Idaho has a couple decent wins on the season, beat Utah State at home, beat Oregon at Oregon.
This Idaho team also lost to Portland by 13 pts at home, and Portland was terrible on the road this year. Idaho lost on the road at Washington St by 17 pts.
In the conference tournaments Idaho lost to a 5-11 (conference record) San Jose St team while San Francisco lost to Gonzaga by 4.
San Francisco has a 12-3 home record this year with home wins against Gonzaga and Colorado. I would probably argue the WCC was a better conference than the Wac but St Marys last night did not do much to help that argument.
I'm not sure... San Fran seems like a good bet, but I'm not really sure why the spread is so slim.