1. #1
    raiderfootball46
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    Nevada/ Lous Tech Write up

    Pk em...

    Let me break this down real fast, and Opinions are welcome.

    Nevada is 3-1 in the last AWAY games. These teams are Hawaii (win by 2) San Jose St (win by 8) Boise St ( won by 2) and Utah St ( 45-67 L). All 4 games they were dogs. 2 Points at hawaii, 3.5 at San Jose St, 11.5 at Boise, and 14.5 at Utah St. So what it looks like they are playing good basketball on the road lately. However, they lost their last two games at home. One loss was a good idaho team 16-8 ATS, and Boise St 9-7 ATS.

    Breakdown of last meeting. 66-58 W by Nevada at home. 1/22/11

    Halftime score was 33-28 with LT in the lead. LT shot a horrible 23-64 (.359) from the field and 4-21 (.190) from 3 pt land. Nevada shot 20-42 (.476) from the field and 5-10 (.500) 3 point land. Lt shot 8-10 (.800) from Ft while Nevada shot 21-32 (.656) from the charity stripe. Olu Ashaolu shot 11-19 from the field, while the rest of LT shot 12-45 ( .267). Olu finished with 26 points and Deandre Brown finished with 14 (5-18). Deandre is their "most productive" player for LT, but after watching their last game, they are HORRIBLE without him. He averages 15 a game with 2.5 apg. Deandre is now suspended for the rest of the season. LT is 1-2 without him, barely beating a horrible Georgia St team that averages 62 ppg. They shot .368% from the field in that game and 6-17 .353% from 3 point land. Oh yeah, LT also got to the line 27 times making 17, GA ST only made it 10 times making 4.In conference play, LT is averaging just under 60 ppg while giving up approx 68.

    LT has lost 6 out of 7 games. Nevada has won 7 out of last 11 games.

    Nevada has averaged just under 73 ppg in Conference play with a 44.3% FG. Nevada also get the stripe on average 6 more times per game then LT. Nevada is also big on the boards grabbing 36 ppg. Assist to Turnover % for LT is .67% 334 national rank to Nevadas .89 216 national rank. Nevada has 4 players averaging 10+ ppg, LT has 1. In the first meeting, Malik Story ( Nevadas top scorer) only shot 7 times and had 10 points. Look for him to have a big game tomorrow.

    My play: Nevada pk *****
    Points Awarded:

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  2. #2
    shopbar picks
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    i agree had LT circled early, but they are horrible in league play. Like the wolfpack here also

  3. #3
    raiderfootball46
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  4. #4
    ManBearPig
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    As an avid Nevada fan and know this team all too well and just have this to add. From a non-statistical standpoint I can say this game is the breaking point for the season. If they win, look for them to try and gain some momentum into the WAC tourney in hopes of snagging that auto-bid, which is possible if they play like they believe. Lose here and it's over as I can't see the guys overcoming a loss like this. It was painful enough to watch them lose to two team that they very well could've beaten at home by almost the same exact script. Usually teams are starting to hit a stride and you can see those playing with momentum and those who aren't, they are trying to flip this into a positive which I'm not even sure if they will. The thing with this team is they can become very predictable and fall into bad habits, due to their overall inexperience teams have been able to be them by confusing them with their defensive looks and playing smart offense waiting for them to crack.

    Bottom line is the guys are pissed off after last week and are eager to get out there and show that they can play ball when they put their best effort in and what better team to play after coming off two horrific losses than, LaTech - a team in more turmoil than the Cavs.

    Although they haven't shown to be a great road team, I look for them to come at LT hard and try and put this game away early. LT doesn't have anyone who can hang with Burton (Freshmen of the year by far) and if he does what he knows he can do, he will have a huge game. Malik gets a lot of the press because he scores and hits a lot of 3's, but he's far from the best player. He's a liability on defense, but has shown the ability to get in the land make some good passes when he's not shooting bad shots. If Hunt and Czyz can contribute like they should this will bode very well for them..if they have a bad game this will be a burner.

    I've watched them play almost every game this year and it looks like they don't know what they can actually do on the court yet and let teams get the jump on them early, thus breaking their confidence early. It's hard to constantly overcome deficits every game for an experienced team, which they aren't. If they can play with just the intensity I saw them play the final 2 minutes of both games last week for 30+ minutes LT won't be able to hang. This line is set as a pick em' basically because no one know what Nevada team will show up.

    I expect them to win this by 10+ as I think they are tired of being punked standing there with their feet in the sand and LT is just a not very good team. If they lose, god forbid, you can probably count them out the rest of the year as I see that as a dagger to the heart, as a fan, this is a less than desirable scenario so I'm hoping for the former.
    Last edited by ManBearPig; 03-03-11 at 03:37 AM.
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    vitalyo gave ManBearPig 6 SBR Point(s) for this post.


  5. #5
    raiderfootball46
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    Thanks For the extra added info.

  6. #6
    shopbar picks
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    thanx for the confirmation MBP. Not my thread but appreciate your thoughts.

  7. #7
    vitalyo
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    Tnx for the preview guys

  8. #8
    raiderfootball46
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    Yessir, no problem. If this hits pretty nice, I'll start doing one game per day.

  9. #9
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Im on Nevada +1 I can see this being the equivalent to WED nights game with Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois just a game that gets outta control fast

  10. #10
    ManBearPig
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    Thanks guys...just trying to help how I can. I wouldn't recommend going too big on this as they could lose, but I don't expect it. We've had LT's number lately and the guys are looking for someone to beat up. They have been abnormally chippy in practice this week and coach has had to break some small "disagreements" up. This is good because they all get along pretty well and I think it's good to show a little emotion sometime. Carter is a very tame coach and he has been as hard on them verbally as I've seen so they get the point.

    I like how the sharp money is going back and forth on this one...LT is the wrong side here and I don't care who or what the numbers say, but we'll see what happens tomorrow. I can't say this will be a highly bet game so the line prob won't move off of 1 at all and may close at a PK. People's confidence on NV is down due to last week and this time of year it's what have you done for me lately, so this is a perfect spot to try and get some +EV on the ML as well if you can get NV at +ML.

  11. #11
    CollegeOverUnder
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManBearPig View Post
    Thanks guys...just trying to help how I can. I wouldn't recommend going too big on this as they could lose, but I don't expect it. We've had LT's number lately and the guys are looking for someone to beat up. They have been abnormally chippy in practice this week and coach has had to break some small "disagreements" up. This is good because they all get along pretty well and I think it's good to show a little emotion sometime. Carter is a very tame coach and he has been as hard on them verbally as I've seen so they get the point.

    I like how the sharp money is going back and forth on this one...LT is the wrong side here and I don't care who or what the numbers say, but we'll see what happens tomorrow. I can't say this will be a highly bet game so the line prob won't move off of 1 at all and may close at a PK. People's confidence on NV is down due to last week and this time of year it's what have you done for me lately, so this is a perfect spot to try and get some +EV on the ML as well if you can get NV at +ML.
    I actually think this will be a heavily bet game because of the line being so low


    I for one look for games with lower lines but that might just be me

  12. #12
    raiderfootball46
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    Bump

  13. #13
    raiderfootball46
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    Closer than I thought, but a W none the less. Will have a write up for a game tomorrow in a little.

  14. #14
    shopbar picks
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    a win is a win congrats

  15. #15
    raiderfootball46
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    Yep, did you end up playing with nevada?

  16. #16
    cjwatsonfan32
    Emma Mackey does it for me and idk why
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    I still think the kid is a terrible kid, he doesnt do anything important

  17. #17
    raiderfootball46
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    Quote Originally Posted by cjwatsonfan32 View Post
    I still think the kid is a terrible kid, he doesnt do anything important

    Who?

  18. #18
    ManBearPig
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    I watched the game on a shitty feed and it should've been 8 or 9 pts but couldn't hit a ft to close the game out and gave up some useless pts near the end in the paint. Game went how I feared it would but didn't want to admit it. This is precisely why betting on NV is a risky proposition and I wouldn't recommend playing this on Sat for your own mental well being.

  19. #19
    raiderfootball46
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    Quote Originally Posted by ManBearPig View Post
    I watched the game on a shitty feed and it should've been 8 or 9 pts but couldn't hit a ft to close the game out and gave up some useless pts near the end in the paint. Game went how I feared it would but didn't want to admit it. This is precisely why betting on NV is a risky proposition and I wouldn't recommend playing this on Sat for your own mental well being.

    I had it updated on my phone and saw we were up 9 with 3 mins left so I was happy... checked 2 minutes later only up 3 WTF lol But yeah LT had 26 turnovers and I highlighted the assist/turnover % in my write up ... that DEFINITELY paid off.

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