[Snowball]

The plan is to cover a handful of teams, giving yourself
a good chance to win at least +100.
What is your group ?
Select a number of teams that will result in at least +100
if one of them wins, and no more.
This way we will build consensus among posters here
on who should be covered.

DUKE 4 to 1
OHIO ST 9 to 2
KANSAS 17 to 4
PITTSBURGH 6 to 1
KENTUCKY 15 to 1
NORTH CAROLINA 18 to 1
NOTRE DAME 18 to 1
SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1
TEXAS 20 to 1
LOUISVILLE 22 to 1
FLORIDA 25 to 1
SYRACUSE 25 to 1
PURDUE 25 to 1
CONNECTICUT 25 to 1
BYU 35 to 1
KANSAS ST 35 to 1
WASHINGTON 45 to 1
WISCONSIN 50 to 1
ST. JOHNS 50 to 1
ARIZONA 75 to 1
MICHIGAN ST 75 to 1
UTAH ST 75 to 1
GONZAGA 75 to 1
WEST VIRGINIA 100 to 1
GEORGETOWN 100 to 1
CINCINNATI 100 to 1
UNLV 100 to 1
ILLINOIS 100 to 1
UCLA 125 to 1
MARQUETTE 125 to 1
VANDERBILT 150 to 1
TEMPLE 150 to 1
VILLANOVA 150 to 1
OLD DOMINION 150 to 1
MISSOURI 150 to 1
PENN ST 175 to 1
FLORIDA ST 200 to 1
MEMPHIS 200 to 1
MICHIGAN 200 to 1
TENNESSEE 200 to 1
BUTLER 200 to 1
XAVIER 250 to 1
TEXAS A&M 250 to 1
GEORGE MASON 250 to 1
USC 250 to 1
CLEMSON 250 to 1
BELMONT 250 to 1
RICHMOND 300 to 1
MOREHEAD STATE 300 to 1
OAKLAND 300 to 1
GEORGIA 350 to 1
VA COMMONWEALTH 350 to 1
INDIANA ST 400 to 1
ST. PETERS 400 to 1
AKRON 400 to 1
WOFFORD 400 to 1
BUCKNELL 500 to 1
PRINCETON 500 to 1
CAL SANTA BARBARA 500 to 1
NO. COLORADO 500 to 1
UAB 500 to 1
LONG ISLAND 1000 to 1
TEX SAN ANTONIO 1000 to 1
ALABAMA ST 1000 to 1
BOSTON U 1000 to 1
NC ASHEVILLE 1000 to 1
ARKANSAS LR 1000 to 1
HAMPTON 1000 to 1

[jmilacek]

Based on tournament history, we can cut off the list here.

1 DUKE 4 to 1
1 OHIO ST 9 to 2
1 KANSAS 17 to 4
1 PITTSBURGH 6 to 1

2 NORTH CAROLINA 18 to 1
2 NOTRE DAME 18 to 1
2 SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1
2 FLORIDA 25 to 1

3 SYRACUSE 25 to 1
3 PURDUE 25 to 1
3 CONNECTICUT 25 to 1
3 BYU 35 to 1

4 KENTUCKY 15 to 1
4 TEXAS 20 to 1
4 LOUISVILLE 22 to 1
4 WISCONSIN 50 to 1

5 WEST VIRGINIA 100 to 1
5 ARIZONA 75 to 1
5 KANSAS ST 35 to 1
5 VANDERBILT 150 to 1

6 ST. JOHNS 50 to 1
6 CINCINNATI 100 to 1
6 GEORGETOWN 100 to 1
6 XAVIER 250 to 1

7 UCLA 125 to 1
7 WASHINGTON 45 to 1
7 TEMPLE 150 to 1
7 TEXAS A&M 250 to 1

8 UNLV 100 to 1
8 BUTLER 200 to 1
8 GEORGE MASON 250 to 1
8 MICHIGAN 200 to 1



Of champions, 9 of the last ten finished the season with at least +14.1 ppg more than their opponents. Let's (arbitrarily) adjust this down to, say, 10, and cut off from there.


1 DUKE 4 to 1
1 OHIO ST 9 to 2
1 KANSAS 17 to 4
1 PITTSBURGH 6 to 1

2 NOTRE DAME 18 to 1
2 SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1
2 FLORIDA 25 to 1

3 SYRACUSE 25 to 1
3 PURDUE 25 to 1
3 BYU 35 to 1

4 KENTUCKY 15 to 1
4 TEXAS 20 to 1
4 LOUISVILLE 22 to 1

7 WASHINGTON 45 to 1
7 TEXAS A&M 250 to 1

8 GEORGE MASON 250 to 1

No team has ever won while losing the first game of their conference tournament. See ya, Pitt.

I'm also just going to drop the 7s and 8s, because I feel like it.

1 DUKE 4 to 1
1 OHIO ST 9 to 2
1 KANSAS 17 to 4
2 NOTRE DAME 18 to 1
2 SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1
2 FLORIDA 25 to 1
3 SYRACUSE 25 to 1
3 PURDUE 25 to 1
3 BYU 35 to 1
4 KENTUCKY 15 to 1
4 TEXAS 20 to 1
4 LOUISVILLE 22 to 1

So we're left with 12 teams. If you bet $100 on all of them, you'd be obviously down $1200.

Scenarios where each team wins:

1 DUKE 4 to 1 -$700
1 OHIO ST 9 to 2 -$650
1 KANSAS 17 to 4 -$675
2 NOTRE DAME 18 to 1 +$600
2 SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1 +$800
2 FLORIDA 25 to 1 +$1300
3 SYRACUSE 25 to 1 +$1300
3 PURDUE 25 to 1 +$1300
3 BYU 35 to 1 +$2300
4 KENTUCKY 15 to 1 +300
4 TEXAS 20 to 1 +$800
4 LOUISVILLE 22 to 1 +$1000

If you really don't think Duke, OSU or Kansas is going to win, you should do this.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

How could you not think either Duke, OSU or Kansas will win.

I understand your strategy is but those 3 teams can very well win it obviously. The books have considered every single angle there is when a tournament like this is around the corner.

[Snowball]

thanks for the historicals, jm, but I'm not ruling out PITT just because
they lost by a buzzerbeater basket to UConn.
Relying too much on marginal historical trends smacks of superstition.
Cutting off anything over an 8 seed of course makes more sense, although
the day will probably come when that trend loses eventually.

In order for this approach to work, at least one of the top 3 has to be included
possibly even 2/3 of OSU, Duke, Kansas, but not all.

[jmilacek]

Fair enough. Add Pitt back in:

1 DUKE 4 to 1 -$800
1 OHIO ST 9 to 2 -$750
1 KANSAS 17 to 4 -$775
1 PITTSBURGH 6 to 1-$600
2 NOTRE DAME 18 to 1 +$500
2 SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1 +$700
2 FLORIDA 25 to 1 +$1200
3 SYRACUSE 25 to 1 +$1200
3 PURDUE 25 to 1 +$1200
3 BYU 35 to 1 +$2200
4 KENTUCKY 15 to 1 +$200
4 TEXAS 20 to 1 +$700
4 LOUISVILLE 22 to 1 +$900

[Romanov]

gonna go use the odds in excel. will be back in a few minutes with some results

[jmilacek]

Betting $100 each on all the 1 seeds:

Duke +$100
OSU +$150
Pitt +$300
Kansas +$125

[jmilacek]

Alternatively:

Seed	Team	Odds	Bet Amount	Win
1	DUKE	     4	        $200 	$155 
1	OHIO ST	     4.5	$175 	$142.5 
1	PITT	     6	        $120 	$75
1	KANSAS	     4.25	$150 	-$7.5

[Romanov]

I see value in taking :

NORTH CAROLINA 18 to 1
NOTRE DAME 18 to 1
SAN DIEGO ST 20 to 1
TEXAS 20 to 1
LOUISVILLE 22 to 1
FLORIDA 25 to 1
SYRACUSE 25 to 1
PURDUE 25 to 1
CONNECTICUT 25 to 1



If you put a unit on each, that gives you 9 units bet and the lowest you win is 18 units

[Romanov]

Alternatively:

Seed    Team    Odds    Bet Amount    Win
1    DUKE         4            $200     $355 
1    OHIO ST         4.5    $175     $317.5 
1    PITT         6            $120     $195 
1    KANSAS         4.25    $150     $142.5

Those aren't +100

If duke wins, you LOSE $90

[jmilacek]

See edit...

[Romanov]

See edit...

If duke wins, YOU STILL LOSE MONEY

[jmilacek]

Seed	Team	Odds	Bet Amount	Win
1	DUKE	4	$225 	      $123 
1	OHIO ST	4.5	$195 	      $100.50 
1	PITT	6	$147 	      $105 
1	KANSAS	4.25	$210 	      $115.50

[Romanov]

If you want favorite take:

Kansas and Ohio St and anyone 25-1 or higher. That gives you +100

[Romanov]

Are you retarded? YOU LOSE MONEY

[jmilacek]

If duke wins, YOU STILL LOSE MONEY

Uh, false.

1 DUKE 4 $200 $355
1 OHIO ST 4.5 $175 $317.5
1 PITT 6 $120 $195
1 KANSAS 4.25 $150 $142.5

Total bet amount: $200 + 175 + 120 + 150 = $645

If Duke wins, you get $800 - $645 = $155.

[Romanov]

Uh, false. 1 DUKE 4 $200 $355 1 OHIO ST 4.5 $175 $317.5 1 PITT 6 $120 $195 1 KANSAS 4.25 $150 $142.5 Total bet amount: $200 + 175 + 120 + 150 = $645 If Duke wins, you get $800 - $645 = $155.

Ahh i am the retard

[Romanov]

But that is awful expectation:

You are betting $645 to win $155?

That is basically betting that a 1 seed wins the tournament at -416 odds

[jmilacek]

But that is awful expectation:

You are betting $645 to win $155?

That is basically betting that a 1 seed wins the tournament at -416 odds

Right, I know it is bad in overall terms.

However, I am just saying that if you want to only bet 1 seeds, here are the results.

Not that I would actually do this...

[Snowball]

Romanov, your picks look pretty good, but I would throw in one of the top 3
you have room there.

jmilacek - good work with the top 3 showing how you can cover them and win something
if one of them win.
but the drawback is you won't be able to carry many mid-level teams if you do that.
i'm thinking of pulling at least one of the top 3 out, such as Duke or Kansas
once you do that, you can bet many more teams. I only intend to carry one of the top 3,
I'll say that right now, and it's Ohio St. I don't think Duke can repeat and I don't think Kansas
has what it takes to win it all.
What we really want to have here is a chance to win +500 or more.
it's not necessary to bet much at all on the deeper dogs. A $5.00 bet on 100/1 is $500.
Alternatively you could take all 3 tops but not with a +100 goal, just a break-even goal.
That way less $ has to be spent on them. That idea would be to have them as "insurance bets"
just to cover the action on all the second-tier chances.