Here we go , all plays 1u
BAL/PHI Over 34 (-110)
JAX +4 (-117)
NE/JAX Under 35 (-110)
SEA/SD Over 35 (-110)
Record: 0-0-0
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08-11-11 03:45 PM #1
Fading The Public - NFL Preseason Edition
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08-11-11 04:22 PM #2
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08-11-11 04:40 PM #3
fading the public but getting -117?!?!
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08-11-11 04:45 PM #4
Interesting.
But I prefer fading the public during the regular season.
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08-11-11 04:46 PM #5
It was 3 1/2 and moved to 4, still 3 1/2 at some places and people are on Pats at that # I do believe. I was thinking of it myself actually as Jacksonville is leaving a lot people at home. May just play some points on it
Originally Posted by Streamline
fading the public but getting -117?!?!
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08-11-11 04:52 PM #6
Where are you getting your public % from? I am showing 57% of bets on the SEA Over from one of the best paid line services. Also none of those plays are over 60%....66% are on the Over in the Ari game...62% are on the Under in the Dal game...and 60% are on Balt. Those are the only 3 games with over 60%
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08-11-11 06:53 PM #7
numbers from Sports.com, sportsbook.com.
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08-12-11 09:07 AM #8
My numbers went 2-1. From your numbers it went 1-3. I'm not playing this but for fun I'll keep track of fading the public. Games that qualify will be 60% or greater on one side of the spread or total.
I would be careful what service you are using for watching % of bets placed. All the free sites use their numbers from contests etc and if you are using a sports books numbers it only includes their numbers which could be way off from the general consensus if it is a very public book vs a very sharp book. The only two line services I would trust are Don Best and Sports Options and they both include numerous books including all the big ones.Last edited by DrSize; 08-12-11 at 09:33 AM.
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08-12-11 10:33 AM #9
I like to think sportsbook.com users aren't very sharp and seem to follow the crowd in certain sports and situations. I understand what your saying though , theres no way to know what the percentages there mean without number of bets placed , etc. Just curious to see how it plays out for preseason
Record: 1-3-0 -2.09u
SF +2 (-105)
SF/NO Under 35.5 (-110)
CIN/DET Over 34.5 (-110)
PIT/WAS Over 33 (-110)
TB/KC Under 32.5 (-110)
Last edited by bostonbruins; 08-12-11 at 02:38 PM.
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08-13-11 07:39 AM #10
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08-13-11 10:43 AM #11
This method of betting should have done better in regular season, not the preseason. I prefer we looking for the team that lost the first game, play second game to kick a win, or the third game to grab it.
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08-13-11 03:14 PM #12
Record: 4-5-0 -1.36u
CAR -1.5 (-125)
TEN -3 (-110)
BUF +2.5 (-110)
TEN/MIN Under 32.5 (-110)
NYG/CAR Under 33 (-117)
IND/STL Under 34 (-117)
Last edited by bostonbruins; 08-13-11 at 05:36 PM.
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08-14-11 02:53 PM #13
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08-15-11 03:43 AM #14
NYJ/HOU Under 35 (-125)
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08-15-11 03:54 AM #15
This pre is all messed up due to the timeline, think you've done pretty well considering. And I think you're right on the o/u tonight.
But I'm not touching anything until reg kicks in, maybe 2nd/3rd game.
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08-18-11 03:33 PM #16
Record: 8-8-0 -0.89u
NE/TB Under 37 (-110)
TB -1 (-110)
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08-19-11 05:04 PM #17
Record: 8-10-0 -2.89u
WAS/IND Under 35.5 (-110)
DET/CLE Under 38 (-110)
CAR/MIA Under 34.5 (-110)
ARZ/GB Under 39 (-110)
ATL/JAX Under 36.5 (-110)
IND +5 (-115)
MIA -6 (-110)
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08-19-11 06:56 PM #18
Hope you have better luck tonight.
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08-20-11 06:45 AM #19
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08-31-11 03:51 AM #20
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