[frostno98]

Been doing this two years in a row, and my thorough home grown analyzing of this team has been right on par majority of the time. In 2009 I predicted the Broncos to win less than 7.5 Future wins, but they got 8. Despite losing that 2009 future play, I felt I made the right call, because the Broncos luckily won 3 different games with some freakish fluke endings that gave the Broncos an astounding 6-0 start. The 6-0 start was too much to over come, but in reality the should of had only 5-6 wins. In 2010, I made the same call, with Denver winning less than 7.5 games, the total future of wins dropped to 6.5 before week one. And still covered easily with Denver going 4-12.

In the 2011, the Broncos has brought in John Fox as Head Coach. A proven leader, that has lead his team to the Superbowl in 2003 and the NFC championship in 2005. Despite Fox 5-11 record with Carolina in 2010, causing him to be fired, I felt that it was deceptive since he had way too many injuries last year. Fox is a defensive guru, and I have confidence in him to make this Broncos team better than last year. They should be able to pull out 6-7 wins, and maybe 8.

Offense Report
The best option at QB for Denver is Kyle Orton, if the Broncos wants to win a few games. Orton should be much more comfortable and relax with this team now that he has been there for two years. Orton's a decent passer, and will have a very reliable trio of Wide Receivers to back him up. He will have the acrobatic Pro Bowler Brandon Lloyd, and a potential superstar in the making phenom Demaryius Thomas playing the other side. While the speedy and dangerous Eddie Royal will be in the slot. These three Receivers should be able to dissect many defenses. The weakness of the Broncos will be their line, and will be greatly dependent on the health of former All-Pro Ryan Clady who missed most of the 2010 season. The Broncos are also highly stacked at running back position this time around, unlike last year where they were shorthanded most of the season and were forced to rely on Kyle Orton's passing game. They were ranked 26th overall in the rushing game because of that. This year they will be boasting former USC star CJ Gable, starter Knowshon Moreno, and Ravens vet Willie Mcgahee. The running should easily be much better than last year, and the Broncos offense should be more dynamic. This offense should be more than capable of holding their own against most defenses in the NFL.

Defense Report
This is the team's glaring weakness. In 2010 they were dead last, ranked at 32 overall. With 25th in pass defense, 31st in rush defense, and dead last in points, giving up an insane 29.4 points per game. Those stats are attributed to many things, including the team flat out quitting on Josh McDaniel's late in games because he was so clueless in making any adjustment. John Fox, a defense minded Head Coach should greatly correct those problems. Also back this year is the 2009 NFL sack leader(17) and All-Pro Elvis Dumervil, who should greatly help this dreaded defense who had a measly 23 total sacks. Dumervil should be an instant impact to the D-line, along side upcoming player Wesley Woodyard. The Broncos strengths will be their speedy linebacker corp lead by leading tackler veteran DJ Williams, and the highly touted first rounder second overall pick Von Miller. The biggest question mark on this Broncos defense is the secondary. The Broncos corners are still set with both starters Champ Bailey and Andre Goodman performing admirable last year. The Broncos secondary overall are very inexperience and unknown though, with the aging Brian Dawkins leading the way at safety. How the Broncos defense performs will greatly determine how tough it would take for the Broncos to get over 5.5 wins this year. I believe they are more than capable of doing it, based on what I've seen on the 2011 schedule so far.

[frostno98]

1)Raider in Denver-Win
John Fox will instill motivation and confidence back in this team, unlike the very inexperience clueless McDaniels. They were swept by the Raiders last year, and are looking for some pay back in this traditionally tough Rivalry between the two. I like Denver taking it at home in the Opener.

2)Bungals in Denver-Win
The bungals are a very terrible team. Don't see it happening in Mile high.

3)Broncos at Tennessee-Lose
The Titans are just a better overall team, and Chris Johnson will pose a ton of problem against one of the worst run defense in the league last year.

4)Broncos at Packer-Lose
The Broncos should not even show up for this game, it's going to be ugly.

5)Chargers in Denver-Lose
The Chargers has something Denver doesn't have, Phillip Rivers. They will lose their first home game here.

6)BYE

7)Broncos at Miami-Lose
Miami is a good young team that is continuing to improve. This one will be close, but Miami wins by a field goal.

8)Lions in Denver-Win
Don't see this Dome team winning on grass against anyone, especially in the dense air of Mile High.

9)Broncos at Raiders-Lose
Raiders take the 2nd game at home and split the series.

10)Broncos at Kansas City-Lose
Arrowhead as always been tough for any Denver team, including them Superbowl's John Elway lead teams.

11)Jets in Denver-Wobbler/Can see either team win
This might be one of those game where the Jets are caught off guard like last year. The Jets has been very fortuitous last with Sanchez, in squeaking several late wins where they could of easily lost. Should catch up to them this year if that happens again. Especially with Sanchez dislike of the cold.

12)Broncos at San Diego-Lose
Chargers will playing for the Division Title, and the Broncos will be just a minor obstacle in the way.

13)Broncos in Minnesota-Lose
Donovan McNabb rejuvenating the Vikings offense and Adrian Peterson will be too much for the Broncos at home.

14)Bears in Denver-Wobbler/Can see either team win
Jay Cutler will be returning home with a better team. Will the INT Jay-C show up by trying to do too much or will the good one show up. One things for certain, the entire mile high city will be raucous for this one, especially the Broncos defense. This game will be interesting.

15)Patriots in Denver-Lose
Brady mastery in the passing game will carve this team up for a good win.

16)Denver in Buffalo-win
If their is one road game the Broncos might win this year, it's going to be this one, against a equal horrible team.

17)Chiefs in Denver-Win
Chiefs were overrated last year, and won a few games thanks to special team. They will be struggling to get in the playoffs this year, and the Broncos will gladly deliver the final punch to knock them out.

[CBASS]

Nice assessment! GL to you bro!

[a4u2fear]

Taking the under. You got a new coach, the worst coach from last year. That was the dumbest thing I'd ever seen.

[Jive]

Great luck to you. I think Denver is a big time sleeper this year, perhaps the surprise of the NFL.

[Bengals28]

Bengals will win that game week 2. Broncos defense sucks donkey dick.

[pm4e]

I wish the Broncos would wear the orange alternates against the Bears instead of the Lions.

[McBa1n]

Actually, nice breakdown. Although I'm really not sure if John Fox (an EXCELLENT coach) can turn that D around so quickly. It's been ravaged by the last regime. It's a shame, to give away so many franchise type players and picks

The biggest risk is if Denver is in the w/l situation you listed. Come 3-4 weeks to go in the season, there's a chance mr awesome, erm Tebow, will get starts. It could actually happen sooner. I agree that Denver is definitly capable of getting 6 wins with their schedule, it's just it scares the crap out of me that Tebow could be starting over a quality starter like Air Orton (whom I think is a great starter). If Tebow starts, the season is over and they may pick off 1 win with him under center. The kid flat out is not an NFL QB.

Unfortunatly, I think the play here is a toss up, but most likely U 5.5 for Denver, just because of the Tebow thing. I hope Fox does what he does and keeps Tebow on the bench. If Fox thinks you can play, you're gonna play. He hates appeasing the front office, like he had to do with Claussen. I'm pretty sure Elway is not a fan of Tebow, as well.

[Huego]

thanks for the write up, it was a good read.

so you think losing josh mcdaniels won't effect the offensive output compared to last year?

[frostno98]

thanks for the write up, it was a good read.

so you think losing josh mcdaniels won't effect the offensive output compared to last year?

Most of Denver's yardage were from passing game. Many of them coming in garbage time when the opposing team were playing prevent defense in the 4th. So they won't miss anything from Josh McDaniels. Plus he was a poor in game adjustor, very predictable, and never changes his game plan despite it not working. The addition of CJ Gable and Willis Mcgahee to the running game should be huge, since Orton has not benefited from a strong stable running game since he's been in Denver.

[McBa1n]

Most of Denver's yardage were from passing game. Many of them coming in garbage time when the opposing team were playing prevent defense in the 4th. So they won't miss anything from Josh McDaniels. Plus he was a poor in game adjustor, very predictable, and never changes his game plan despite it not working. The addition of CJ Gable and Willis Mcgahee to the running game should be huge, since Orton has not benefited from a strong stable running game since he's been in Denver.

I'm concerned about their running attack. We know Orton can throw the ball and do a strong job on turnovers. Fox' style of coaching is very simple, very predictable and what he wants is to not give games away. I'm interested to see his philosiphy with this Denver team, because they have a very nice offense, health pending. If it's 3rd and 12? Fox wants to run the football. That's just what he wants. No stupid turnovers. Actually, Orton is a great fit for Fox, because he's not one to really force plays. We got to see what he's capable of as far as slinging it around the park last year, he can do it, but that's not really where Orton is best. If anything, it will help him on draw plays and keeping safeties honest early in the season because he was gunning it all over the park last year.

But back on point. I don't know Gable, so I can't comment. McGahee? I am not sure where he is at in his career. He's not really a 'factor' back, but he can make a big play here and there. But Moreno? There was a lot of mumbling he might not make the team before preseason started. I know that sounds crazy. The kid has some wiggle and not a lot of durability. That's tough. It's a shame Buckhalter can't stay healthy, either, if he could, he woulda been a great fit in Denver this year... No matter. He's not on the team.

I really need to see more of Denver this preseason to have a full opinion of what they are capable of. If they have even a respectable running game, they will be in the hunt. If they struggle - and the way Fox football is played, he's going to run them into the ground anyway. I think if Fox has the trust in Orton, the running game will improve by setting up the run via the pass. That is how they should do it, but we won't know until week 1.

That D is freaking brutal. Bad news almost daily about the D Line, which is really about as bad as there is in the NFL. I like watching Dummerville, but he's not really an end. You can run all day on his side of the field. He gives max effort and does make plays, but he's not like a Jared Allen type of guy that can play pass or run d (when he wants to). I think Denver is going to struggle with their secondary depth, also. I think their personnel means they're going to have to play more of a 'shell' style of D, but who knows. Fox will do what he has to, to try to get the most out of what he has. There just ain't a lot on that side of the ball. I am interested to see more of them this weekend in preseason, but I think overall, that D is going to ruin them and then there will be no choice but to bring in Tebow, which will compound the problem... GL on your prediction. Until I make my final prediction (after week 3 of preseason) I'm sticking with my lean of under.

[frostno98]

CJ Gable was a stud at USC, I take then you didn't see much of PAC-10 football. Fox got 5 wins last year with a worst injury plague Panthers team than this 2011 Broncos. The Broncos last year team which was worst, because they were missing Dumervil, a running game, had a Juvenile clueless coach and an Interim coach, still managed to muster out 4 wins. I'm just not convinced Fox would do any worst, considering what he has on his table. He should at the very least get 4 wins, and asking for two more wins is really not that much.

[surffreak]

dont see denver winning more than 5

[Huego]

CJ Gable was a stud at USC, I take then you didn't see much of PAC-10 football. Fox got 5 wins last year with a worst injury plague Panthers team than this 2011 Broncos. The Broncos last year team which was worst, because they were missing Dumervil, a running game, had a Juvenile clueless coach and an Interim coach, still managed to muster out 4 wins. I'm just not convinced Fox would do any worst, considering what he has on his table. He should at the very least get 4 wins, and asking for two more wins is really not that much.

Panthers only had two wins last year. They beat the 49ers and the Cardinals...

and the 49ers were leading in that game until alex smith got injured.

[frostno98]

Panthers only had two wins last year. They beat the 49ers and the Cardinals...

and the 49ers were leading in that game until alex smith got injured.

Your right, Fox had the worst record last year. Was looking at the wrong sh1t on covers. Regardless, still love my play though

[McBa1n]

CJ Gable was a stud at USC, I take then you didn't see much of PAC-10 football. Fox got 5 wins last year with a worst injury plague Panthers team than this 2011 Broncos. The Broncos last year team which was worst, because they were missing Dumervil, a running game, had a Juvenile clueless coach and an Interim coach, still managed to muster out 4 wins. I'm just not convinced Fox would do any worst, considering what he has on his table. He should at the very least get 4 wins, and asking for two more wins is really not that much.

Yeah, I don't like Pac 10 ball at all. I watch a bit of Cal and that's about it for that conference. Pac 10 isn't as exciting to me as the Big 10, Big East or SEC... And even then, I still don't watch a ton of college ball until later in the year when NFL prospects are identified.

I'm not going to kill Fox for his work in Carolina last year. I really really really think Carolina has a bottom 5 front office and a bottom 5 owner. Fox was an every-other year winner in spite of really terrible ownership. It was sad to watch one of the top 3 PLAYERS in the NFL in Peppers have 0 interest until he HAD to play, and then play like he is capable last year with the Bears (he was, IMO, the league MVP). Yes, Carolina had injuries, as do all teams. It's part of the game. Fox's heart wasn't in it because he knew he was a dead man walking with Claussen starting last year (a player he did not want). Heck, he even started Brian St Pierre to show up the front office instead of Tony Pike (who is an ok prospect). Brian St Pierre? Really? Just saying, what Fox did last year means 0. The year prior, it's all on Delhomme.

I like your logic, I like your reasoning. There are very few people that have confidence in John Fox like I do. It's entirely plausible. I do need more study, though.

Thing is, though, McDaniels and that whole front office MAULED the Broncos. I'd love to go over player transaction by player transaction - what he did to that team was DEVASTATING and far and away as bad as I've ever seen in the NFL, short of the Herschell Walker deal. It's sooo hard to compete in the NFL when you're giving away 1st rounders for Alphonso Smith or extra picks for Tebow. The Smith drafting made me get outta my chair and go whaaaaaaa? With a couple of really nice prospects on the board at corner. The Tebow deal? Horrible. The Cutler deal to trade up to get him? One of Shanahan's best moves - the kid fit out there... Whatever, what's done is done.

Also, I really have to point out Dummerville's overall ability/weakness. There's only a couple of players like him that are INCREDIBLE in beating pass D blockers, but are mostly easily handled by whatever player picks him up in the run game. I love the guy, he's max effort, but he's really lacking as a complete player. He is a tremendous improvement over what Denver had by a LOT, the guy is a football player... But to be fair, his impact is on passing downs and rarely at other times. I've seen enough of him on tape to be comfortable saying that.

Hey, I'm rooting for the Broncos to win a lot of ballgames. But I think at some point they are probably going to give Tebow a shot, which is low rent. Orton is an NFL starter. Since Denver didn't cut Tebow or Quinn (god, why would you keep Quinn, have you seen his 50 yard deep ball that is 10 yards outta bounds? God he is awefull), then I have to believe that someone is going to give either of those 2 a shot. Firstly, Quinn is barely a UFL backup at QB. Tebow? He's just another 'amazing' college player that has almost nothing that translates to the pro game.

If Denver keeps their current QB situation as is, then I'm almost certain their season will have issues, which is crap. Orton has done everything asked of him as a starter and been a winner in the league. I know he's no Elway, but the guy wins games. If Denver isn't winning, and they don't make the moves they should at QB, then it's hard to lock in an O/U bet. If they cut Quinn, I'd feel a LOT better about taking the OVER (it shows they are not married to horrible trades), if they cut Tebow, then I'd take the OVER and take that change to the bank. I think right now, there's too much uncertainty to say for sure, but likely, they will be picking really early next year. If Tebow starts, they are doomed, IMO.

STILL, I don't like fading your pick or your knowledge of Denver. That's what I see evaluating them right NOW. It could change in 2 weeks. It's rare to see a good write up of a team on these forums. In fact, I f'n love when it happens. Just don't ever let it get personal. It's all about making $$. I just wish more people like you wrote up their opinions and then defended them. I respect that a LOT.

[GunShard]

Did you ever go to see the Broncos at their training camp?

I went there a days ago. I didn't know they had 4 QBs, until I saw the 4th player there, lol.

[slacker00]

Good analysis. I do think Fox can fix the defense in one year, maybe not making it great but at least respectable. Also, if Fox has any kind of control over the situation, Orton will start most of the season. Maybe Tebow will get a look if the team starts out with a terrible record, but he'll get a quick hook from Fox if he can't hack it.

I hate to sound like a broken record, but the NFL is an 8-8 league. No matter how good or bad a team is, they each put 11 guys out there and they're all professsionals. 6 wins seems reasonable for this Broncos team that isn't playing in the toughest division or the toughest schedule by a long shot. For me the clincher is Orton & Fox, who are both proven leaders who can keep the team focussed.

[frostno98]

Kyle Orton and offense has been looking really impressive so far.

[BookiesBernanke]

Nice write-up. Thanks!

[iwantcougars]

i'm with you, ii think with a strong running game, and the defense will be a step better, but i cant see the jets losing to the broncos in 2011

[frostno98]

Prediction has been terrible, but it looks like they can do it, and maybe win the West

[frostno98]

bump 2011 prediction