnson has struggled to find himself this year not helping the Titans make a move in the wide open AFC South. The Titans are 4-3 but also have struggled against above 500 teams, they have only beat 1 team that has a current winning percentage better than 500 (Ravens). Cinn +3 2 units
San Diego is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games and 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay. GB is coming off their bye (teams off the bye week in 2011 are 8-10 SU/8-8-2 ATS but last week 5-1 SU/4-2 ATS) and SD is coming off a disaster Monday night with Rivers fumbling the game away in the 4Q. Rivers should be able throw for yards against GB defense but SD has been horrible in the redzone. I can see GB getting off to a slow start coming off the bye, possible losing their momentum on offense that has got them out to a 7-0 start. In the 4Q, Rodgers will show Rivers how a QB wins the game for his team not lose it. Green Bay -5.5 2 units
GB/SD under 51 2 units
Week 9
Indy +7 2 units Loss
49ers -4 2 units Win
Cincy +3 2 units Win
Green Bay -5.5 2 units Win
GB/SD under 51 2 units Loss
This should be all defense, the Ravens are ranked #1 and the Steelers are ranked #2 in total yards given up on defense. Also Joe Flacco and the Ravens offense has been inconsistent especially on the road in 2011. This could look like the LSU/Bama game last night. adding Balt/Pitt under 42.5 4 units
Week 9
Indy +7 2 units Loss
49ers -4 2 units Win
Cincy +3 2 units Win
Green Bay -5.5 2 units Win
GB/SD under 51 2 units Loss
Balt/Pitt under 42.4 4 units Loss
Both teams have been terrible ATS, SD is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and Oakland is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. I only interesting stat to me is both teams defensively are giving up a lot of points on average this year. SD has allowed an averaged of 26 pts per games and Oak has allowed an average of 27 pts per game. I see this game going over the total even though the trend support the under. SD/Oakland over 47 4 units
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS this year and are a home dog playing a division rival in Pittsburgh who is coming off a lost to Baltimore. Cinci 6-2 record has been questioned because they have only beat 1 team with a winning record to date. I think there is value in the number they are getting at home. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road. Cincinnati +4 2 units
Houston has the top ranked defense traveling to Tampa Bay who has been struggling with a 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Houston has found a way to win with Andre Johnson out, that formula has been Foster/Tate. Houston has the 3rd ranked rushing attack averaging 155 yards per game. TB is allowing 4.9 per rush and 132 rushing YPG. Houston -3.5 2 units
Tennessee is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games, Carolina who is coming off their bye posting a 5-3 record ATS this year. Tennessee's 2 wins in their last 5 games were against the Colts and the Browns, CJ is struggling along with the Titan's 27th ranked offense but Cam is leading his 5th ranked offense in total yards. Carolina -2.5 2 units
The 49ers have the best record ATS so far this year, 7-0-1. Eli and the Giants have been on a roll as of last, winning 4 out of their last 5 games but 2-2-1 ATS. NYG and SF are averaging 25 pts a game but the difference is SF D is only allowing 15 pts a game. 49ers -4 2 units
adding....
Dallas and Buffalo have been struggling ATS as of late. Dallas is 0-2 ATS in the last 2 games and Buffalo is 2-2-1 ATS in the last 5 games and coming off a divisional lost to the Jets. Dallas will attempt to make Buffalo one dimensional taking away the run and releasing Ware (NFL sack leader). Dallas has found a running game which should help Romo with pass action opportunities to throw down field. Dallas -5 2 units
KC should rebound from an embarrassing lost to Miami last week, KC is 5-3 ATS this year Tebow is 2-1 ATS as a starter, alternating covers (covered last week against Oak). KC is home again and have been holding their opponents to 16 pts per game, it should be low scoring game. KC -3 2 units
Week 10
SD/Oakland over 47 4 units Loss
Cincy +4 2 units Loss
Houston -3.5 2 units Win
Carolina -2.5 Loss
49ers -4 2 units Win
KC-3 2 units Loss
Dallas-5 2 units Win
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NFL picks 2011 MDM
Week 1
Well let's get back on the horse tonight and start chipping away. I'm going to keep it simple.
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