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Some tips to for the newbs.
Most of the people on this site have been betting online for years. What are your best Tips for us newbs who are new to the industry.
For example, what to look for in a site? what payouts should be like? what are some hassles he are bound to come into?
Any comments will be appreciated.
take the A+ books (as rated by SBR), and you should experience no payout issue (and generally have great odds, eg with pinnacle)
Use these,
Betjamaica, Matchbook, TheGreek, Bookmaker. (Add Pinnacle & Betfair if you're livin' outside of US)
1) Playing at a good book is key (5Dimes is another reputable site, adding on to the list that Sawyer provided). If you deposit at a crap book you will eventually have problems with them. Also, having accounts with at least 2 books vastly increases your flexibility & earning potential.
2) When possible, take advantage of reduced juice options over any bonus offered. It is FAR more valuable in the long run as it reduces your breakeven winning percentage dramatically.
3) Your long term success in the industry is defined by how you manage the hot and cold streaks associated with gambling. Maybe you'll win 55% of wagers over an extended period (which may not sound impressive, but would actually yield a strong profit margin), but that span will be full of ups and downs. Have a well defined notion of what your maximum wager should be for one event and if you're running cold, there's no shame in cutting down that bet size for a bit or taking a few days off to clear your head. On that same note, not everyone is cut out for sports betting. Decide whether you can take the stress before you lose a lot of money.
4) Parlays are only for fun. Stick to straight wagers if you're serious about sports betting. Books generate a substantial portion of their revenue from parlays and teasers.
5) Don't chase your losses. It's SO tempting sometimes but is a long term losing strategy. You need to be able to move on quickly from a loss and not let it affect your future plays.
6) Don't tail other people's picks or pay for handicapper's services. You're responsible for your money and if you're not making your own selections, you're eventually going to be handing your money over to the books (or even worse, to the touts). Tailing teaches you nothing and you'll never develop your own skills.
7) Learn to handicap. I repeat, if you're not making your own selections, you're not going to be a long term winner. There are numerous threads about the different handicapping methods and techniques, as well as numerous proven cappers to learn from at SBR. Justin7 (one of the mods) is also publishing a book later this summer that should be a very comprehensive guide. In general, you need to be able to establish what a fair price is for a particular matchup so you can compare it to what is being offered and identify where there is value.
8) Keep records of your plays. They will help you learn from your mistakes and maintain greater discipline.
9) Pick one sport to start in and master it before you spread your focus to others. Trying to learn multiple sports at the same time is tough.
10) Do your homework about how betting actually works. Prices associated for spreads/totals in major sports are governed by the market (just like the prices of stocks/commodities/etc). Lines open at certain values set by the linemakers first by using statistics and then adjusting them to meet with public opinion so that they will hopefully generate equal betting on both sides (a perceived fair line). The books' goal is to have even betting (or rather equal money) on both sides so that they can take their 10% vig off the top and pay off the winners with the losers money, thus guaranteeing their profit margin.
The market can generally be considered to become more efficient closer to the start of the game. This means, that it's very important where a line opens, which way it moves (and how), and where it closes. Lines move as the books try to make one side more attractive to bettors so that the money evens out. The bottom line for you is to always try to beat the closing line and you do that by accurately assigning value to a matchup and then buying at the better price before the line moves, not buying into a line that has already moved.
11) Math Skills. If you don't have them, get some. Assigning value to matchups means at least a basic understanding of Expected Value, Binomial probabilities, Poisson distributions, & Pythagorean expectation. They sound complicated, but there are numerous resources online and in the Think Tank to reference as you work your way through them. The time spent on these will pay you back tenfold. Pay special attention to the ability to convert different odds formats to compare value, and how to calculate the value of points on a spread using push probabilities.
12) Excel. Learn how to use it. Many of the calculations you'll be doing are repetitive and strong command of Excel means being able to handicap much more efficiently. You need to develop methods to handicap games as quickly as possible so you can identify potential value and then focus on those selected games.
13) Line movement. Mentioned above, it's the pulse of the industry. It offers you a chance to observe how the books react to money placed on each side and can often provide hints as to what their opinions are on matchups. Handicapping comes first, but this is a good aspect to study later on.
Last edited by suicidekings; 06-22-10 at 02:43 AM.
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People who nominated: Wyrwijedlica, LVBOUND, Bill Dozer, rfr3sh, xraygord, TheBeautifulGame, swagger, Nittany Lion, BuddyBear, ThaWoj, GunShard, MJT1212, chipper, ToxicSteve, Ra77er, DoDeMi, NeedLuck2Win, and NYankees228
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pick winners
THANKS FOR YOUR REPLIES! by the way suicidekings I would have given you more points if I had any lol.
I got him. That was good stuff.Originally Posted by Ella600
Don't spend the 20 cents all in one place suicidekings
Ha. It paid for most of my free $100 at Legends...
1. Never let one person talk you on or off a wager.
2. Never gamble when you're drunk/stoned.
3. Never add plays AFTER you have it set in your mind, that that's all you're going to play for the day.
Nice write ups Suicekings!
TA.......Best advice I've seen. Unfortunately, easier said than done.
1. Never let one person talk you on or off a wager.
2. Never gamble when you're drunk/stoned.
3. Never add plays AFTER you have it set in your mind, that that's all you're going to play for the day.
Thank you FCMedina.
There is world of difference between increasing a wagering in play when you've found that when cappers a,b and c are on the same with yourself and overall the win rate is higher verses the one on one on/off.
Guilty of breaking this one in the past and it cost me more times than not. There is a world of difference between drunk/stoned verses buzzed and even then if the play wasn't already on your list, you ought pass as there's always more options the next day.
and stay out of the online casino!!
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Good advises! I lost half of my balance betting when I was drunk. Took me 3 weeks to recover... No I am only betting with discipline1. Never let one person talk you on or off a wager.
2. Never gamble when you're drunk/stoned.
3. Never add plays AFTER you have it set in your mind, that that's all you're going to play for the day.
This one one is very important, I used to lost my $$$ on roulette and blackjack.
Follow the treads for awhile and see who puts in legimate work and is interested in making money rather than the guys who want to whine when their tailing picks don't hit 100% and start sh&t with other posters.
Thanks for the info suicidekings
Definetely stay out of online casinos! You will win a little at first and then it will just go downhill from there.
Don't listen to the advice most people give on this site. They are long term losers and really haven't a clue when it comes to sports betting. The only way you're going to be profitable is by learning yourself. Start by reading either Sharp Sports Betting or Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting (preferably both). They are good books because they are based on math instead of some arbitrary whim pulled out of the ass of a loser. Follow that by reading the 2+2 wells in the sports betting forum and posts/threads by Ganchrow on this site. Success is not guaranteed with all this but it will put you on the right path.
Alternatively if you don't feel like doing any of that that look for bets when the +# is bigger than the -#.
Great advice!
Thanks for the input
what do you mean by reading the 2+2 wells in the sports betting forum?
Sorry I should have clarified. Wells are a compendium of knowledge. They are threads where successful gamblers (be it poker or sports gambling in this case) open themselves up to questions from their peers. It is a good source to see the thought process behind a decision from people who actually know what they are doing.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...22&postcount=7
^I understand now thanks for clearing that up.
welcome noobs!
Cool
Hope some advice for beisball
thanks for the great advice
thx for the input everyone!
suicide u need to rite a book
This. As mentioned above as well....almost all the good information on this site is in the Think Tank.
Excellent tips, thank you.
few other minor tidbits
until you know what you're doing- play same amount each game or you may go 4-1 and be up little to nothing
Dont be afraid to play dogs
NFL moneylines on small dogs may be the better play than taking the points
if you like hockey -look at 5dimes and turn heavy favs into small favs (sometimes dogs) using regulation lines and -1 lines
dont obsess over win %- you will lose plenty but small favs & dogs can have a lesser win pct but be up more $$ than the guy picking only -200 favs at 65% clip.
Dont rush to get a bet in-- theres always the next game. If I am not mistaken the two days around All Star game are the only days without games from the major sports
When I first started in college, the game I usually felt the strongest about bit me in the ass more often than not
Careful of the ESPN/(and former player) hype machine, Most were All Pros on the field but they cant pick their nose
Learn from your losses.
track injuries and weather
Be humble
Everyone will have advice ,pick and choose what works best for you
good advice here
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Ella600 gave suicidekings 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
