1. #1
    buffettgambler
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    NFL Week 2: Sunday's Plays

    Sides
    Colts @ Vikings
    Play: Vikings +1.5

    It appears that the opening line was influenced by the perception that the Colts can not start a season 0-2. Why not? There defense is going to take a huge step backwards this year (which appeared evident in week 1), while there offense is a couple of weeks away from getting into rhythm. The Colts starting the season 0-2 is not only possible, but probable.

    The key to the Vikings success on offense is the success of their running game, as not only can it be one of the most dominant ones in the league, but their passing game is heavily dependent on the success of their running game. Therefore, a fundamental mismatch on the ground significantly increases the likelihood of the Vikings chances of winning. Fortunately for them this week, they have a definitive advantage on the ground, as their power running game should directly attack the weakness of the Colts defense-stopping the run and being undersized and vulnerable against this style of running. Expect both Patterson and Taylor to have success from start to finish in this game, which should tire out the Colts defense, take away their pass rush, and take much needed pressure of Jackson, who needs to work within his means. This advantage should also allow the Vikings to dictate the tempo of this game (a hidden important variable in this match up) and keep the Colts offense off the field (an offense that has some fundamental advantages in their own right. The Colts pass defense should also witness a step down in productivity this year, and again, week 1 supported such a notion. Jackson, much like Orton, is an inexperienced quarterback that needs to work within his means to be effective. The Colts defense provides this chance. In my opinion, the strength of the Vikings passing game is often overlooked in the marketplace, as it appears to be quantified in a homogenous nature, rather with the extreme disparity of productivity predicated on their running games success. Fundamental match ups like this should provide value on the Vikings throughout the season.

    The Colts offense clearly showed some rust in week one, and appears a couple of weeks away from playing in top form. The success of this offense has always been predicated on timing and tempo, two variables that on the surface match up well against the Vikings, but also two variables that are counterintuitive to the rust in which the Colts are prone to showing this week. The Vikings defense struggles against the up tempo offense in which the Colts possess (mainly because it takes away the strength of the two Williams). However, expect a decreased rate of no-huddle offense, as Manning works himself into shape and timing. If Manning plays as poorly as he did in week 1, the Colts will struggle, as their running game will meet its match against a top three run defense. The injuries to Saturday and Clark are big ones. Saturday is needed to counter the strength of the interior line the Vikings possess, while Clark is needed to take advantage of the inner hash passing game in which the Vikings struggle defending.

    A cardinal rule in pro football betting is to never bet on a favorite that is on the road and lacks the better defense and running game. This game provides no variable to expect one to deviate from this notion. The Vikings send the Colts to an 0-2 record the market can’t fathom possible.


    Packers @ Lions
    Play: Packers -3

    With all the attention circumventing Rogers, the quality and worth of the Packers defense continues to fly under the radar, and may provide hidden value on the Packers until the market catches up and realizes this is one of the best units in the league. The Lions offense gets a lot of recognition and carries a perception that they are one of the better ones in the league. However, their big name players are not resulting in true productivity, as the high variance within their drives coupled with high rates of mistakes is simply something that can not coincide with a defense that struggles to stop anyone. Arguably, the Lions biggest strength is their passing game (or more realistically their smallest weakness), and their success is heavily dependent on this unit (as they lack an effective running game, and need a productive passing game to counter their lack of defense). Having said that, their passing game should struggle against an underrated Packers pass defense that not only have a definitive advantage in the trenches that should put constant pressure on Kitna throughout, but there aggressive cornerback play has posed problems for the Lions receivers in the past, especially Williams, who has just one 100 yard game against the Packers in 6 games against the packers (despite a high rate of passes thrown at him in those games). Without an advantage in the air for the Lions, there is not much hope, as their running game lacks a back that can offset a trench disadvantage or the ability to counter one of the best run defenses in the league. Expect the Lions to struggle on the ground and in the air, which should result in lower variance in drives, as they will mainly end with 0-2 first downs.

    If the fundamental mismatch the Lions have on offense wasn’t enough, they should also get dominated on the defense as well. This is a defense that got dominated last week against arguably the worst offense in the league, and a defense that is especially vulnerable against well rounded offenses like the Packers, as a defense with so many weaknesses simply make it really hard to put forth a positively skewed performance against a well rounded offense (the Rams defense last week was mentioned in the same manner). The Packers advantage on the ground should allow Rogers to work within his means, where he is highly efficient, force the Lions to stack the box (which allows Rogers to attack the third level where he showed to be productive last week). It will also make it hard for the Lions to backdoor, as it should keep their offense off the field for long periods of time.

    In my opinion, there are simply too many advantages the Packers provide in this game to make me think the Lions keep this one close. With Favre no longer on the team, the marketplace is expecting a drop-off. Don’t hold your breath; rather take advantage of the generous lines provided for the time being.


    Falcons @ Bucs
    Play: Bucs -7

    It appears that the Bucs are once again on pace to become that undervalued, boring, favorite that no one wants to bet. Books opened the line at 9, but heavy public betting dropped the price down to a key number, as solid play of a rookie quarterback and free agent running back have caught the attention of bettors looking for a “sexy sleeper”. I would much rather be a seller of unsustainable play, and be a backer of fundamentals that support a dominating performance out of the Bucs.

    Things should be much different for Ryan this game, as he now goes on the road to play a complex, fast defense that should give him a multitude of looks that should lead him into trouble. He should also not have the backing of a dominant running game that was provided to him last week, as the battle of the trenches edge easily goes to the Bucs, while having the luxury to stack the box and force Ryan to beat him should limit Turner’s productivity to a non-factor level. As the running game was the catalyst to a productive offensive showing last week, this week it should be the catalyst to a dormant one. If the Bucs take an early lead as predicted, a one dimensional offense run by an inexperienced quarterback will lead to mistakes.

    The Bucs offense is not a flashy one, but it is an underrated one. It is also an offense that won’t witness much of a drop-off with Griese behind center, who might be able to better take advantage of the lack of second and third level coverage the Falcons possess (which is valuable for heavy favorites). Probably the Bucs most underrated unit is their running game, which also has a decisive advantage over a front seven that will struggle stopping most power running games they face this season. With the Bucs having the ability to attack the Falcons two biggest weaknesses on defense (defending the power run and big play in the air) the Bucs can mask their Achilles heal of finishing red zone drives with touchdowns.

    If this game were played in week 1, we have a double digit spread easily. The public is biting on a bad team playing on the road, and are disregarding a Bucs team that has always bounced back from tough losses. The Bucs should dominate from start to finish on both sides of the ball, while the Falcons simply lack the tools for a backdoor. Good value on the favorite in my opinion.

    Bears @ Panthers
    Play: Panthers -3

    Both teams are coming off upset road victories. Deciphering which teams overachieving play is sustainable can allow someone to spot the value in this game. Don’t let the Bears solid offensive effort from last week fool you. Orton is the not the savior to the Bears passing game, nor is Forte the much needed running back they have been lacking for years. The sooner one realizes that both the Bears passing game and running game will rank near the bottom the league, the sooner there spreads will be placed back to normality. Without the backing of a running game, Orton can be exposed for the below average quarterback that he is. So finding games in which the Bears running game should struggle can allow for value, as a compounding effect arises, as their passing game will struggle as well. The Panthers have a solid run defense and the luxury to stack the box until Orton proves they can’t. This should minimize the productivity of the Bears ground game, and force Orton to throw in more stressful circumstances, rather than under the play action in which he is most productive at. With the Bears offensive line overachieving last week and still a liability, the Panthers pass rush who put pressure on Rivers all game, should be able to do the same to Orton, who struggles finding hot reads. Simply put, both the Bears running game and passing game should witness a significant drop off from last week.

    The drop off should not be expected out of the Panthers, as their experience and ability to counter fast fronts with hot reads should pose well against an overaggressive Bears defense. Although they lack any decisive advantage on offense, they should have just enough success on the ground and through the air to allow their defense to win this game for them. The Panthers also have the ability to counter the main fundamental mismatch they have on offense in this game which is third and long situations, as the Panthers running game proved more than capable of avoiding these situations last week, while their first level passing game proved capable of adjusting without Smith.

    I will happily be a seller of a Bears team coming off good play, as the marketplace is still trying to figure out what kind of team they are. In reality, they are an average team at best, which can not be said for an underrated Panthers team, whose balance of an above average offense, defense, and coaching should make this team a quiet threat this season. I like the Panthers to win this by more than a field goal.


    Niners @ Seahawks
    Play: Seahawks -6.5

    I may have bit too early on the Seahawks in week one, as their injuries on offense and rust on Hassleback were quite evident. However I have no problem backing them when they are this out of favor by the marketplace, which dropped them off a 9 open and through a key number 7 like it was nothing.

    But who are they backing? I thought the marketplace backed off the Niners being the “sexy” play they were last year, as their O/U win total and opening week spread showed the market didn’t think much of them. However, they showed last week that they are not much, and have a lot of holes in their game to hang with a solid team like the Seahawks. O’Sullivan’s play may be getting too much credit, as he won the job by default, and his propensity for error should be magnified against one of the best defenses in the league in causing them. Coming off a five turnover game is the last thing you want coming into Quest, where a hostile crowd, complex and fast defense can wreak havoc on any inexperienced quarterback. The Niners are in dire need to have an effective running game, but simply lack a front five to counter 8 man boxes. Gore struggled against the Seahawks last year because of this notion, and I see nothing different this year to not expect the same. This should allow for an influx of blitzes throughout this game, which does not bode well for the Niners offense who may be the worst team in the league countering blitzes.

    The Seahawks offense should witness a significant upgrade of play this week despite all the injuries they have. The Seahawks offense stalled last week, as they lost the battle in the interior trenches, which disrupted Hasselback’s pocket before it could develop. The lack of an interior rush should open up the passing game. The lack of a go to receiver hurts any team, but the Seahawks less than most, as are effective in spreading out the ball and attacking weak areas of an opponent’s defense. Even without Morris, the Seahawks running game should improve, as the Niners showed incapable of containing one of the most anemic running games in the league last week.

    Home field advantage is magnified in this game. Quest provides one of the biggest home field advantages in the league. The Niners have also played with another level of intensity during their home games that they simply can not bring on the road. Add a quarterback making his first career road start, and we have more than an expected 3 point home field advantage. Even using a 3 point advantage, there is simply more than 3.5 residual points fundamentally speaking. The Niners offense is anemic and mistake prone. The Seahawks defense is talented and one of the best at creating mistakes. The Seahawks offense may not play at the level of play they will play at later in the season, but that is not needed to dominate this game. I like the out of favor favorite in this one as well.

    Totals
    Raiders @ Chiefs
    Play Over 35.5

    One unit I expected to witness a drop-off as big as any this year was the Raiders defense. Week one has so far proved my expectation right; and playing on the road on short rest should allow for an opportunity to continue this sustainable downgrade of play. Add three key injuries to their defense that will either keep Hall and Burgess off the field or on the field at a lower productivity rate, and the Raiders are primed for another disappointing performance. Huard should add a faster tempo and more consistency to the Chiefs offense. He also provides the Chiefs experience under center, which is much needed against a defense vulnerable in creating busted coverage’s, big plays downfield, and quick scoring drives. The Chiefs also should put forth some success on the ground, as Johnson has always fundamentally matched up well against a Raiders front, while Charles now provides a change of pace and big play ability. The Chiefs are not an ideal offense to have for an Over, but the Raiders can allow big plays to any offense. Until the market realizes this is the case, I have no problem taking a sub par offense on the Over.

    The Chiefs defense may be getting too much respect from last week’s game. Although they allowed just 17 points, they showed vulnerability defending the pass and the run, which should carry on throughout the season. The Raiders offense is heavily dependent on one variable, giving Russell time. Although they don’t have the line to provide such, the Chiefs lack the pass rush to put pressure on any quarterback. This should allow Russell time in the pocket to utilize his strong arm and attack the second and third levels of defenses that he is most effective at, instead of the first level in which pressure forces him into throwing at. The Chiefs run defense is also one of the worst in the league. They allowed over 4.5 yards a carry last week even with a stacked box. This bodes well for a Raiders offense, whose only strength is their underrated running game (in which they were unable to develop last week because of the game situation). This running game advantage should also curtail the possibility of pressure, and also open up the play action in which the Raiders used more than any other AFC team last year, while the Chiefs were the second least productive team against this type of pass. Much like the Chiefs offense, the Raiders offense is not ideal for an Over. However, both defenses in this game are sub par and overrated, and have no business being complemented with a mid 30 total. Both offenses should do just enough to get at least 17 and send this one over the mark.

    Bengals @ Titans
    Play Over 37

    One of my bold predictions last week was stating that the Titans defense would witness a significant drop-off this season. Last week, they showed nothing to support my notion, which resulted in an Under on one of my Over plays. However, I still stand firm on my belief and will back it with Over plays on their games until the market adjusts. This week they adjusted on the opposite, as the bid down an already low total 2.5 points, as bettors are jumping ship on anything correlated to the Bengals offense.

    Although I predicted a horrible showing out of the Bengals offense last week, it was more of a product of me being very bullish on a Ravens offense. This is still an offense with big play ability and an effective passing game that should favor Overs. Expect the Bengals to spread the ball and line up in multiple receiver sets early and often to curtail the effects of a defense that is potent when bunched up. This should take a linebacker off the field, which was the unit that was very instrumental in getting to Garrard seven times last week. It is no secret how important Haynesworth is to the Titans defense. Battling the effects of a concussion took him out of practice all week. Whether he plays or not, don’t expect him to be much of a factor. This should open up things for the Bengals offense and provide the balance they were lacking last week.

    The market may have overreacted to the injury to Young, as Collins style actually favors Overs. His ability to attack second and third level defenses is exactly what you want when facing an undisciplined secondary that takes a lot of unwarranted chances. Collins is also the experienced quarterback you want when facing a defense prone to miss coverage’s and big plays. Last year, the Titans style of running favored the Under, as the running rate of runs 4 yards or under were detrimental to the clock. The addition of Johnson gives the running game much needed big play ability, while the inferior run defense gives the Titans sustainable drive ability.

    Both the Titans and Bengals offense should improve this week. The Bengals face a more favorable match up, while the Titans have a quarterback with the tools to attack the Bengals defense. There exists a disconnect of perception in the Titans defense between me and the marketplace. The market was right in game one. I doubt they will be right this week.

    Colts @ Vikings
    Play: Over 43

    With the Over and Vikings being undervalued in this game, I believe the difference of perception between me and the market is with the Colts defense. The market appears to be quantifying last year’s production as sustainable, while I am quantifying a drop-off. Week one showed a drop-off should be rewarded. This week should be no different, as the Vikings strengths go right after the Colts glaring weakness. As described under my Vikings play, the huge fundamental mismatch the Vikings have on the ground should not only open up big plays on the ground for the Vikings, but also open up an underrated passing game that is heavily dependent on the running game.

    The biggest concern I have with my Vikings bet is the tempo issue. The Vikings simply can’t handle up tempo offenses, and there is no up tempo offense more prevalent than the no huddle the Colts often use. They Colts know this, and will use it as much as possible. Whether effective or not, this should lead to a lot of drives that are not clock demanding. So should the notion that the Colts biggest advantage is in the air, as the Vikings should force the Colts into a more one dimensional attack.

    Both teams should reach the 20’s. The Colts will have trouble stopping the Vikings all day, while their offense should will be forced to hang in there with a heavy dose of passing. I like the Over.


    Bills @ Jaguars
    Play: Over 37

    Another prediction that turned sour last week was my prediction that it was going to be the Jaguars defense, rather than their offense that was predicted by the market to witness regression this year. Against the Titans, it was the offense that showed to be anemic. However, like my Titans prediction, I stand by this one.

    The Bills defense is undersized and vulnerable against power running attacks. Expect the Jaguars to have success throughout the game on the ground, tire out a Bills defense, and force them to stack the box, which should open up big plays downfield with the pass. The Bills struggled in defending the Jaguars running game last year, and despite attempts to shore up their front seven this year, I see nothing to expect otherwise yet again. Not only with this wear down the Bills in the heat, but everything starts with the Jaguars offense- which leads to a positive correlation between Overs and running attempts for this team (which is not always the case). One advantage the Bills have on defense is their ability to use a lot of blitzes. The injuries to the Jaguars line causes them to use a lot of players not used to working together. This lead to seven sacks last week, while the Bills heavy blitzing was successful last week. However, a heavy dose of blitzing is more times than not favorable to Overs, as it leads to a lot of big plays for offenses and defenses, as well as clock stopping incomplete passes.

    One thing I was surprised about last week was the efficiency of the Bills offense. I underestimated Edwards ability to attack third levels, which is a very vulnerable area for the Jaguars as their aggressive play, and inability to stop the run this year, forces more men up front. Expect the Bills to do enough on the ground and through the air to compliment a 20 plus scoring performance out of the Jags to send this one Over.

    Patriots @ Jets
    Play: Over 39

    The market appeared to accurately discount the injury to Brady with the side spread, but appeared to over adjust for his absence (as well as the low scoring game last week) with the below 40 total they have priced in. Let’s not forget this is still an offense with plenty of playmakers catching the ball, a solid running game, and a cohesive line that can offset the inexperience they have behind center. Let’s also not forget that the Belichick is also the master at devising unexpected game plans. With everyone expecting the Patriots to utilize a conservative power running attack, a simplified passing attack, and throw their no-huddle schemes out the window, don’t be surprised to see the exact opposite. The Jets defense is a mediocre one that showed holes against dormant Dolphins passing attack. The Patriots should have no problem getting their share of points this week.

    With attention all over Cassell, little attention has been placed on a Patriots defense that should regress this year, and has holes in the secondary to counter aggressive quarterbacks like Favre. Expect the Jets to try to turn this game into a shootout and put pressure on Cassell. They may have success implementing this strategy, as the Patriots have problems defending the deeper levels of the field.

    Defensive touchdown? Both defenses will offer a lot of complex and aggressive schemes. Bellichick has given problems to Favre in the past, and may be more aggressive than ever knowing their defense will have to make a big play to boost their offense. Mangini will also be licking his chops and throw a lot of complex schemes at a quarterback making his first start out of high school. Such aggressiveness will lead to big play ability on both sides of the ball, which are favorable to the Over.

    The market appears lost in discounting the total due to Brady’s injury. I think they over adjusted in this game, as underlying fundamentals still favor the Over.


    Steelers @ Browns
    Play: Under 44

    Last week we witnessed two unexpected performances out of these teams. The Steelers offense was unstoppable, while the Browns offense was not existent. This usually creates a line that is inefficient, and in my opinion, this game is no different. The Steelers offense is not nearly as good as what they showed last week. Their running game probably just put forth their best game of the season, and even against an anemic Browns run defense, should see a drop-off in productivity this week. This will not stop the Steelers from implementing a heavy dose of running, in order to turn this game into a smash mouth game rather than the shootout the Browns are hoping for. Expect the Steelers to have enough success on the ground to allow for the implementation of this strategy, but not enough success to warrant being detrimental to the Under. The Browns disappointing performance last week is to be expected more times than the marketplace is expecting, as they will witness a significant drop-off compared to last year. This game provides an opportunity for back to back sub par performances, as the Steelers possess a very similar defense that the Cowboys defense dominated the Browns with last week. Expect the shutdown in the running game to again put more pressure on Anderson to perform well against one of the better pass defenses in the league. His lack of consistency should lead once again into many promising drives that end with no points.

    Until the Browns offense finds its stride, I will pounce on any overpriced total I can find. I don’t have to wait for a regression out of the Steelers offense, as I know they are not as good as what they showed last week, and will not need a significant regression to allow this game to go Under. Good value on the Under in my opinion.

  2. #2
    ohmigods
    ohmigods's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-14-08
    Posts: 17

    GL BG
    like all your spread plays

  3. #3
    VegasDave
    Philosophy Frog
    VegasDave's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 01-03-07
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    Great write ups Buffet...

    Why did you come into the season expecting the Raiders defense to be downgraded despite the additions of Hall and Wilson?

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