1. #1
    JeseleyH
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    Beating the closing line calculation

    Hi,

    I was wondering, the perquisite to winning long term is beating the closing line, but how do you calculate by how much % you beat the closing line? Yes rather newbish question but if anyone can explain the calculation then would be appreciated.

    As an example I have a bet that I took at 1.85 and it closed at 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports. I beat the closing line by how much though? Did I beat it by more than by at least 2% which is the Pinnancle's margin?

    The way I was thinking is just divide by 1 to give percentage, with 1.78 at 56% and 1.85 at 54%, is that the right way? And is so, basically at that closing line I'm just 'equalling' Pinny's margin of 2% and long term wouldn't make any profit really and would break even or so?

    Thanks in advance guys,
    Cheers.

  2. #2
    Waterstpub87
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    I'm going to convert to American odds because that is what I am familiar with.

    You bet like -118, it closed at -128. If pinnacle quotes -105/-105 pricing, with 5 cents on both sides. The vig free close would be -123/123.

    So you got -118, beating the close by 5 cents. This would be you having approximately a 2.5% hold.

    In real life, you actually beat it by slightly more than that because 1.85 = -117.65, and the close was -128.21

  3. #3
    Bill Dozer
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    A helpful tool is the half point calc. It gives you a general idea of how much you need to beat the spread by to be in the + in different sports.

  4. #4
    JeseleyH
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    Thanks guys, now I was wondering about lines in general.

    Are closing lines as indicative of your long term results in low liquid markets? I'm talking specifically about a market where for example one tipster has big affect, and his pick is going cause usual drop of 10-20% of odds, but after years of profit he has a bad year, the market and the odds wouldnt adjust much as people would pile on his tips, therefore the closing odds wouldn't reflect the actual probability.

    Just in general, would I be right to assume that the lower the liquidity the more subjective the % closing line is?

  5. #5
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by JeseleyH View Post
    Thanks guys, now I was wondering about lines in general.

    Are closing lines as indicative of your long term results in low liquid markets? I'm talking specifically about a market where for example one tipster has big affect, and his pick is going cause usual drop of 10-20% of odds, but after years of profit he has a bad year, the market and the odds wouldnt adjust much as people would pile on his tips, therefore the closing odds wouldn't reflect the actual probability.

    Just in general, would I be right to assume that the lower the liquidity the more subjective the % closing line is?
    The theory is that, Yes, in smaller markets it would matter less.

    Easy way to test:

    Find which games during season moved substantially
    Take the opener in games that moved substrantially
    If you win a significant amount of money, it would signal that beating the closing line works in this market

  6. #6
    laprikon
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    error

    Quote Originally Posted by JeseleyH View Post
    Hi,

    I was wondering, the perquisite to winning long term is beating the closing line, but how do you calculate by how much % you beat the closing line? Yes rather newbish question but if anyone can explain the calculation then would be appreciated.

    As an example I have a bet that I took at 1.85 and it closed at 1.78 on Pinnacle Sports. I beat the closing line by how much though? Did I beat it by more than by at least 2% which is the Pinnancle's margin?

    The way I was thinking is just divide by 1 to give percentage, with 1.78 at 56% and 1.85 at 54%, is that the right way? And is so, basically at that closing line I'm just 'equalling' Pinny's margin of 2% and long term wouldn't make any profit really and would break even or so?

    Thanks in advance guys,
    Cheers.
    i can recommend you undedogchance tracker you can find it at MB site

  7. #7
    jjgold
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    Beating closers still does not mean your going to win , most people do not have the bankrolls to hang in their when things go bad

    Beating closers might be beneficial long term but bankrolls will hurt that theory

  8. #8
    byronbb
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    you can use https://sportsbettingcalcs.com/ to make no-vig lines. No-vig the pinny ML close consider this the "true price" compare it with your bet. So getting +105 on a -105/-105 which is no vig of +100 is worth 2.5% in EV as per the ROI converter. Then you can do things like correctly size your wager with using a 1/4th kelly stake.

  9. #9
    BeatTheJerk
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bill Dozer View Post
    A helpful tool is the half point calc. It gives you a general idea of how much you need to beat the spread by to be in the + in different sports.
    Bill you failed me when you tried to recover my 18k from Sportsbook.com, shame on you pal & f u c k off. Maybe if the money was @ Betislands I could’ve got it back before they went belly up. SBR pushed betislands on us like a whore in heat & they ultimately stole millions from customers.

  10. #10
    lonegambler23
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    Quote Originally Posted by jjgold View Post
    Beating closers still does not mean your going to win , most people do not have the bankrolls to hang in their when things go bad

    Beating closers might be beneficial long term but bankrolls will hurt that theory
    grow a sack and start winning gold. enough with the negative nancy

  11. #11
    jjgold
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