1. 09-01-11 11:40 PM #1
    No coincidences
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    NC picks '11

    As most of you know, I love home dogs. They were money makers last season.

    This thread will pretty much be dedicated to all home underdogs of less than 6 points and all road underdogs in the +1 to +2.5 range.

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  2. 09-02-11 12:16 AM #2
    JamesBrown
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    BOL this season NC. Love this time of year!
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  3. 09-02-11 08:43 AM #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by JamesBrown View Post
    BOL this season NC. Love this time of year!
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  4. 09-07-11 09:52 PM #4
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    Not a huge fan of teases, but what about a Saints +10.5/under 54 (-120) for Thursday?
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  5. 09-07-11 10:18 PM #5
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    Not a huge fan of teases, but what about a Saints +10.5/under 54 (-120) for Thursday?
    I have this game capped as GB -3.5 / 44 points. It just feels like a coinflip to me, with the Saints poised to bounce back this season and all the pressure being on the Packers. I think I find the +200 on the Saints a more tempting option.

    Good luck this season
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  6. 09-07-11 10:30 PM #6
    BigDan
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    Quote Originally Posted by No coincidences View Post
    As most of you know, I love home dogs. They were money makers last season.

    This thread will pretty much be dedicated to all home underdogs of less than 6 points and all road underdogs in the +1 to +2.5 range.


    these things pretty irrelevant to me but just happened to read this the other day then saw you mention you liked to play dog of less than 3, was kinda strange how it worked out so figured id show you.....


    With about a month to go until kickoff, we have four games that are currently listed at 2 ½-points or less, and a few others that are right on the border. I went back to take a look at what happens when there are four or more games listed under 2 ½-points in Week 1. Since 1997 this has occurred five times, and the favorite has covered 60% of those games (12-8). If you were to have bet every favorite in each one of those five weeks then you would have had three winning weeks, one losing week, and broken even once.
    Since this statistic is only made up of 20 games I wanted to expand the search. If we look at only those first weeks where there have been at least 2 such point spreads on the board, then we end up with 36 results. By betting the favorite in each of those 36 games you would have ended up with the same exact win rate of 60% (21-14-1.)



    like i said i dont read much into many treads but thought it was funny when i stopped by after reading this the other day.....

    really like my Rams +4.5 or more. You know im not a homer, much of one anyway.

    GL this season.
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  7. 09-07-11 11:42 PM #7
    bigsmitty
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    Good luck NC. Obtuse...classic.
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  8. 09-08-11 12:41 AM #8
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    Interesting stuff Dan.

    SK -- I'm taking a hard look at the Saints. Trying to decide if I want to be daring on the ML or just take the +4.
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  9. 09-08-11 12:42 AM #9
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    Key is to tread lightly early with the NFL. High volume of bets makes this sport the sharpest line-wise in the world. Soft spots are out there, but you have to dig deep. Without anything to go on early, it's not easy.

    For now, I'm looking at the Saints, Colts, Ravens and Jets. Possibly Tampa (and yes, I'm a Lions fan).
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  10. 09-08-11 12:55 AM #10
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    Here are the leans I've scribbled out:

    IND +9
    NO +4
    TB -1.5
    NYJ -4
    StL +4.5
    NYG -3
    BAL -1
    CAR +7
    DEN -3
    CHI +3
    MIA +7
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  11. 09-08-11 05:59 AM #11
    Hoopster17
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    BOL on the season No Coin
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  12. 09-08-11 06:31 PM #12
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    I'm a glutton for punishment when it comes to unders....

    NO/GB under 48 (1U)

    Lean Saints, but I can't get it at 5 at my book so I'll pass.
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  13. 09-08-11 06:32 PM #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoopster17 View Post
    BOL on the season No Coin
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  14. 09-08-11 06:44 PM #14
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    Let's get that under...good luck!
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  15. 09-08-11 07:23 PM #15
    BigDan
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    like the under but was to scared to play it, last year got me shook. instead ill take the defending champs to do what defending champs have been doing since '98, winning their home opener.....GL bro
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