[Sunde91]

Lines from 5Dimes

Chicago Total Wins Under 8.5 -125 (pinn -138, greek offboard, was -110)
3x to win 2.4

The luck runs out for a team that had a joke schedule last year and fluked to 11 wins and NFC Champ. Toughest road game was @NYG, got killed. PHI, Jets, NE all at home non-div games. Handed NFC Champ with Seattle at home after fluked into playoffs to begin with. All of that changes this year with a tough schedule.

Opponent / Bears projected spread (sportsbook.com has a lot of GOY lines) / win prob using spread/ML converter

ATL / +2.5 / 45.5%
@NO / +7 / 25%
GB / +3 / 41%
CAR / -8.5 / 80%
@DET / +2.5 / 45.5%
MINN / -5 / 68%
@TB / +3.5 / 35%
BYE
@PHI / +8.5 / 20%
DET / -3 / 59%
SD / +1 / 48.75%
@Oak / -2 / 53.5%
KC / -3 / 59%
@DEN / -2 / 53.5%
SEA / -5.5 / 69%
@GB / +8.5 / 20%
@MINN / +3 / 41%

Will be dogs in at least 9 games and could lose 1 out of @OAK, @DEN. Could start 0-3 and make under a virtual lock as they spiral to 6-10.

Cutler is a joke and will be more hated this year than ever. They let go TE Olsen, one of his top targets. Pressure is on Cutler and Lovie this year and they will let down huge after last year's fluke. Lovie will be gone.

7-9


Carolina Total Wins Under 4.5 -105 (pinn -102, greek +100)
3x to win 2.86

They are looking at a nightmare QB situation, the worst in the League, and a 1st time head coach has to deal with it. Start Clausen, start Newton, doesn't matter. Neither are NFL level. Would like to see Clausen start and do terrible, like last year, and they bring in Newton as the savior and he does as bad or worse.

Do they start a 23 yo QB who threw 52% his first year, 3x more INTS than TDs, with a 58 passer rating? Or a 22 yo QB who's all hype after 1 year in D1 College and totally unprepared mentally for NFL? Screwed no matter what they do.

Lockout hurt Carolina more than anyone. Rivera a 1st time head coach behind the ball with totally new players. No nucleus established, no continuity. Rivera brought in a new OC, Rob Chudzinski, who was a TE coach in SD. Only OC exp is 2 years in 07-08 with Browns. So he has about 6 weeks to implement an Offense from scratch, with 2 bums at QB to work with. The DC, Sean McDermott, is also new and was fired at Philly. He has 6 weeks to implement a Defense from scratch. This can really be a disaster.

Coming off 2-14 and the schedule is harder this year + shit QB + 1st time coach

@ARI / +5.5 / 31%
GB / +8 / 21%
JAX / +2 / 46.5%
@CHI / +8.5 / 20%
NO / +7 / 25%
@ATL / +13 / 11%
WASH / +1.5 / 47.5%
MINN / +3 / 41%
BYE
TENN / +1 / 48.75%
@DET / +7.5 / 22%
@IND / +10.5 / 14%
@TB / +8.5 / 20%
ATL / +7 / 25%
@HOU / +8.5 /20%
TB / +5.5 / 31%
@NO / +13 / 11%

Possible they could be a dog in every game, but they might end up a -1/-2 at home to a team like WASH or TENN.

Key game is week 3 vs. JAX. They lose that they will be deflated after starting 0-2, then 3 losses @CHI, NO, @ATL. Start 0-6 and their season is done.

Key stretch is WASH, MINN, BYE, TENN. TENN should be a win after bye, but if MINN beats them decently and they have 1 or 0 wins, and Hasslebeck is dealing, they will beat CAR. After that, it's the walk of death last 7 games where they get 1 win max.

3-13


SD -225 and GB -240 to win Divsions (+104.62 parlay)
3x to win 3.14

Pinn has SD -308, GB -283
Greek has SD -205, GB -185

SD doesnt start slow this year and wins the West. Rivers and Turner too experienced, too many years together now. They're coming hungry out of offseason after not making it last year Would be a massive failure to not win Div.


Two games with KC obv important. SD should be about -7 and sb.com has SD -2 in KC.


SD's schedule is difficult. Tough games @ NE (+5.5), @ Jets (+3), GB (PK), BALT (-3), @DET (-2). 10-6
KC schedule is harder. @DET, @IND, @NE, PITT, @CHI, @JETS, GB. 8-8/7-9

---

Rodgers wins the North this year for 1st time. Schedule is decent. Toughest games @ATL (-1), @SD (PK). The rest they are -3 or >.

Explained CHI. DET and MINN going nowhere with Stafford and McNaab at QB. One missed whole season and little exp, other washed up. DET looking at 8-8 and MINN 7-9. GB could underachieve and get 10-6 and win Div by 2 games

11-5/12-4

----



Green Bay to win Super Bowl XLVI +800 (Pinn +669, Greek +845, bookmaker +300 )
1x to win 8

GB is back with starting TE Finley (top 3 in the League), RB, SS, 2 DEs, some LBs all healthy. Last year IR was 15+ and they win 10 games and the Super Bowl with hardest non-Div schedule in NFL. @PHI, @ATL, @NE, @JETS, NYG. And Rodgers missed 1.5 games @DET, @NE that cost them 2 wins.

Rodgers is the best QB, at worst top 3. Explanation http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...fl.html?slf=15

Receiving core also among the best. Quality in every target. Jennings, Jones, Driver, Nelson, Finley. Randall Cobb out of Kentucky has shown promise and can have an impact as well.

They have a top 2 D Coordinator in League with Dom Capers, who has 20 years exp as DCoord and coached a top 5 D last year to SB in 2nd year with the team. Secondary is completely solid, 5th in pass D last year. Burnett is healthy now to start at SS. Collins at FS. Woodson and Williams at DBs is a top duo. Run D needs to improve from 18th last year.

Run game weak. Grant should help, but I doubt that much.

GB has talent to perform and experience to keep grounded and focused. The price is comparatively very good and they have at least as good a chance to win as the other favs (Pats +600, PHI +775).

[Sunde91]

Kansas City Total Wins Under 7.5 -105 (Greek -125)
3x to win 2.86


This is a gem I overlooked and now have to pay for by not getting a good line. Most have Under 8 instead (5d -165, Pinn -166). Didn't want to risk more than 3x so U 7.5 is the play.


2010 Bears are to NFC as 2010 Chiefs are to AFC


1) Chiefs are frauds who fluked their way to 10 wins in 2010. They had the 29th rated schedule. They played 2 games against teams with a winning record for the entire season. SD, then @Indy, lost. This team had such luck they played the NFC West, which they swept. They already play in the shit AFC West. For their team from the AFC North and East, they played the Bills and Browns, to gift them 2 more wins (barely beat both). Their estimated wins was 8.0 http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff. This is a complete and utter joke, probably worse than the Bears.


2) Luck runs out, now have the hardest schedule in Football. This schedule will expose and embarrass them this year. They play the NFC North, AFC East, @IND/PITT for AFC South/North. Complete opposite of cake schedule last year. They are done.


3) Charlie Weis out at OC. Charlie is a solid OC who works well with QBs. He helped Cassel to a career year with 27 TDs, 7 INTs, and a 93 rating. The year before that, Cassel had 16 TDs/16 INTs with a 70 rating and the Chiefs went 4-12. Chiefs also brought in League clown Jim Zorn for QB Coach. This guy was a failure as HC at WASH and got fired from BALT as QB coach after just 1 season. The new OC, Bill Muir, is 69 years old and hasn't been OC in 3 years. Now he has 6 weeks to implement a whole Offense from scratch. This will all be hard on Cassel to repeat last year's performance. In preseason start at BALT, he went 6/14 (42%) with a 59 rating. They were 17th in efficiency last year and it will go down from there.


4) Perfect Parallel to 07-09 Dolphins. KC will complete the cycle that Fins went through 07-09. Fins 1-15 in 07, Chiefs 4-12 in 09. Fins turn it around and go 11-5 in 08 after playing a cake schedule with AFC West and NFC West, EXACTLY like the 10-6 2010 Chiefs. In 2009, Fins dropped to 7-9 after the schedule got tougher, though not as tough as the Chiefs’ schedule this year. The parallel is a match. When an unproven team has a break out year and wins conference, mostly because of a soft schedule, after a terrible season the year prior, they will crash back down once it gets tougher. And it can’t get any tougher for the Chiefs.


Opponent / Chiefs Spread / Win prob

BUFF / -7 / 75%
@DET / +4 / 35%
@SD / +9.5 / 19%
MINN / -3 / 59%
@IND / +6.5 / 28%
BYE
@OAK / +2.5 / 45%
SD / +2 / 46%
MIA / -3 / 59%
DEN / -6.5 / 72%
@NE / +11 / 13%
PITT / +2 / 46%
@CHI / +4 / 35%
@NYJ / +8.5 / 20%
GB / +4 / 35%
OAK / -4.5 / 33%
@DEN / +1 / 49%

We are looking at dogs in 12 games with the toughest schedule in league. They have a stretch where they got @NE, PITT, @CHI, @NYJ, GB. That's 4-5 losses alone. They should get swept by SD, split OAK/DEN. That's 8-9 losses now. Then there's games @DET, @IND, MIA, MINN. They lose at least 2 of those.

6-10/5-11

[Sunde91]

CAR U is +110 now, got killed
CHI U is -160

Looked at Cincy U 5.5, but their schedule is very easy, 27th. The value has also been so insanely railed out that it's not worth it. Would have to lay -150 now. It opened as high as U 7.5 even...

That's what happens when you get lines in late August and not July

CHI opened 9.5 -110 - now 8.5 U -160
KC opened 8 (U -120) - now 8 U -165
Cincy opened 7/7.5 (U even) - now 5.5 U -150

[Sunde91]

GB 1H TT Over 13 -135
2x to win 1.48

- Rodgers will play the entire 1st half, just as he did in the 3rd Preason game in his 1st 3 seasons as starter
- Colts have looked horrible and gave up 23 points to Rams and 16 points to WASH in 1Hs of 2 games
- Packers scored 17 @CLE, 14 ARI in 1Hs first two games
- Packers 1st unit has underperformed so far and will look to straighten it out with a whole half to play
- Packers should own TOP even more than Rams and Skins with superior D, giving more reps to O

edit: 5d line moved to -150 after I finished writing this

[odog11]

GB 1H TT Over 13 -135 2x to win 1.48 - Rodgers will play the entire 1st half, just as he did in the 3rd Preason game in his 1st 3 seasons as starter - Colts have looked horrible and gave up 23 points to Rams and 16 points to WASH in 1Hs of 2 games - Packers scored 17 @CLE, 14 ARI in 1Hs first two games - Packers 1st unit has underperformed so far and will look to straighten it out with a whole half to play - Packers should own TOP even more than Rams and Skins with superior D, giving more reps to O edit: 5d line moved to -150 after I finished writing this

On this one as well, but over 10.5 -150, got it in early. Over 13 and -150 is a little high, but I don't see it losing.

[Sunde91]

good line. I have -135, just saying it had already moved to -150. got hammered to O 13 -165 Greek and O 14 -105 5D now

[Sunde91]

Ravens -1.5 -110
2.2x to win 2

Might see about adding another unit closer to game.

PITT has been a top public play so far with 85%+ to pound this line down. I think this will be the best line to get before BALT money hits back.

-Super Bowl loser last 10 seasons in week one is 0-10 ATS

-BALT's future as a franchise is basically on the line. They won't win the Division and likely wont make the playoffs if they lose this. They are old and this may be their last year to contend. They positively must win this to avenge last year's home loss to PITT that cost them the Division and then the playoff loss @ PITT that probably cost them the AFC. Flacco is also 0-6 vs. Ben. If this is any kind of rivalry at all, BALT will finally beat PITT and Ben by at least 3.

BALT has been PITT's/Ben's bitch and that stops Sunday. To lose 3x (2 at home) against PITT in a 9 month span makes this rivalry a joke and their season likely over as far as contention. I'll play the desperate team who must have this game.

[Sunde91]

3 team 7 point teaser (ties win) +142: Cards -.5, Chargers -3, Cowboys +14
1x to win 1.42

[Sunde91]

Ariznona 2H -7 +115
1x to win 1.15

What a joke this game is. Cam gifted the 1st TD on blown coverage. Gifted the 2nd TD after PI extends drive. AZ fumbles inside the 20 and lots of other mistakes. Cards get the ball to start the half and they win this.

Cowboys +6.5 -105
1.05x to win 1

Line should be about -3.5. Jets overrated. Rex's brother brings the D tonight and Romo and co do enough on O to keep close.

[No coincidences]

Ariznona 2H -7 +115
1x to win 1.15

What a joke this game is. Cam gifted the 1st TD on blown coverage. Gifted the 2nd TD after PI extends drive. AZ fumbles inside the 20 and lots of other mistakes. Cards get the ball to start the half and they win this.

sCam has a deal with the devil.

[Sunde91]

Preseason: 0-1 -2.00
Regular: 4-0 +5.57

Patriots -3.5 +105 (Live)
1x to win 1.05

[Sunde91]

Patriots -13.5 -110 (Live Pats drive before half)
1.1x to win

[Sunde91]

6-0 +7.62


Broncos ML +110 (Live after 3rd)
1x to win 1.1

[Sunde91]

GB TT Over 28 -110
1.1x to win 1

[Sunde91]

GB 2nd Half -8 -110
1.1x to win 1

GB gets the ball, D settled down and held CAR to 20 something yards in 2nd Q

[Sunde91]

8-1 +8.62

Cowboys 2nd Half -7 +160
1x to win 1.6

Value train here. Dallas not getting ball hurts, but think they closed half strong and can win this.

[No coincidences]

8-1 +8.62

Cowboys 2nd Half -7 +160
1x to win 1.6

Value train here. Dallas not getting ball hurts, but think they closed half strong and can win this.

Any opinion on the total there Sunde?

[Sunde91]

Would have said under thinking SF wont score more than 7

Romo out what the hell. Was that info avaialbe? Kitna is capable though we will see

[Sunde91]

9-1 +10.22

Lots of breaks today. Romo went legend. That's a game that's the difference between 7-9 and spiral downward or 10-6 and playoffs. They can contend for NFC East with Eagles.

Man ATL ML +125 looks real good. Thinking of that or will watch for ATL Live or 2half possibly.

[sneakerhead]

Great calls on 2h packers and 2h dallas
I was going to bet on both but missed the window.

[Sunde91]

thanks sneaker

ATL ML +145 (Live PHI leading 10-7 2nd Q)
1x to win 1.45

ATL will wear them down running and Ryan and his WRs are just missing on some plays. PHI has benefited from field position and ATL has not. ATL also gets the ball to start 2nd half.

[No coincidences]

Huge swing there Sunde.

Huge.

[Sunde91]

about 15 swings in that game wow


10-1 +11.67

Giants home Monday Night coming off a loss is a good spot to jump on, but -7 is terrible. Last year they lost week 3 @ Tenn, then came back to steamroll CHI on Sunday Night 17-3, outgained them 372 to 110

[Sunde91]

Cincy -2.5 -105
2.1x to win 2

-Niners off a bad OT loss and now they travel 2500 miles for their first road game with a 1st time NFL coach
-Niners overrated and its shown in this line. This is a team that only led the worst team in the League (Seattle) 19-17 at home with 5 minutes left in the 4th. Then the back-to-back punt/kick TDs put it away
-Cincy are in their home opener with a very capable QB. Dalton is throwing 66% for 3 TDs, 0 INTs, and a 105 pr. Completion % and pr is far better than Newton but he wont get love because he isn't throwing for 400 inflated yards a game
-Cincy is a very respectable 9th in total D and should contain the Niners

Giants +8.5 -102
1.02x to win 1

-Too many points in a rivalry game like this, even if Giants are banged up. Still have a stout running game and D. Last year's collapse is also still fresh in the Giants mind and they want this as bad as ever. Their backs are against the wall, nobody says they have a chance in the East, but here it is
-Vick more fragile than ever and is one hit from a guy like Tuck from being knocked out. Giants are one of the best teams at getting to the QB

Vikings ML +145
1x to win 1.45

-Vikings were -3 in this game in the preseason. For them to open +4 is crazy. Only a team like GB is worthy of being 4 point road favorites in the North. Lions beat up on the 2nd worst team in the League (KC) and now they're worthy of getting Super Bowl contender level respect? Not a chance.

-Public perception trap. Not a big line movement or trap guy, but there are certain games like these that stick out. If DET were 1-1 with a mundane performance vs. KC, and MINN were 1-1, MINN would probably be a -2.5/-3 fav with equal action. Instead, Vegas opens this DET -4 knowing everyone will slam DET after what they did and after MINN fell apart. And right on queue, 83% slam it. Yet the line dropped to +3 with the vig favoring MINN? Pretty big money hit MINN early.

-Vikings season is on the line. They go 0-3 and they are 100% done for the season. They have the veteran team to dig this one out.

[Sunde91]

Packers -9 -110 (Live after 3nout to start 3rd)
1.1x to win 1

Bears are done coming out like that and giving GB ball on the 50

[Sunde91]

Colts 2nd Half +7.5 +103
1x to win 1.03

Colts with the ball and showed some progress on O
Colts with new life, crowd into it, motivated on D, believe they can win now
Ben and the O are completely rattled

[Sunde91]

Cowboys -3 -118
2.36x to win 2

Should go up some once Dez and Jones are confirmed to play, and they should, though still questionable. Romo says he will play.
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/8...nd-felix-jones

Can't see how guys on the fence with injuries will decide not play after what Romo did last Sunday and his decision to play tonight. This is their home opener Monday Night in a vital division game. After last week's comeback, they are a reinvigorated team who will get it done.

Skins overrated. Ambushed Giants in home opener and benefited from a pick 6. Got taken to the brink at home vs. a pretty below average Zona team. Don't expect them to keep it up in their first road game. Their total wins was set at 6 for a reason.

[Sunde91]

3-3 -2.43 week 3

Thru week 3
Overall: 13-4 +9.24

2x: 1-2 -2.46
1x: 11-2 +11.7
ATS (FG): 3-2 -0.46
ML: 1-2 -0.52 (0-1 FG)
Totals: 1-0 +1.00
2nd Half/Live: 8-1 +8.23
Teasers: 1-0 +1.42

[Sunde91]

Pats -4.5 -110
3.3x to win 3

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/players-ta...s-raiders.html

Hoped for -3.5 like it was briefly at BM, or planned to wait til Saturday for reduced, but didn't happen and now it's going to keep moving, -5 and beyond already

[Sunde91]

3 team 7 point teaser (ties win) +142: Cowboys +7, Rams +10, PITT +11
1x to win 1.42

[Sunde91]

Jets +3.5 +118
1x to win 1.18

Off line here from distorted perception like we saw with Pats today. BALT beat up on the Rams last week, one of the bottom 3 teams in the League, so everyone is back on their jock. Jets lost @OAK, so everyone is down on them. If BALT didn't roll and Jets didn't lose, this is probably +3 -115. Jets are an up and down regular season team like we saw last year and should respond to at least keep it close. Also added incentive for Ryan to win here after losing at home to his old BALT team last year at home.

[Sunde91]

Jets/BALT Under 54 -110 (Live 10-7 1st Q)
1.1x to win 1

[Sunde91]

Only thing crazier than 5 non-Offensive TDs is 0 points in the final 24 minutes for Live Under to hit

Probably no play tomorrow

3-1 +4.42 for week 4

Overall: 16-5 +13.66

[No coincidences]

Nice work Sunde.

What do you think about Iowa at Penn State this week? Thinking of making a big play on the Hawkeyes.

[Sunde91]

Would lean Iowa +4 coming off bye vs. a PSU team that seems like a pretty broken team. Ferentz will have them ready there.

Colts 2nd half +7 +120
1x to win 1.2

Team will continue to battle just like last week