[agharah1]

This time of the year everybody loves talking about the bubble. There are 38 at large bids this year, here's how they break down.

First, the teams that are either already safely in or will be if they win their remaining cupcake games:

Big East - Pitt, UConn, Louisville, Georgetown, ND, St Johns, Syracuse, WVU, Cinci, Marquette, Villanova.
Big XII - Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Missouri, Kansas State.
SEC - Florida, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee.
ACC - Duke, UNC, FSU.
Big Ten - Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan State.
Pac10 - Arizona, UCLA, Washington.

Assuming the conference tournament winners come from this list, that's 25 at-large bids. Now I know people think the NCAA expanded the number of at large bids for the benefit of the major conferences, but considering the state of the bubble this year and the NCAA's tendency to invite at least one mid-major nobody saw getting a bid each year, I'm going to assume the selection committee will be as deferential to the mid-majors as possible. That means:

3 Atlantic 10 teams: Xavier, Temple, and Richmond.
2 Colonial Athletic teams: George Mason, Old Dominion.
4 Mountain West teams: San Diego State, BYU, UNLV, and Colorado State.
2 Conference USA teams out of Memphis, UAB, UTEP, and Southern Miss.
2 West Coast Conference teams: St. Marys and Gonzaga (even with their extremely low RPI).
2 Missouri Valley teams out of Wichita State, Missouri State, or someone else who wins the conference tourney

That takes another 9 at-large bids. In addition, I suspect that Utah State (even with its extremely weak schedule) and Butler (even with all its terrible losses), would get at-large bids if they don't win their conference tournaments. Assuming one wins and the other doesn't that's another at-large bid taken.

That leaves us with 3 at-large bids left for the following bubble teams (in order by RPI):

Georgia 40, Minnesota 48, Boston College 50, Penn State 62, Virginia Tech 63, Clemson 64, Michigan 65, Alabama 80, Maryland 81 and Baylor 82. Each team has their strengths and flaws, and much will depend on what they do in their remaining games and conference tournaments. If I had to take a guess right now, I'd say the bids would go to:

Boston College: that awful home loss to Miami aside, their RPI is one of the higher ones on the list and 2 of their last 3 games are against Virginia and Wake Forest.

The winner of Georgia @ Alabama: Georgia has the highest RPI on this list and should have no trouble with South Carolina and LSU at home before traveling to Tuscaloosa. As terrible as the SEC West is I just can't see the committee leaving out a major conference team with as many as 12 conference wins.

The third and final at-large will probably go to the remaining team on the list who wins out. Virginia Tech has to play Duke, Maryland has to play @ UNC, Baylor has to play Texas, Penn State has to play Ohio State, Clemson has to play Virginia Tech, Minnesota has to play Penn State and Michigan. If none of these teams distinguishes themselves, there's a good chance a third CAA team like Hofstra or VCU gets a bid.

I could go on, but its probably best to just wait for the games to play out. Still a whole lot of basketball between now and selection sunday.

[oiler]

this is when the season gets good,lets get ready to rumble

[CTOWNsCAPPIN]

Nice write up.

[chunk]

Nice job on this and I think that you're assessments are fairly accurate. But as you said a lot can happen between now and selection Sunday. Conf. tourney performance will be key for several bubble teams as usual. Always a good time of year for roundball fans. Tough time to cap though, more variables, injuries, tight lines, blah blah.