[Kev the Brit]

From JM:

The NFL bet that has never lost in 89 years happens TOMORROW 9/8! If you don't bet on this game now, you are throwing money away:

NFL - Betting against the Super Bowl champs – Winning the NFL Super Bowl is a remarkable achievement. One can develop a theory that once a new season starts, any team that plays against the defending Super Bowl champ will be more motivated to win than usual. Therefore, would it be a good idea to bet against the previous Super Bowl winner for the first 6 weeks of the season?
This is an angle that has a lot of merit because it definitely has an effect on player motivation. Players are more inspired to win when they’re up against the defending champion, and will often play harder as a result. Back-testing this theory over the years will give you the results that such a system will yield about 55% winners.
Remember, as long as you can win more than 52.4% of your bets (assuming the odds are -110), then you’re in profit over the long run. A winning rate of 55% is well sufficient for a winning betting system.
So there you go – make sure that you bet against the NFL Super Bowl champion on the spread for the first 6 weeks of every season, and you’ll be way up in profits over long term – even if you know nothing about sports!
Now, what about a staking plan? An A-B-C staking plan as I’ve outlined previously can make the system super-effective! Why? Because if the Super Bowl champ manages to cover the spread in week 1 (thus making your [A] bet loses), then their opponent in week 2 becomes even more motivated to win!
And if the champ covers the spread in both their first 2 games, then their 3rd opponent becomes super-motivated to win! By following an A-B-C staking system, betting against the most recent Super Bowl winner on the spread in the first 3 weeks of the season (only betting on the 2nd week if the first week loses against the spread, and only betting on the 3rd week if both the 1st and 2nd week lose against the spread, increasing your stake every time), you would have won each and every single one of these 3-game betting series in the entire history of the NFL! In the NFL, it’s recommended to buy 1 point if your team is an underdog of exactly +2.5 or +6.5, and buy a ˝ point if your team is an underdog of exactly +3 or +7.

Seems like the smart money will be on NOS +4.5

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

If anyone wants to follow JM's regular NFL system, go here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nfl-handic...-modified.html

on3 runs a quality thread over there

[xgame]

[NZT-48]

hey Kev or anyone for that matter have you gotten the official email from JM on what line he says we should bet for tomm game? I got the line at +4.5 Saints just wanna cross reference that with everyone else before the final bet is layed if u know what I mean b/c NFL get posted early and change throughout the week

[Kev the Brit]

hey Kev or anyone for that matter have you gotten the official email from JM on what line he says we should bet for tomm game? I got the line at +4.5 Saints just wanna cross reference that with everyone else before the final bet is layed if u know what I mean b/c NFL get posted early and change throughout the week

I bought this system from him 2 years ago and he has never sent me an e-mail with the weekly pick. Everything we need to know is in the pdf above. I'm already on NOS at +4.5.

[NZT-48]

I bought this system from him 2 years ago and he has never sent me an e-mail with the weekly pick. Everything we need to know is in the pdf above. I'm already on NOS at +4.5.

gotcha thanks I remember u telling me that but dont get why u never sends u the play oh well we all know what it is but its the fact that I'd like to make 100% sure what line it is we are supposed to bet on b/c I dont like the idea of saying its +5 or +4.5 or whatever u know.....also dont like buying unecessary pts either this happened in the 1st play of last yr as well

as we all know NFL systems u have to be a lot more patient b/c theres only one play a week so if this A bet doesnt get it done then we have to wait til the 18th for the B bet know what I mean

[BetGrinder]

isn't the system already losing power in mlb (this season) and NBA (last year)???

[DuncHen22]

Sounds great, thanks!

[GunShard]

Saints main receiver Lance Moore is injured and not playing. I call BS here.

[loopydude11]

i'd start the A bet next week...

[Kev the Brit]

Well, as in recent years, the A Bet lost. But, a system is a system.

Week 2 (Sun 9/18), the B bet will be:

Carolina Panthers ATS (v Green Bay Packers) - risk 2.34 units to win 2.1 units (if additional points not required).

Kev

[Daveyboy]

New Orleans +anything-less-than 9 points was a muggish play

[NZT-48]

yeah the Saints just stunk it up is all they had multiple opp. to score to cover but whatever like Kev says on to the 18th for the B bet

[chopperocker]

Well, as in recent years, the A Bet lost. But, a system is a system.

Week 2 (Sun 9/18), the B bet will be:

Carolina Panthers ATS (v Green Bay Packers) - risk 2.34 units to win 2.1 units (if additional points not required).

Kev

i took GBN -4.5 as a play for some of my contests, but my money was on GNB moneyline. what do you think the GNB @ CAR line will be? i set my early line at GBN -12.5

[hey buddy]

i took GBN -4.5 as a play for some of my contests, but my money was on GNB moneyline. what do you think the GNB @ CAR line will be? i set my early line at GBN -12.5

I would think it would be 14 at least.

[Andy3568]

I saw the line at Carolina +10. I would have thought it would be more.

[JaymzPhoenix]

Seems to be +10 at all bookies, so is this the play? Carolina +10

[dlunc3]

ughh... im bailin... good luck!

[h00dini]

so carolina is the "B: bet?

[NZT-48]

yeah does anyone get or have the official email form JM for the B Bet today? I know Kev u dont anymore which is bizarre but just wanted to check so I know what JM is saying the line is my book currently now has it at +11 which is good

[h00dini]

So now that Carolina won, does the system end? Do you keep taking every team who plays green bay?

[Andy3568]

So now that Carolina won, does the system end? Do you keep taking every team who plays green bay?

The way I understand it, you can play the system one of two ways:

(1) Bet one unit per game for each of the first six games against GB

or

(2) Bet the first three games as a chase.

If you're following Option 1, keep betting. If you're following Option 2, stop.

He's not really clear on how to bet it, but that's what I take from the write up Kev posted at the beginning of this thread.

[Kev the Brit]

My take on it is that the system runs for the 1st 6 weeks of the regular season. We won at week 2, with 4 weeks to go, therefore we start a 2nd chase, which might go to the 5th week, and the system must then stop. However, if the 2nd chase wins at the A Bet we can then start a 3rd chase on weeks 4, 5 & 6.

Does this make sense?

Kev

[bruloc]

I agree with you Kev. The system have 55% winners ATS in 1st 6 weeks, so we can expect 2 more wins.

[Kev the Brit]

Week 3 of 6:

Sun 9/25, 4.15 EDT:
Chicago Bears (A Bet) ATS v Green Bay Packers

Current spread (Wed 9/21): +3.5

System record 2011:
1-0

good luck!

Kev

[NZT-48]

Week 3 of 6:

Sun 9/25, 4.15 EDT:
Chicago Bears (A Bet) ATS v Green Bay Packers

Current spread (Wed 9/21): +3.5

System record 2011:
1-0

good luck!

Kev

really Kev? I thought we were done and yes I know I have read the pdf file as well but have u went back and backtested to see how it has went when u do 2 3 game chases in the 1st 6 games agains the Super Bowl champs?

[Kev the Brit]

really Kev? I thought we were done and yes I know I have read the pdf file as well but have u went back and backtested to see how it has went when u do 2 3 game chases in the 1st 6 games agains the Super Bowl champs?

Good point. I'll check the records and get back asap

[NZT-48]

Good point. I'll check the records and get back asap

ok cool sir thanks let me know if u find out before todays game goes off at 4:15est

[Kev the Brit]

I've checked the records for 2010 and 2009 and the chase system worked for the 1st 6 weeks.

I'll do some more backtesting in good time for you to make a decision later today.

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

I've gone back to 2005/06 SB champs (ie the early 2006 season) to see if the system works over the first 6 games and its almost perfect. The only exception was the Colts in Oct 2007, when they won the last 3 games ATS of their first 6 games. They did not play in Week 6 of the reg season, which might be significant. I couldn't get the stats any further back.

Kev

[NZT-48]

I've gone back to 2005/06 SB champs (ie the early 2006 season) to see if the system works over the first 6 games and its almost perfect. The only exception was the Colts in Oct 2007, when they won the last 3 games ATS of their first 6 games. They did not play in Week 6 of the reg season, which might be significant. I couldn't get the stats any further back.

Kev

ok then well I just got an recent email from JM talking about if the next bet in the series loses he will refund some monies for your bet blah blah so does that mean what?......I mean semi confused how long do we keep betting against the Packers? all yr round? lol seriously?

[Kev the Brit]

Week 4 of 6:

Sun 10/2, 4.15 EDT:
Denver Broncos (B Bet) ATS @ Green Bay Packers
Current spread (Fri 9/30): +12.5


System record 2011:
1-0
(1 series pending. No more series after this)

Good luck!

Kev

[NZT-48]

Week 4 of 6:

Sun 10/2, 4.15 EDT:
Denver Broncos (B Bet) ATS @ Green Bay Packers
Current spread (Fri 9/30): +12.5


System record 2011:
1-0
(1 series pending. No more series after this)

Good luck!

Kev

hey Kev are we 100% sure of these plays after the series has covered and then we rebet it again as a 3 game chase? I never heard of doing that or maybe didnt read it as deeply as I should have but just wanted to see if anyone is actually still on his official email list for this particular system thanks

[Kev the Brit]

Week 5 of 6:

Sun 10/9, 8.30 EDT:
Atlanta Falcons (C Bet) ATS v Green Bay Packers
Current spread (Thu 10/6): +6, opened at +4.5

System record 2011:
1-0
(1 series pending. No more series after this)

Good luck!
Kev

[h00dini]

the system changes..........it stops after the first 3 weeks./