[hubster]

Hey everyone new to the forum saying hey. I bet exclusively boxing and mma because those are the only sports I watch. For the boxing and mma bettors I am curious about your results. I started betting about 7 months thinking that I am pretty good at predicting outcomes. If it comes down to just picking winners then I am very accurate but just betting on the favorites is obviously not a good strategy. Towards the beginning I bet on fights where I was sure of the winner and tried to find the best odds that I can. I would bet as much as 10% of my bankroll on picks. My success rate in picks were high but my betting results were volatile. In the long run my bankroll was going increasing but there was quite a bit of volatility. I then switched to a system where I pretty much only bet on even money fights and on underdogs where I feel the fighter has significantly better chances then the oddsmakers have them. This way I don't need to be anywhere near as accurate to make profit but it is more difficult. I make an average of about 5 bets per week, and have found that there is a lot less volatility with this strategy. I have been averaging an 1.5% increase every week in my bankroll. The largest drop I have had was 1.5% and the biggest increase for the week was about 7%. The average like I said right now is 1.5%. For those that bet in boxing and mma can you tell me how much you average per week to give me an idea of where I am at? Thanks

[TheCalculator]

Welcome!

It sounds like you've got a solid strategy that's working for you. Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

Looking forward to hearing your picks, strategies and progress.

[zonedave]

this sounds interesting, keep us updated on you progress

[v1y]

i bet like a madman and experienced ridiculous growth.

#1 rule for betting: never bet against someone you've never seen fight.
#2 rule: if you're going to bet a -300 favourite or better, you better be damn sure you know what you're doing.

[hubster]

i bet like a madman and experienced ridiculous growth.

#1 rule for betting: never bet against someone you've never seen fight.
#2 rule: if you're going to bet a -300 favourite or better, you better be damn sure you know what you're doing.

Thanks. I actually do end up sort of breaking the first rule. I used to only bet when I knew both fighters however those fights don't happen every week and many times the odds would be crap. My goal is to bet every week so I bet on many fight where I have never seen either fighter. I do quite a bit of research and usually I can find some videos of both fighters to analyze their styles however I have placed bets on fights where I haven't see one of the boxers fight before with success so until I see my profits drop on those fights I will continue.

Rule number 2 I totally agree but at this point I pretty much phased out those bets especially in mma fights which can end so easily with the small gloves and the cuts that can end fights easily.

[Giblets]

I personally see almost no value in betting on favorites -400 or lower. I broke my rule when I bet on Jon Jones vs Rampage and I regretted it as soon as Jones started crawling around leaving his face exposed at the beginning of the fight. Fighters get sick or injured and don't call off the fight way too often. That and inconsistent judging keeps me away from heavy favorites.

[jacktheknife]

I personally see almost no value in betting on favorites -400 or lower. I broke my rule when I bet on Jon Jones vs Rampage and I regretted it as soon as Jones started crawling around leaving his face exposed at the beginning of the fight. Fighters get sick or injured and don't call off the fight way too often. That and inconsistent judging keeps me away from heavy favorites.

I've made more money then I've lost parleying some heavy favorites. Last I checked, I believe favorites over -300 in the UFC were something like 26-5 for the first half of the year or so. I remember because one of those upsets was Tito over Bader, which this humble punter bet on, thank you very much.

[Kaladarus]

Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.

[NunyaBidness]

Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.

There it is.

[Giblets]

I've made more money then I've lost parleying some heavy favorites. Last I checked, I believe favorites over -300 in the UFC were something like 26-5 for the first half of the year or so. I remember because one of those upsets was Tito over Bader, which this humble punter bet on, thank you very much.

Hmmm if that 26-5 is true I should probably rethink my bets. It's probably all the huge dogs in non UFC events that seem to be winning a lot that has turned me off. Either that or my handicapping of mismatches suck!!!!

[hubster]

Put some numbers together and do your research. You don't need to bet -150/+150 range only. This limits your opportunities to make money. Any line regardless of the number can hold value. -2000/+2000 lines can hold value. What you decide to do with those lines and what you can do based on your bankroll are separate things.

Oh I go higher than +150 all the time. I've bet on +475 if I thought the oddsmakers have it wrong but now adays I will rarely go lower than -150 especially for mma.

[Vaughany]

I never bet straight up on a line worse than -225 unless I'm confident the fighter has an advantage in all areas - i.e Hominick against Leonard Garcia - but even then I won't bet on a fighter straight up at worse than -300 as I think there is always more value to be found in props - I.e taking Jon Jones Sub of the Night against Bader at +700 instead of Bones straight up at -350 or whatever it was.

[NunyaBidness]

I never bet a line worse than -300 unless I think the fighter wins more than 75% of the time. I never bet a line worse than -900 unless the fighter wins more than 90% of the time, I never bet a line worse than -1900 unless I think the fighter wins more than 95% of the time.

[Vaughany]

I never bet a line worse than -300 unless I think the fighter wins more than 75% of the time. I never bet a line worse than -900 unless the fighter wins more than 90% of the time, I never bet a line worse than -1900 unless I think the fighter wins more than 95% of the time.

ha This is right in principle, but just because you think a fighter wins 75% doesn't mean you are necessarily right though does it? For you it might be okay because you know how to use Kelly criterion, an idea of bankroll management etc... but for a newbie who doesn't have a lot experience, doesn't use Kelly betting etc... I think it's safer to have certain parameters that they follow. How does one factor in potential for a dodgy decision? How do you factor in potential for somebody getting injured half way through the fight? How do you factor in the potential for Matt Lucas getting a point taken away for spitting out his mouth-guard?! What happens if a noob to MMA betting has a £100 to his name and thinks that Jon Jones beats Machida 95% of the time so throws all 100 on Jones at -450 then Jones gets disqualified for throwing 12to6 elbows?

[PunisherIND]

Hmmm if that 26-5 is true I should probably rethink my bets. It's probably all the huge dogs in non UFC events that seem to be winning a lot that has turned me off. Either that or my handicapping of mismatches suck!!!!

thats about right for the first half of the year, but there have been more big upsets in the second half:

uyenoyama over kid yamamoto
anthony perosh over diabate
bartimus over tyson griffin
lazuon over guillard
hunt over rothwell
justin edwards over jorge lopez
ludwig over sodallah

i was personally burned by griffin, guillard and sodallah (as well as bader earlier in the year). that said, i do think you can do quite well parlaying big favorites. i'm up about 70 units on the year strictly on parlays on big favs.

[TheCalculator]

ha This is right in principle, but just because you think a fighter wins 75% doesn't mean you are necessarily right though does it? For you it might be okay because you know how to use Kelly criterion, an idea of bankroll management etc... but for a newbie who doesn't have a lot experience, doesn't use Kelly betting etc... I think it's safer to have certain parameters that they follow. How does one factor in potential for a dodgy decision? How do you factor in potential for somebody getting injured half way through the fight? How do you factor in the potential for Matt Lucas getting a point taken away for spitting out his mouth-guard?! What happens if a noob to MMA betting has a £100 to his name and thinks that Jon Jones beats Machida 95% of the time so throws all 100 on Jones at -450 then Jones gets disqualified for throwing 12to6 elbows?

What Vaughany is referring too is the UNPREDICTABLE NON-LINEAR nature of fighting, judging and life itself. When you look at heavier weight classes -- there's more KO-1-punch power elements to deal with. What if a guy is sick the day of the fight? Injured? Had a horrible weight cut? No longer motivated? Had a horrible camp? Personal problems? Bribed to lose?

We all do our best to factor those in -- but most of these elements are unknowable most of the time.

[Vaughany]

thats about right for the first half of the year, but there have been more big upsets in the second half:

uyenoyama over kid yamamoto
anthony perosh over diabate
bartimus over tyson griffin
lazuon over guillard
hunt over rothwell
justin edwards over jorge lopez
ludwig over sodallah

i was personally burned by griffin, guillard and sodallah (as well as bader earlier in the year). that said, i do think you can do quite well parlaying big favorites. i'm up about 70 units on the year strictly on parlays on big favs.

The last event alone was 7 favourites and 5 dogs

[hubster]

What Vaughany is referring too is the UNPREDICTABLE NON-LINEAR nature of fighting, judging and life itself. When you look at heavier weight classes -- there's more KO-1-punch power elements to deal with. What if a guy is sick the day of the fight? Injured? Had a horrible weight cut? No longer motivated? Had a horrible camp? Personal problems? Bribed to lose?

We all do our best to factor those in -- but most of these elements are unknowable most of the time.

Yes indeed. Especially in mma with smaller gloves it is so easy to get knocked out so if a lucky punch lands it may end the fight. Who woulda though GSP would get knocked out by Matt Serra in their first meeting

[varkolek]

For those that bet in boxing and mma can you tell me how much you average per week to give me an idea of where I am at? Thanks

I started gambling seriously a few months before the end of last year. I had my money tied up in a deposit bonus thing with a rollover requirement, and was placing a lot of bad bets but I doubled my bankroll in about 2 months, then lost that whole profit. So last year made nothing.

Since the start of this year I've increased my bankroll by a bit more than 5X. At the start of the year I was doing a lot of dumb things like betting on fighters I hadn't seen footage of etc. Before August I think I went 3 months with a bankroll increase of only 50%.

At about August my download quota increased a lot so I could finally download footage of fighters as needed. In September I increased my banrkoll by about 50%. October I made nothing, lost about $5 or $10. October didn't have many events and I lost a stupid bet on Bellator. This month I'm up by about $400. I don't know what I make a week, for example, in October nothing or a negative amount.

I usually work more than 50 hours a week, so I don't get a chance to research every match I'd like or bet on most fights on the card. On average, I probably make less a week gambling than I do in 1 day of work. Work is guaranteed income, but next year if my average weekly profits are more than I make in a day's work, I may cut back to less than 40 hours a week so I can get a few more bets in. At the moment it's more productive to work than gamble, and I never turn down shifts because last year was very difficult for me financially.

[jacktheknife]

The last event alone was 7 favourites and 5 dogs

7 big favorites and 5 small dogs, as you recall. Not a bad illustration to the point.

[hubster]

So I listed my betting strategy and have been reading up on the Kelly Criterion lately. Anyone hear exclusively use kelly for boxing/mma picks and is it useful for those kinds of bets or is it better suited for other sports?

[TheCalculator]

Here's a whole thread about it:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/boxing-mma...o-you-use.html

I think NunyaBidness is one of the heaviest bettors here (in terms of sizes of bets and probably size of roll) and he uses it.

I also use it -- however I'm in your boat bro. Just getting started. And I've made mistakes (over estimating edge and going full kelly).

[NunyaBidness]

ha This is right in principle, but just because you think a fighter wins 75% doesn't mean you are necessarily right though does it? For you it might be okay because you know how to use Kelly criterion, an idea of bankroll management etc... but for a newbie who doesn't have a lot experience, doesn't use Kelly betting etc... I think it's safer to have certain parameters that they follow. How does one factor in potential for a dodgy decision? How do you factor in potential for somebody getting injured half way through the fight? How do you factor in the potential for Matt Lucas getting a point taken away for spitting out his mouth-guard?! What happens if a noob to MMA betting has a £100 to his name and thinks that Jon Jones beats Machida 95% of the time so throws all 100 on Jones at -450 then Jones gets disqualified for throwing 12to6 elbows?

No, estimations are wildly off, more often than not. I look over cards when I'm done and make a estimation of what the true line should have been.

But, you're off in both directions, so it tends to average out.

Once, you have a signifcant churn and your ROI has converged, AND you're beating closers regularly you can be certain that the trend will continue. Individual events don't matter very much.

In regards to the noob with a tiny bankroll, well I would say good job getting that bet down. That line was well off, Jones should've been -1400 or worse. If you're bankroll is that small then its not really a bankroll because it's easily replaceable, and I would advising gambling hard to turn it into something meaningful, OR if it isn't easily replaceable your time would be better spent getting a second job, and starting with something significant. It's hard to turn $100 into $2000, but its easy to turn $2000 into $5000.

[Mr Handicapable]

I'm no MMA expert and don't bet often due to the crazy lines but I guess some of the same principles from football betting would still apply. The public favorites always get overbet so there is some value going against them. I'm a Fedor fan and I saw how much he struggled with a tomato can like Brett Rogers so I figured Werdum or Bigfoot Silva were getting great value. Personally I've done well with small dogs....cashed nicely at +120 with Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin a while back. Overall I would say the lines are so crazy that betting on MMA should be strictly recreational. For instance baseball has a dime line (-120 +110), football 20 cent line while MMA is always 30 or more?

[NunyaBidness]

I'm no MMA expert and don't bet often due to the crazy lines but I guess some of the same principles from football betting would still apply. The public favorites always get overbet so there is some value going against them. I'm a Fedor fan and I saw how much he struggled with a tomato can like Brett Rogers so I figured Werdum or Bigfoot Silva were getting great value. Personally I've done well with small dogs....cashed nicely at +120 with Forrest Griffin over Rich Franklin a while back. Overall I would say the lines are so crazy that betting on MMA should be strictly recreational. For instance baseball has a dime line (-120 +110), football 20 cent line while MMA is always 30 or more?

Betting is betting it doesn't matter what the sport is.

Public favorites being overvalued is an overvalued idea. In big market games there are people who understand the game and the math more than you and I and anyone we know. They have deep pockets, and if the value was there, they would have already beat the line back to fair.

Small markets always have more juice. Baseball can have a dimeline because it's a pretty well solved game.

There is less vig on a line of +1200/-2000 than there is on a -110/-110 line. The cents don't matter, the overround does.

If you think it should be strictly recreational then you're saying it's not beatable. If it's not beatable, why touch it at all?

[hubster]

I have been playing around with the sbr forum kelly tool. When calculating my win probability do I do that based on what I think the chances are on my pick to win or lets say the odds are -110 I look at my previous -110 bets and look what my percentage was on those bets and calculate based on that?

Also using that calculator how do I calculate a parlay bet?

Thanks

[Vulcan300]

i personally take insight from some of the reputable members on the forum and usually parlay 2-3 fights with a few straight wagers if my initial take on a fight matches up with a majority of others on here. bankroll management is the biggest aspect since my start, one of the books i used to use didn't offer parlays which imo is one of the better sports to utilize them in.

[TheCalculator]

I have been playing around with the sbr forum kelly tool. When calculating my win probability do I do that based on what I think the chances are on my pick to win or lets say the odds are -110 I look at my previous -110 bets and look what my percentage was on those bets and calculate based on that?

Also using that calculator how do I calculate a parlay bet?

Thanks

I also recommend you go half kelly until you've proven that you can do it and it's working for you. You actually get 75% of the eventual gain doing half-kelly with half the risk.

[NunyaBidness]

Also using that calculator how do I calculate a parlay bet?

Thanks

Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.

If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.

[hubster]

Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.

If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.

Thanks!

[hubster]

Multiply your expected win % for each leg of the parlay, enter the result in win probability. Convert the payout to whichever odds your comfortable (decimal is easier here) with, enter your kelly multiplier, and click calculate.

If the numbers seem high you may be overestimating your edge on one or more fights.

Actually I'm a little confused. If lets say I am making three picks for my parlay and my win probability for each pick is 45 percent lets say. Are you saying I multiply 45 X 45 X 45?

[bjpenn85]

0.45 x 0.45 x 0.45 = 0.09 = 9%..wouldnt spend to much money on that parlay

[hubster]

Oh, gotcha. Thanks everybody.

[hubster]

Another question about the SBR kelly calculator. What do I enter for US Odds if the odds are even money?

[NunyaBidness]

100