[cbar4]

Hi im Carlos, from Mexico.

I have been betting for 3 NFL seasons starting with $100, and have won ever $5k (all spent)...

Now I have a $2K BR and want to know how the heck I might do to invest it...

I love all sports, football and mlb are my favs...

I have been reading all day about money management and such, till I got to this forum, it seems like there are a lot of gold nuggets here, just have to put some time in... Im willing to do that...

The pointers I need, where can I read/learn the best strategies, I was betting without a money mgmt strategy, so I would like to know about the kelly stgy and flat bets... wich is better and so...

I would also know where to bet, whats the best book and such, if you can point me in the right direction, I would appreciate it a lot.

Thank you so much for your help.

Saludos desde Mexico
Carlos

[Tom Jane]

As far as a sportsbook, Pinnacle (http://www.pinnaclesports.com/) and 5dimes (http://www.5dimes.com/) are favourites and seem to be pretty well liked around here.

As far as individual bets and money management, this is a solid selection of tools: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-tools/ You seem to be doing well without them, but they're worth checking out.

Lastly, before you make a starting deposit, check out the 'Go Pro' link (http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/sbr-pro/) and get access for some other features.

The basics of bankroll management, as I understand it, is never bet more than 5% of your bankroll on any given play, and only do that high rarely. Higher than that and a bad run will bankrupt you. (Personally, I cheat and will do 10% if it's say Rafa Nadal playing a low ranked player on clay, or some other easy 'guarantee'.) Also, get disciplined to make the majority of bets at 1% or 2% of your bankroll. That way a bad run won't horribly eat into your bankroll. I sometimes make 0.5% bets in a 'just for fun' manner 'just to make this game interesting'. But again, those are slight leans. I'd say bet 5% for 'stone-cold locks', which are rarely prevalent; bet 2% if you're sure on it; bet 1% if you're pretty sure but have some slight doubts; and bet 0.5% if you have a strong lean on a play and want to put money down. Again, you can avoid anything lower or higher than you're comfortable with, because it's your money. Realistically you're looking to hit 55-60% of the time, so you'll have some days at a loss and some days at a win, but over the long term you'll finish up.

Again, that is my basic understanding, but I am in no mean 'hardcore'. I'd be interested to see other, more-thought out, strategies, and was actually thinking of posting something similar. Hopefully this can turn into that discussion. But lastly, post a bunch. Have fun and make some plays public. Track a few players and see how their picks do and match up against you. Most people are here to help out and for friendly camraderie. They shouldn't be your enemies, as we're all (hopefully) winning the sportsbooks' money and not each other's

[cbar4]

Thanks Tom!

Ill be reporting here.. Do you know by Any chance where can I get a good explanation of the kelly strategy?

Thanks again Tom!

[LarryF]

Very nice write up Tom!
Good luck cbar4!

[cover123]

Welcome to the site.

[Goawodone]

Hello everyone,

I am new to this forum and would like to just say hi

[bladesofsteel]

was up

[GunShard]

This is also my 3rd season capping.

My important rules for gambling:

#1. Money management is extremely important. Use a money management system and stick with it religiously. Give yourself a limit per week and know when to quit. You should be using 1% of your bankroll for each bet.

#2 Bet because you can win. Never bet for the action or just because it's your favorite team. Be selective. Pick your spots and wait for the right opportunity.

#3. Pay attention to the lines all the way to the end of the week, try to make profit off the line. Always shop for the best line, Always! You should have an account in multiple books.

#4. Know that you are making profits off of other gamblers, you are not making profit off of the casinos and bookers. That's why they adjust the lines accordingly.

#5. Stay emotionless all the time. Bet like a robot. There's no place for emotions in this profession.

#6. Patience & Discipline is the key. Develop these skills.

#7. Know when to fade the public.

#8. I personally would avoid playing pre season, due to imbalanced teams and teams who are just experimenting. The first few weeks of the NFL regular season is a guessing game.

#9. Pay attention to injuries to important players, it can effect the outcome of a game.

Here are rules I took from someone on the internet:

1. Establish a base line for the game to determine value when a line is more or less than your number. You can do this by using power ratings and weekly adjustment charts to update each team's power rating weekly.

2. Situational handicapping- look for things like revenge, maybe a player is shooting his mouth off, key injuries. Note; linemakers are sharp and generally build the line to compensate for the injury, it's when the public overbets the injury to look at playing the otherside.

3.Statistical handicapping- does a team have a top ranked rushing or passing game going against a low ranked defense. Turnovers?

4. Fundemental handicapping- are their any strong trends or coaching advantages. How well do they play on the road? What is their red zone %, are they able to run the clock out with a lead, etc...