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Nobody here has played more leagues , studied more fantasy football or done more mock drafts then me.
For 2011 i have came to this conclusion
1. First of all if your mocking on fantasy football calculator, cbs, espn, yahoo, mock draft central, people will draft according to that sites pre ranking.
If you want to get be really prepared for your drafts you need to mock on more than one site and find out which players are being drafted where on each site
Example: Mario Manningham; He has been going late round 3 in many espn mocks, but will go in round 6 or 7 or cbs and calculator , same goes for jimmy graham, daniel thomas, and a few others.
2. This is the deepest year in the history of fantasy football at quarterback and at tight end.
The average draft position at qb with all combined site rankings are
1. Vick
2 A rodgers
3 tom brady
4 p manning
5 philip rivers
6 drew brees
7 tony romo
8 matt schaub
9 matt ryan
10. big ben
11. josh freeman
12 eli manning
13 mathew stafford
14. sam bradford
15. joe flacco
16 jay cutler
17. Kevin Kolb
18. Matt cassell
19 D mcnabb
20. K orton
21 tim tebow
22. mark sanchez
23. ryan fitzpatrick
Would you rather have vick, rodgers , brees etc in the early rounds or take
josh freeman and take kolb as his backup??
After studying over 1thousand mock and real drafts, almost every team that took a qb early has 1 thing in common. They are stuck with a mediocre #2 running back or #2 or 3 wr.
Most will say you need a top qb but i disagree. I would rather have a top running back and wr and wait on qb.
If you look at the qb's ranked from 9 to 19 there are plenty of qb's that will throw around 4 k and over 20 touchdowns.
3.Running back depth is horrific.
Ive seen many teams go wr wr at the 10-12 spot and in rounds 3 or 4, forced to take a running back like ryan mathews, s greene, or wait and take a qb, and then comeback with c benson, felix jones, daniel thomas.
There are so many teams that have running back by committee that is is very important to get atop rb early.
The best teams Ive seen drafted have gone rb, rb, in fact some have gone rb, rb rb , then proceded by going wr, wr wr, then taking j freeman, eli and taking stafford or bradford as a backup
Example of a team like this would be
I did a mock in the 1 spot and drafted this team
A foster, Forte, blount, lloyd,holmes, manningham, jimmy graham, josh freeman,m stafford, mike thomas, Leshoure, b edwards,phily, roy williams, demarco murray
Example of a team at the 12 spot going wr wr
R white, nicks, p rivers, mike williams, d thomas, felix jones,julio jones, b jacobs, cooley, cutler, j ford, m clayton,chicago,janikowski,forsett, shiancoe
4. Balance is the key. If you start 2 rb, 3 wr, te, and a flex then its best to go rb, wr or wr rb when possible.
Of course if you get an early pck you need to take AP, charles, chris johnson , etc. The earliest a wr is taken off the board is andre johnson around pick 6 to 9 and then in round 2 with running back matt forte or steven jackson.
After 4 picks you need 2 running backs and 2 wr for an effective competitive team.
You can get matt ryan in round 6, big ben in round 7, freeman in round 8, bradford and kolb in round 10 or 11
5. This is also the deepest year in the history of football at tight end.
I highly recommend waiting on a tight end. taking gates or finley or dallas clark early is just crazy. Always take a starting rb or wr over a tightend. You only start 1 tight end and will need to start 2 to 3 rb and wr.
Tight end rankings
Gates,jimmy graham,clark,finley,witten, v davis,o daniels,tony g, m lewis,
z miller,gronkowski,celek,cooley,winslow,s hiancoe,
My recommendation at tight end is to get jimmy graham. He is the #1 tight end in new orleans and his projections are much lower than what his actually stats will be. espn is projecting only 1 td more than last year. Give me a break. He could end up #1.
You can get cooley or celek in round 11 and they will produce better than projected. vick and celek have been working hard together and he had a hand injury last year and is now 100 percent. Whoever starts in washington will throw alot of short and passes down the middle to cooley.
Mcnabb loves throwing to tight ends and Shiancoe will have a better season in minnesota and you can get him in round 12 or 13.
Why take a risk on a injured gates,clark or finley. Neither of the 3 are 100% right now, especially when you need that 2nd rb or 3rd wr.
6. Defense
I can't tell you how many times ive been in a draft and will see some homer take the steelers, jets or packers defense over a starting rb or wr or te.
The top defense will only have 3 to 5 more points then the bottom tier defenses.
My prediction for the top d will the the Eagles. Why?
They have loaded up on defense and don't forget. Most leagues count return touchdowns as defensive points.
A team like the Saints will even put up more points then some top defenses because of the return game.
Please wait on your defense , take 1 in the last round and just add and drop each week according to matchups if needed.
Never draft more than 1 k or defense. Draft that sleeper qb , rb or wr and you can find a d or k on free agency with no problem.
Sleepers
1 Mike thomas. He is now the #1 wr in Jackonsville
After a quiet rookie season, Mike Thomas made great strides last year and became Garrard's most trusted receiver; often being the man Garrard looked to when he needed a first down. Thomas' numbers aren't eye popping, but if you're in a point per reception league, he is most definitely someone you want to draft. While Thomas isn't as good as Wes Welker or Steve Smith (NYG), he is a very similar receiver. Small, but strong, runs great routes and has great hands, allowing him to catch a high number of passes, even if they aren't for big yards. Thomas will be going into his 3rd NFL season, which is usually when a WR breaks out. Last season he led the Jags in receptions (66) and yards (820) and caught 4 TDs. Look for all those numbers to go up this year.
2. Torrey Smith
After throwing to largely senior citizen types a season ago, Joe Flacco finally has someone with young -- and speedy -- wheels to play pitch and catch with. Last season at Maryland, Smith hauled in 67 catches for 1055 yards and 12 touchdowns and the burner will provide the Ravens' attack with a home run threat. While his 2011 numbers figure to be hit or miss (as often is the case with rookies), Smith is in line to be the Ravens' third receiver. That is assuming Derrick Mason (or another experienced option) is kept to start opposite Anquan Boldin. Certainly a dynasty league option, Smith makes for a late round flyer in redraft leagues, an intriguing one at that.
3. Mikel Leshoure
The Lions picked up a quality running back in Mikel Leshoure in the second round of the 2011 NFL Draft. He should be a nice fit with the shifty Jahvid Best. While Best will make the big plays, Leshoure can be the workhorse and carry the load. He may not get too many carries as a rookie, but many scouts had him rated as the second best running back in this class and he does not lack the talent to be a superb back in the NFL. Leshoure just needs a little time to get into the groove before he will be ready to take over a majority of the Lions carries. Whether that happens in a couple of years or a couple of weeks is the big question for prospective fantasy owners. Even if Leshoure is slow to come around, he should be the goal line option for the Lions sooner rather than later.
4. Daniel thomas Miami
Thomas played quarterback in a wildcat offense, which could be useful if Miami continues to implement their wildcat offense. At 6 ft 1 in and 225 pounds with 4.55 speed, Thomas has the size and speed to be an every down back
5 Sam bradford
The 2010 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year threw 18 touchdowns last season, but only one in his final five games. This may scare some fantasy owners. Don't make the same mistake.
Three reasons to like Bradford as a sleeper next year: He'll have more experience. He'll also have a healthier receiving corps to work with. And Josh McDaniels is now his offensive coordinator. McDaniels turned Matt Cassel and Kyle Orton into fantasy stars. Imagine what he can do with a talent like Bradford.
If you're worried about the lockout preventing McDaniels from teaching Bradford, don't be concerned. Josh's brother, Ben, has been teaching Bradford all offseason. Ben was Josh's quarterbacks coach in Denver. Since he's currently unemployed, he could legally work with Bradford.
6. MathewStafford
I really liked Matthew Stafford last year and drafted him as a backup in nearly all of my fantasy leagues. Of course, Stafford suffered an injury in the first week of the season, which knocked him out until November.
Everyone is down on Stafford now, so buy low. Once upon a time, Matt Schaub and Phil Simms were considered extremely brittle due to a plethora of injuries early in their careers. They proved their critics wrong, and so could Stafford. He has the talent around him to be a fantasy stud.
7.Ryan Mathews was selected in the second or third rounds of most fantasy drafts last summer. Thanks to injuries, Mathews didn't do much early on. However, in his final four games, Mathews totaled 296 rushing yards, seven receptions (53 rec. yards) and a whopping five touchdowns.
General manager A.J. Smith didn't spent the No. 12 overall selection on Mathews to keep him on the bench. The Fresno State product will be a big part of San Diego's potent offense in 2011.
8. Rashad Jennings
The Jaguars are concerned about Maurice Jones-Drew's knees, so they plan on decreasing his workload in 2011. That's great news for Rashad Jennings, who rushed for 5.5 yards per carry in relief of an injured Jones-Drew last season.
If you take drew make sure to handcuff jennings in the later rounds
9. mario manningham
Steve Smith is coming off knee surgery and may not be ready for the start of the season. Furthermore, Smith has admitted that he's concerned that he has lost some explosiveness. Oh, and check out Mario Manningham's numbers in the final three games of the 2010 campaign: 16 catches, 346 yards, four touchdowns.
Manningham is entering his contract year, so I'm expecting him to post some huge numbers.
10 andre roberts
Andre Roberts has some upside. He caught five passes for 110 yards and a touchdown in the penultimate game of the 2010 season. He'll probably be the No. 2 receiver in Arizona this year
11. Jimmy graham
Jimmy Graham hauled in 31 receptions for 356 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie in 2010. With Jeremy Shockey gone, the job is all Graham's. He's going to score a ton of touchdowns in New Orleans' high-octane offense.
12 Owen daniels
Most of the 2010 season was a waste for Owen Daniels. But not the last four games - he posted 271 yards and two touchdowns in those contests. Can he stay healthy though? Well, the Texans apparently think so because they gave him a 4-year, $22 million contract in March. Daniels is going to be WAY undervalued in your fantasy drafts this summer.
13. Kenny Britt: If he can produce with bum vince young then he should do well with hasselback at qb. He is a quality 3 wr for your team
14. Brandon Jacobs: not alot of yards but considering he had 9 td last year he could do better. There will be several running backs in round 1 or 2 taken that won't even get 9 touchdowns.
15. Pierre Thomas
You can get him cheap and their other rb is mark ingram. He has touchdown potential. He has more upside then downside
16. Anthony Armstrong
A legit deep threat whom the Redskins really like, he had double-digit fantasy points in three of his final five games. If he can become more integrated into all aspects of the passing game and not just the home run or bust he was last year,
Bust picks
Qb chad henne: he is a bum
Rb Javhid best: leshoure is better and best still hasnt recovered from his toe injury
Not really a bust, but frank gore. If you saw his hip injury you know what i mean. he is being drafted in round 2, is holding out and is only about 70 percent. The 70 percent should be enough for you to stay away.
Peyton Hillis: he is a better pick in a ppr. They have already said hardesty will get more carries and he will fade as the season goes. Plays baltimore and pitt twice
James starks: splitting carries with grant and a bit overrated, plenty of other rb to draft over starks
Desean jackson
DeSean Jackson suffered a monstrous hit in a Thursday night battle against the Texans. Ever since then, he ran nothing but go routes. He demolished the Cowboys the following Sunday, but subsequent teams caught on. Jackson's final three games: seven catches, 131 yards, no touchdowns. And speaking of no touchdowns, Jackson found the end zone only once after Nov. 15.
Jackson is one of the most dynamic players in the NFL, but he's way too brittle. Let someone else spend an early pick on him.
Ryan toraine and roy helu
A popular mid-round draft strategy this year is to obtain both Ryan Torain and Roy Helu. Well, congratu-f***ing-lations. You've used two mid-round picks to obtain a pair of mediocre talents, one of whom figures to average 3.1 yards per carry for the worst offense in the NFL.
Don't overthink things. Avoid these bums and focus on drafting better players.
Moreno
Knowshon Moreno's ADP as of this writing is 4.09. . Denver reportedly doesn't see Moreno as an every-down runner, which makes you wonder why Josh McDaniels spent such an early draft pick on Moreno
Benjarvus green ellis
Scouring through Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP list, I was SHOCKED to see BenJarvus Green-Ellis at 6.06. God doesn't even know what the hell Bill Belichick is going to do with his billion running backs, so I just don't understand how anyone can spend such an early pick on Green-Ellis. Let's wait until the preseason - maybe we can figure out what Belichick plans on doing then.
Boldin
Anquan Boldin's ADP is insanely high at 5.09. I don't get it. Have people forgotten that he averaged 35.4 yards and scored two touchdowns in the final nine weeks of the 2011 season? And that doesn't even include his brilliant performance at Pittsburgh in the second round of the playoffs: one catch, minus-2 yards.
Here is my 1st money league team of the year
I had the 3rdpick
.50 ppr 12 teams, start qb, rb, rb wr, wr wr, te, flex, k d
1. Arian Foster
2. matt forte
3. v jackson
4. m colston
5. s holmes
6. m manningham
7 jimmy graham
8 josh freeman
9 mathew stafford
10. mikel leshoure
11. mike thomas
12. michael bush
13 phily
14 s janikowski
15. for a good time, i took jeff george, ill cut him later, the draft needed a laugh
Didnt' really like the colston pick, thats why i took manningham and mike thomas. Thomas will breakout , even if not he is my bye week wr and i dont even need manningham to start on my team. Balanced winning team with great matchups all playoff weeks.
More later, doing my 30th mock of the day
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