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Love The Action
NFL 9/8/11 (Week 1)
Play #1
NO/GB under (48) 1x (Locked) LOSS
I think we have a great shot at cashing this for our first play of the season. First, the whole world is on the over with over 80% of all bets going that way. I have this one at 45, but the public has bet it all the way up past the key number of 47 which gives us some great value here. Everyone knows these are two of the best offenses in the league, but I don't think everyone realizes how great the defenses are in this game. Both defenses were top ten NFL in both points allowed and yards allowed last year. Generally, offenses struggle at the start of the season and it takes longer for them to work out the kinks. This gives the defense the advantage. We have a great league trend going back to 2006-07 season where the opening season Thur night game ended under the posted total each of those years. I expect that again tonight. If you look at the individual matchups on the field, NO's receiver corps are hurting with Moore out and Colston's knee. That gives Woodson and co. a bit of an advantage as they can play more physical. On the other side, Jermichael Finley did not practice this weak with a bum ankle and that could throw off the timing of Rogers against the quick blitzes of NO (one of the most frequent blitzing team in the league). I think everyone is expecting a ton of points tonight, but I expect both teams to try to establish the running game with Grant back for GB and NO trying to get their new Heisman winning rookie the ball as much as possible. I think we have a great public fade opportunity to start off the season and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)
Play #2
Steelers (+1.5) 1x (Locked)
This play is all about superiority of the Steelers offense and a slight edge to the Steelers defense. I don't give any credence to the dropoff trend of SB losers when it comes to the Steel Curtain. Look at the head to head matchups on offense and you will see the Steelers are equal to or just a bit better than the Raves and I expect that slight edge to prove itself in the final score at the end of the game. I contemplated the moneyline here, but when I was able to get the hook at my squarer local book, it sinched this play for me. Steelers have the better QB, the better group of WR's, equal RB's and a comprable offensive line. You can debate the defenses back and forth, but I think the Steelers defense is more athletic and I give them the edge. In his career, Roethlisburger has owned the Ravens and I expect that dominance to continue because the Ravens are just a slight notch below the Steelers. I'm rolling with the Steel curtain for 1x.
Play #3
Seattle/SF under (37.5) 1x (Locked)
I also like the 49'ers a lot in this game and I may play them as well. However, I like that number at 5 and not 5.5 and we'll wait to see what happens with that line. Plus, I am trying to play conservatively at the start of the season with respect to the total amount of my plays and I have to go with the play where I think I have the biggest edge. In this matchup, the edge is with the total and the inability of Seattle to score on SF's defense. I expect SF's linebacking corps to dominate this matchup in limiting the intermediate passing game, putting pressure on Jackson and limiting his scrambling ability. Bottom line is that I just don't see either team "breaking out" offensively. The niners are installing a new offense, but should be able to run the ball consistently over one of the weaker run defenses. This game is all about Gore, who I expect to run for over 100 yards and a couple scores in a 21-7 win for the niners. However, the niners passing game is still questionable because of an inability of Smith to find some rhythm with his receivers in the preseason. I think the niners run the ball to victory, but struggle through the air which is the reason this one stays under the posted total. I have no faith in Tavaris Jackson and think he provides us with some nice fade material early in the season. I'm rolling with the under in this matchup for 1x. Good luck.
NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)
Play #4
NE/Mia over (45.5) 1x (Locked)
It's tough not to think New England finds offensive success against the Dolphins on Monday night. No need for a big writeup on this play. NE is finely oiled offensive machine, but has it's weaknesses or at least question marks defensively. Miami boasts some dangerous offensive weapons that can score through the big play (think Bush, Marshall, Thomas, Hartline). I just see New England scoring 35 and the Dolphins getting another 17 points minimum to push this one over and I'm rolling that way for 1x.
NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)
Play #5
Tennessee (+2) 1x (Locked)
Tennessee is just the better team and once I was able to get +2 on this one, I had to jump at it. Just like we are fading Tavaris Jackson, we are also fading Luke McCown in this matchup. I will take Matt Hasleback's experience over McCown any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Other than Jones-Drew, Lewis and maybe Thomas on the outside, there's not much about the Jags offense to scare you. Plus, they still need someone to throw the ball and then you get back to McCown or a rookie. On defense, the Jags might be without Kampan, who is the main pass rushing force for their defense. At the very least, he will be limited against an offense that boasts CJ and Javon Ringer out of the backfield. With Britt on the outside with Washington on the other side, I think the offensive edge clearly goes to the Titans. Because I also give the Titans the defensive edge based on the secondary's ability to shut down the Jags receiving corp, I am going to take Tennessee for 1x. Good luck.
Play #6
TB (-1) 1x (Locked)
No time for writeups, busy with all the NFL and MLB action today. I will, however, post all my plays as I make them and then come back to provide my thoughts (if time) before the games. In this game, I am not convinced by all the Detroit love. TB is an up and coming team playing at home and we get great value at -1. I am high on Detroit this year, but I don't think they win this first game on the road. I like Freeman and the Bucs here for 1x. Good luck.
NFL 9/12/11 (Week 1 cont.)
Play #7
Oakland/Denver over (40.5) 1x (Locked)
Can't wait till Monday for this one. Gotta jump on this one now before it crosses the key number of 41. More to come....
NFL 9/11/11 (Week 1 cont.)
Play #8
Cincinnati/Cleveland under (35.5) 1x (Locked)
This is a larger card than I though, but I'm finding quite a bit of value compared to my numbers. Therefore, I have to jump on it. More to come...
Play #9
Chiefs (-4) 1x (Locked)
If this was not week 1, I would go larger on this play. I just don't see enough improvement in the Bills to warrant a -4 line. Assuming Cassel plays as reported, I have this one at -6. I'm going with the value on the Chiefs at home for 1x. Good luck.
Play #10
SF (-5) 1x (Locked)
Once I saw this number, I had to take it. As I stated in my writeup on the total in this one, I am fading Tavaris Jackson. I don't think Seattle has the guns to keep up with SF on either side of the ball. Situationally, the 9'ers are in a better
Play #11
Eagles/Rams over (44) 1x (Locked)
I generally prefer unders early in the season, especially in the first week, but I think we see a surprising surge of offense from the Rams. The Rams will keep up with Philly's high powered offense and I expect them to be a barking dog today. Philly may cover, but it will be close game with each team scoring at least three TD's. Good luck.
Play #12
Minny/SD over (43.5) 1x (Locked)
Should have taken this earlier, but once I was below the key number of 44 I had to jump on the overs that have been hitting. Should have followed my earlier leans with the Buf/KC over as well, so didn't want to miss out on this one. Good luck.
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