If I hadn't done a write up, I had them at +105 - which was obviously a silly line by the books - but the line literally moved three points in the ten minutes that it might have taken for me to research a little and write that. Crazy.
NCAAW: GEORGETOWN +18.5 [-110] The Hoyas played UConn pretty tough both times they played, losing by 10 & 16. The way they demolished Maryland in what essentially was a Maryland home game last round was very impressive. UConn has the experience edge at this stage of the tournament, but the Hoya's press has been pesky all season and they have played well against some tough teams all season. Playing in a neutral setting like Philly should help some too.
Making a 0.25 unit play on the VCU ML at +685. That's just to hedge against my original +135 on Kansas to win the region at +135. Guaranteed money that way.
MARCUS MORRIS REBOUNDS OVER 7.5 [-115] Going with the other Morris this time around as Markieff got into foul trouble against Richmond and did not cash the rebounds prop - although he had six in 17 minutes. Still with a banger like Jamie Skeen in for VCU, I feel better going with Marcus today. Marcus has only had as many as four fouls once in more than ten games for KU. He has double figure boards in four of the last seven and eight boards or better in 17 of 36. VCU is another team that normally is out-rebounded and going against one of the best plus rebounding teams figures to have troubles again. The Rams were demolished on the boards by FSU 45-28 & only won the battle of the boards once in the tournament [USC]. KU is +24 over their three games so far. Skeen should draw Markieff a bit more than Marcus which should likely leave Marcus open to rebound against less physically impossing players. Consider FSU had four players with nine rebounds or better and I think you could reasonably expect the KU trio of bigs in the Morri & THomas Robinson to have big days on the boards if the Jayhawks are to advance to Houston.
JOHN HENSON REBOUNDS OVER 11 [+100] Henson has been a rebounding beast. He has 15 straight games with double digit boards, only two of those have not seen Henson grab at least 11 rebound. In the regular season meeting with Kentucky, Henson snatched 12 boards. What is amazing about Henson is that he has not had a single game this season where he's picked up four fouls. Not ONE! That means he should see plenty of court-time & he's routinely getting 30+ minutes for the Heels here down the stretch. Kentucky will have a tough time against with Zeller & Henson going against Jones & Harrelson. Both Kentucky post players have plenty of beef, but lack the length & athletic ability - especially of Henson. UNC has been the best rebounding team in the country numbers wise and if they're to advance to the Final Four - they will need to dominate the boards again.
NCAAW: DePAUL +210 This is a gut pick as I thought one of the two seeds would go down this round and Duke seems the likeliest candidate. The Blue Devils struggled mightily at home against Marist in the 2nd round, but survived. Duke sometimes has trouble scoring if their defense isn't forcing turnovers. DePaul took extremely good care of the ball against Penn State with just 13 turnovers that made up for a lack of shooting in their one point win. The keys for DePaul will be to keep the tempo quick and to read Duke's multiple defensive looks that will include a full court press, zone and man-2-man. If DePaul can keep turnovers down and make some shots in transition against Duke ...
Glad I hedged the KU regional bet, they are probably playing their worst game of the year right now. Not guarding shooters. Turning the ball over. Missing FTs left & right - which I thought would be a problem at some point, but damn.
Marcus Morris prop cashed before the half. At least something good has come out of this debacle for KU. Gonna win on the VCU moneyline to cover the future bet + make a little. Gonna find something else to watch till the Carolina-Kentucky game because this shit is over. Lock that down.
NCAAW: BAYLOR -15.5 [-110] This will easily be the toughest team Wisconsin-Green Bay has played all season. Their one loss season has been a dream to this point, but I think it turns into a nightmare here. This is an experienced Baylor squad with a Championship-caliber coach and talent all over the floor. It's not just about Griner in the post. Their freshman PG Odyssey Sims is already a solid leader and can dominate at times. They also have another big post presence in Destiny Williams who could benefit from double teams on Griner today. Being on this stage at this point is a great achievement for GB, but for Baylor this is expected and they are expected to win big today. I think if Baylor starts fast, they can wear down GB as the game goes on.
Big Dance: 19-15 [+2.86]
Little Dances: 5-4 [+1.85]
Beaver Ball: 11-5 [+6.05]
Poor finish by Baylor. They had the cover with about a minute to go, but missed three FTs and let GB hoist up some deep threes - won by 10. Oh well. Grind on.
Won quite a bit on the tournament. Softest lines you can find when they open. Books don't know how to set them. LoL at the books. If you hit the lines early, you get some good stuff.
Last edited by EaglesPhan36; 03-27-11 at 09:00 PM.
BUTLER +375 Booking this tonight. I think given a full week's preparation and his track record, I full expect Brad Stevens to craft a winning game plan for Butler. Shaka Smart is a solid coach, but Stevens has already proven in the last two tournaments that not only can he win with less talent, he can win as ugly as need be. Obviously Butler has to win against VCU for this to have solid value, but I'm banking on the win for Butler - so getting +375 for a team I believe will be back in the Championship Game should yield a better price today than they will offer in the title game, I think.
NCAAW: NOTRE DAME-TENNESSEE OVER 140 [-110] Booking early again as these lines will begin to move quickly. Tennessee loves pushing the tempo and the Lady Vols have now scored 263 points in three tourney games. The last two have seen them give up 70+ as well to Marquette & Ohio State. Notre Dame is fully capable of putting points up as well with 67 or better in each tourney game and 77 & 78 in the last two. The Irish scored well against some of the best teams in the country, including UConn and don't mind an up-tempo game also.
Tough calls, I'd probably side with both dogs but I would not be shocked by any result tonight. Tennessee has flirted with danger a bit in this tournament but has wound up winning by 9-10 points even when their defense is not great. Stanford beat Gonzaga earlier in the season on Gonzaga's home court by six. Stanford also looked vulnerable against UNC with a poor shooting night. I definitely don't think any of the #1s is as unbeatable as they were made out to be pre-tournament & I think one of them is going to lose. The one I think that is most vulnerable is Baylor because Texas A&M has seen them three times and knows what to expect with Griner. Would probably rank Stanford 2nd most likely simply because Gonzaga is basically playing a home game in Spokane against them and they took them to the wire before although with a nine point line it makes you think twice perhaps because it seems "too easy."
NCAAW: TEXAS A&M +115 You can bet A&M looked at their bracket and was salivating to get Baylor one more time. The two Big 12 foes played three times this year with the Bears winning all three, but by a combined 15 points. The common theme in all three were poor overall shooting from A&M, especially from deep. A&M though comes in here functioning on all cylinders and playing stifling defense to boot. Baylor has shown some defensive flaws in their past two NCAA games, espcially allowing Wisconsin-Green Bay to get a lot of open three point looks. A&M needs to be patient and probe the defense inside and pop it back outside instead of forcing threes. Danielle Adams is A&M's best player and she'll be the barometer tonight. Adams must shoot well and lead her team tonight. If she sniffs 20 points, the Lady Aggies should be at the end with a chance to win.
Originally Posted by Beaver ball yields mo money, mo money, mo money. :slaphappy [/COLOR
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Never again for me....happened to me last night with UT and tonight with Baylor. First and last time to ever bet on this boring sport. I love to watch women do just about everything but I can't even stand to watch them play basketball!! Softball probably falls in that category too.
I don't watch it, just bet on it and try to get on the right side. A&M game might have been my last Beaver Ball play. Had waited for that one for most of the tournament and A&M was very good to me with a couple money line wins. Women's really does present a good money making opportunity every year simply because for most of the tournament - the books are scrambling to try and get the lines right since they don't post them all year. Other than this time of year, you couldn't pay me to even fake interest in beaver ball.
CBI: CREIGHTON-OREGON OVER 146 [-105] OVERs have run rampant for both teams in the postseason with Creighton nailing OVERs in four straight & Oregon doing it in three of four. Creighton has been especially bullish in the scoring department with 80+ in all four postseason games. The Ducks have been quacking nicely as well with 76 or more in their last three. Oregon home games have gone OVERs in 13 of 20. First game in this best of three format featured solid shooting with the Blue Jays hitting 55% and Oregon 45%. 19 combined threes. The only real question mark will be can Creighton continue their blistering offensive pace on the road? I think if the Ducks establish their quicker tempo - they can force Creighton to keep up. Creighton should look for their threes again tonight as Oregon has struggled at 40% yielded over their last five.
NIT FINAL: JaMYCHAL GREEN TOTAL REBOUNDS OVER 7 [-115] For me, this is all about how well Green does in staying out of foul trouble. I think if he can manage 30 minutes on the floor in this game, then this will have a solid shot of at least pushing. He grabbed at least seven rebounds in 21 of Bama's 33 games this season. Wichita State has some quality bigs in Stutz, Blair & Durley. From a size and quickness standpoint, I'd expect Durley or Blair to draw Green for the most part.
Big Dance: 19-15 [+2.86]
Little Dances: 5-6 [-0.35]
Beaver Ball: 13-6 [+7.10]
Green is an idiot. Picked up two fouls because he's out there throwing his weight around instead of playing the game. He probably would have fouled out if the coach left him in the whole game because he deserved a couple more fouls. Moron.
Getting these in now as I am heading to Houston for the Final Four today and probably won't have a ton of time to post. Good luck with your wagers!
FINAL FOUR: VCU-BUTLER LARGEST LEAD OVER 12.5 [-115]
This is a gut play based on the styles of these two teams. I can see one team or the other getting a substantial lead at some point in the game even if the final winds up being close. VCU will play their pressing style with the emphasis on speeding the game up, causing turnovers and getting open threes. As we've seen when this is working, VCU is deadly and can go on huge runs. Butler has also gone through some wicked cold snaps shooting the rock this tournament. For Butler, they want a half court game. They want to bog VCU down into running their sets against their stifling half court defense. This is where Butler could definitely keep the Rams at-bay & if they convert on the other end, again there could be some big runs this time for the Bulldogs.
FINAL FOUR: JEREMY LAMB TOTAL POINTS OVER 15.5 [+110]
Tough game to call on a side or the total IMO with Kentucky & UConn, so I'm going prop shopping again. Lamb has become a legit scoring option not named Kemba Walker for this team. Lamb is averaging a shade over 18 ppg during the NCAAs. Lamb is shooting a red hot 27/46 from the field during the tournament, 8/10 from deep. He's even getting to the line a few times per game with 11/15 from the line so far. He has upped his attempts as well with double digit attempts in the last two games, including a season-high 19 FGAs vs. Arizona. If he takes more than a dozen shots, I'll feel good about this one. Fouls have not been an issue and he played all 40 minutes vs. Kentucky. Lamb barely made a dent in the first meeting between these two, playing just 12 minutes. If UConn is going to make the Championship Game, Lamb is going to need to continue to hit his shots when teams pay too much attention to Walker. 14 was his low output in the tournament against Cincinnati.
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Originally Posted by Beaver ball yields mo money, mo money, mo money. :slaphappy [/COLOR
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